Atlantic Storms - January Part 2

[Evening thunder]

Looking at all the charts I saw yesterday, the forecasts from the Met Office seemed about right to me, So I guess their models and forecast missed any stronger winds\gusts than forecast as well. Also looking at the observations most places do seem to have been reasonably close to what they expected I think, though some of course have been higher. The pressure gradient predicted wasn't the strongest we can get and neither were the predicted winds.

There are also stations that are only gusting to, or below, gale force as well as the ones with stronger winds (they do often seem to have some of the strongest winds though due to their exposure.

Despite that I wouldn't be surprised if they underestimated the winds in some areas, like east of the Pennines perhaps.

Also I would agree that the warnings could have been more widespread, I tend to think they are conservative with their wind warnings if anything, and winds below their threshold can cause disruption and risk. A gust of 40mph for example is pretty strong and most people would probably over estimate it's speed if they didn't have equipment to record it. I haven't looked in detail but it does seem some European countries issue lower end warnings or advisories with a lower threshold.

Pretty windy for here, my station is showing an average of 24mph gusting to 40mph at the moment. There was the gust of 44mph last night, the strongest I've recorded since November 2009. Edit: 41mph just then.

Exeter airport was averaging 36mph gusting to 52mph, the MetO Forecast yesterday went for gusts of 50mph for Exeter I think.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Terminal Moraine]

The mean wind speed reached 57 mph here around 0300 with a gust of 89 mph at 0258, one of the top ten gusts I've recorded in the last 35 years. Reports of several local roads being closed due to fallen trees.

I'm surprised the weather warning issued by the Met' Office wasn't upgraded to an amber, even if it was late in the night.

[sunnijim]

They were on this thread at this time yesterday!!!!

I was refering to public funded organisations such as the M.O and BBC. Amateur forecasters seem to be 2.0 up this week.

[AndyLincs]

Looks like it's 'Fallen Tree' bingo on the Travel reports for many areas. Incidents coming up all the time. Norfolk in particular looks badly hit.

Edited January 5, 2012 by AndyLincs

[Coast]

Amateur forecasters seem to be 2.0 up this week.

[Lauren]

Very windy and rainy last night, didn't really let up at all. It is now calm and sunny and you can see the storm in the distance. Absolutely stunning clouds on the drive in (can't see them to take a picture from my work ). In the summer I am certain those clouds would have brought thunderstorms of epic proportions.

FAO Weather Ship: A friendly word of advice. You may find you get on a bit better if you stop making little digs and snidey remarks the whole time. You may not realise you're doing it so I'm just saying.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Lauren

[martinj2]

Gott in Himmel-crazy howling wind here and squalls coming off Irish Sea, just had a massive gust-not sure of speed but big tree in garden bent 20 degrees!

[kev238]

Last night was an unbelievably windy night. I live on the top floor of an apartment block in centric Nottingham. The wind was roaring the whole night.

I think the warnings last night were shambles; it appears widespread gusts were over seventy miles an hour, higher in some areas that did not even have an amber alert.

Do the met office not have people who can react to these kinds of things in real time?

The red warning is Scotland was issued after the worst winds had hit scotland, ESP the Glasgow area, and then hours of severe and worst gusts, were recorded, yet nothing changed to their forecasts online or on tv.

You only have to look at the BBC travel website to see how widespread the fallen trees are this morning, over turned lorries, fallen cables etc

[Jimmyh]

i have to admit the level of wind force was truly immense

[Aaron]

Definitely sleet in these showers

[snow raven]

Have squall going through Greenhithe N/W kent, about 20 mins worth so far

Just lost a fence panel

I was standing waiting for my train when that squall passed through - boy, did it chuck it down - even with an umbrella up (well, when it wasn't blown inside out!) I ended up drenched!

Also, a work colleague who travels in from East London mentioned she heard thunder when the sqaull passed through - didn't spot any lightning though.

[dallas]

Got going again, mad stuff

[Robbie Garrett]

Area's in South London had winds of 31-33mph Gust 59mph in the early hours, currently gusting to 51mph. Central london reached 47.1819574mph gusts. Heathrow hit 50mph gusts.

I believe though that you can add few knots/mph onto these in between each metar, as I said last night the actual gusts during the timeframe can sometime be higher than what the metar indicates.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Terminal Moraine]

Just had a look back through my records and the only days in the last 35 years with higher gusts than last night were as follows;

Jan' 25th 1990; 96 mph

Jan' 23rd 1993; 93 mph

Jan' 18th 2007; 92 mph

Jan' 20th 2005; 90 mph

[Lancashire Lass]

Still very windy here. Never known such prolonged winds.

[Coast]

Everything cleared back to sunshine and almost cloud fee skies here in Sussex now. Wind seems to have dropped considerably.

Seems to be a week of relative quiet now, but I've just read in MOD about something wintry possible in 10 days+ time......

[The PIT]

The mean wind speed reached 57 mph here around 0300 with a gust of 89 mph at 0258, one of the top ten gusts I've recorded in the last 35 years. Reports of several local roads being closed due to fallen trees.

I'm surprised the weather warning issued by the Met' Office wasn't upgraded to an amber, even if it was late in the night.

They go home at night so I was told by the Met.

Winds still increasing here max gust now 56mph. Nothing like your speeds though.

[Lancashire Lass]

Reposting Liam's post from last night.

I'll make it easy for you, below is a link to contact the Meto, if you have any further complaints about the current warnings or lack of them please click the link and either call them or send them an e mail! Alternatively contact them via Facebook or twitter.

http://www.metoffice...bout-us/contact

To reiterate, if you are not happy with the service they are providing then please do complain. Without feedback how can they improve their service?

I'm not a huge fan of their new warnings system myself as I do think it is quiet confusing and I have emailed them and told them that.

For sure it was very windy last night which took a lot of us by surprise and I'm not disagreeing with some of the sentiments expressed here but I think it's very clear what the overall opinion is so maybe we can move on now?

[Rustynailer]

I wonder if this prolonged wind is a "Daniel Defoe" type storm? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1703

[cyclonic happiness]

That is a very serious comment. And and should be backed up with detaied evidence. Otherwise I should think you or NW will be taken to court. And quite rightly. It happened once in the states and thisis completely out of order.

If this is what the NW forum is all about I'm definately on my travels.

I think now the night's over and we can all sit back and survey the damage that my comments were not out of proportion.

Right if you'll excuse me I have to go out now on my bike (yes have to!) at least the met office still says there's no need to worry or take precautions!#

I'll take my camera with me to hopefully capture the damage in the area with no warnings, should that be sufficient?

[johnholmes]

Reposting Liam's post from last night.

To reiterate, if you are not happy with the service they are providing then please do complain. Without feedback how can they improve their service?

I'm not a huge fan of their new warnings system myself as I do think it is quiet confusing and I have emailed them and told them that.

For sure it was very windy last night which took a lot of us by surprise and I'm not disagreeing with some of the sentiments expressed here but I think it's very clear what the overall opinion is so maybe we can move on now?

I could not agree more and that as an ex senior forecaster with them. Unless folk write with their view, evidence as well would help then you cannot expect any change in the rules for issuing warnings. I have already advised one person to repost his post into Net Wx to the Met O.

Do something don't just moan in here its not the fault of Net Wx-

hope this can stay in here admin/mods

They go home at night so I was told by the Met.

incorrect Pit, see my later post in a general reply as to what to do rather than making comments on here

Just had a look back through my records and the only days in the last 35 years with higher gusts than last night were as follows;

Jan' 25th 1990; 96 mph

Jan' 23rd 1993; 93 mph

Jan' 18th 2007; 92 mph

Jan' 20th 2005; 90 mph

again TM with the first class data set you have please write to the Met O showing them how bad it was last night with no warnings out. A data set like your cannot be dimsissed as they might a random comment about why no warnings from someone with no data to back it up.

I really do believe that there is some kind of 'black spot' if you like in the current system, they need to be made aware with actual data of what has happened.

[cyclonic happiness]

I could not agree more and that as an ex senior forecaster with them. Unless folk write with their view, evidence as well would help then you cannot expect any change in the rules for issuing warnings. I have already advised one person to repost his post into Net Wx to the Met O.

Do something don't just moan in here its not the fault of Net Wx-

hope this can stay in here admin/mods

incorrect Pit, see my later post in a general reply as to what to do rather than making comments on here

again TM with the first class data set you have please write to the Met O showing them how bad it was last night with no warnings out. A data set like your cannot be dimsissed as they might a random comment about why no warnings from someone with no data to back it up.

I really do believe that there is some kind of 'black spot' if you like in the current system, they need to be made aware with actual data of what has happened.

The last time we had gales across the Midlands I e-mailed the Meto and they replied saying the the conditions didn't merit a weather warning, so I didn't bother again.

That was when we had that surprise snowfall last year that people here spotted developing a few hours in advance but the meto didn't until we'd ahd 3-4" settled on the road, then the warnings came out.

The thing I don't understand is how they had warnings up a few days ago for the whole of the areas affected and yet 70% disappeared nearer the time?

I know that they cannot be specific a few days out, but surely it would be better to leave the warnings in place in such an unsure situation.

The Meto at the minute seem to be doing the opposite as if they'd rather be seen as not 'over doing' the warnings.

It's getting to the point that if there is dangerous weather coming, it's far 'safer' for me to tell friends and family to follow Netweather than the Met Office and that seriously should NOT be the case!

Crying wolf is never too much when there are wolves about!

[johnholmes]

I can't do more CH than I've already suggested. Those feeling aggrieved, especially if you have your own weather station, or have photographs showing damage in your area, send them to the Met Office. Do it in a pleasant way, not confrontational, if enough write with evidence they will have to react.

[tinybill]

loads of damage here in suffolk wild night last night trees down still got winds blowing at 70 mph at felixstowe docks at the moment

[Snowman15]

Winds really picking up now here in East Dorset with some quite violent gusts, but blue skies aswell, the perfect combination. The MetO had it correct for us with forecasting the strongest winds to be around midday today.

Currently gusting 60mph

Edited January 5, 2012 by Snowman15