South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[Slippery When White]

Are we confident about south coast snow forecast?

I would be quite surprised if we saw snow here in Weymouth but being further east and not exposed to the sea air on all sides you may stand a better chance in Pompey. I think the hills of the south will get some but coastal areas sleet or rain. It will be interesting to see if the forecasts later become any more favourable.

[PompeyFC]

I don't doubt conditions will be right - I think we will hold onto the -5 uppers and I also think the surface temp and dewpoints will be favourable even on the coast for Hampshire and East - particularly if the front is modelled to be further west as we get nearer Saturday. Remember deep cold air is very dense and hard to move so the warm air will rise over the top - should be interesting

[SLEETY]

trouble is the wind is switching to the sw on saturday ,so even though the surface is still cold for those of us on the coast rain will be likely.Blast it

[Joneseye]

Well thats a massive dissapointment for down here looking at the updated bbc forecast today on their website.Seems like most of the snow will be in the midlands,looked more like rain for a lot of us here.

ignore the BBC online forecast and stick with Netweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Just a question, why is everyone writing off things for their areas before the main event and possibly others have even arrived.

Common sense comes into these things and it is most probable that coastal areas are least likely have a full on snow event. However, I seem to recall in recent years, Newbury barely had 4 inches of level snow when coastal parts had much more.

Please wait until the event is knocking on our door and we can all be thankful for what arrives.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Becoming More Irritating]

agreed I believe we can expect significant snowfall down on the coast this weekend

[sclarke]

Just a question, why is everyone writing off things for their areas before the main event and possibly others have even arrived.

Common sense comes into these things and it is most probable that coastal areas are least likely have a full on snow event. However, I seem to recall in recent years, Newbury barely had 4 inches of level snow when coastal parts had much more.

Please wait until the event is knocking on our door and we can all be thankful for what arrives.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

I do agree with you. Even last year in December the Southampton area was said to have a rain event more than snow, but it actually turned into huge accumulations for us - probably the most I've seen in this area.

This is very much a now casting event. Don't take anything from people posting potential accumulations, and which areas will see rain etc. As we know from previous winters...it can snow where you least expect it!

Also on another note - we were forecast light drizzle on Monday morning as they said the little band of snow would fizzle out as it got to the coast. We had around 1 hour of continuous snowfall (didn't accumulate as the ground was wet) So that goes to say...keep an eye on it on the lead up, it could be favorable for everyone in this region.

[PompeyFC]

trouble is the wind is switching to the sw on saturday ,so even though the surface is still cold for those of us on the coast rain will be likely.Blast it

Just looking at GFS at the moment its south to south east for saturday - and bear in mind these events normally get put back west by a touch closer to the event

[sclarke]

Just looking at GFS at the moment its south to south east for saturday - and bear in mind these events normally get put back west by a touch closer to the event

Yep...I think we're in a great position actually, current models show us on the edge of it...but these will most likely push back a little westwards so we'd end up in the centre of it.

Can't really say until we get closer though.

[snow drift]

Yep...I think we're in a great position actually, current models show us on the edge of it...but these will most likely push back a little westwards so we'd end up in the centre of it.

Can't really say until we get closer though.

Hope your right and no one knows. My punt is that near the coast it will be rain due to the sea but I dont think you will need to go far in land to see some snow. Hope I am wrong and the sea adds to the showers and the intensity. At least its due to arrive over night, which will help.

[Slippery When White]

Just a question, why is everyone writing off things for their areas before the main event and possibly others have even arrived.

Common sense comes into these things and it is most probable that coastal areas are least likely have a full on snow event. However, I seem to recall in recent years, Newbury barely had 4 inches of level snow when coastal parts had much more.

Please wait until the event is knocking on our door and we can all be thankful for what arrives.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Hi there Gotto,

I am using historical knowledge of my local area and the latest model runs to try and make a reasoned guess at what I think will happen IMBY. It is very much marginal and Weymouth reguarly receives rain when the rest of Dorset gets snow. I am not doubting other coastal areas will get snow. Weymouth is a bit unique as it is a narrow bit of land that sticks out and has sea air on both sides - this makes a big difference in this sort of forecast.

I do think things may shift a little more west as the cold air may well be a bit harder to shift than the models show. I am also encouraged by the low dew points which seem to hang around after the -5 uppers move away Saturday morning (latest run). At the moment I think it is very close but not quite.....a couple of small upgrades in the coming runs would be nice.

I hope this shows I wasn't being negative on here or writing things off for my area but just being realistic with what I currently have to consider.

Heres to a few upgrades!

cheers

Hoops :-)

Edited February 2, 2012 by hoops

[Nick L]

We are in a great position simply because we can afford the inevitable westward adjustments. I honestly think we could be seeing a serious snow event on Saturday night. I'm starting to reconsider my travel plans. The M40 will be an absolute nightmare.

Once this comes into the range of the hi-res models (tonight/tomorrow morning) I'll start sticking my neck out with some forecasts!

Edited February 2, 2012 by Nick L

[snow drift]

We are in a great position simply because we can afford the inevitable westward adjustments. I honestly think we could be seeing a serious snow event on Saturday night. I'm starting to reconsider my travel plans. The M40 will be an absolute nightmare.

Once this comes into the range of the hi-res models (tonight/tomorrow morning) I'll start sticking my neck out with some forecasts!

Yes you are in a good spot. Furhter south and wind direction may be the issue.

[steve1971]

A good cance for it on sat night,gona wait till atleast 24-8 hours before we can no for shure hope the temps dont rise to much ahead of the front.still got to days of verry cold frosty weather to come.

[Nick L]

I just have a nagging concern that it won't be cold enough, especially for the western half of our region.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, finally this thread is getting busy.

The GFS 6z up to t+102 shows the deepest cold air being unable to clear the SOUTHEAST, that must be a good sign. The potential for February is still truly awesome and let's hope the MetO issue their forecasts and Fax Charts in our favour.

Game on.

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

I honestly think we could be seeing a serious snow event on Saturday night.

I agree fully Nick and I expect the MetO to issue plenty of advise very soon.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Becoming More Irritating]

I am certain it will be cold enough and there will be plenty of precipitaion too! time to get the sled out me thinks?

[Coast]

The GFS 6z up to t+102 shows the depest cold air being unable to clear the SOUTHEAST, that must be a good sign.

Oh yes!!!!! Just look at what GFS has flooding in on Friday to Sunday:

That lots starts off somewhere in Greenland!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi there Gotto,

I am using historical knowledge of my local area and the latest model runs to try and make a reasoned guess at what I think will happen IMBY. It is very much marginal and Weymouth reguarly receives rain when the rest of Dorset gets snow. I am not doubting other coastal areas will get snow. Weymouth is a bit unique as it is a narrow bit of land that sticks out and has sea air on both sides - this makes a big difference in this sort of forecast.

cheers

Hoops :-)

Hi Hoops.

Yes I know Weymouth relatively well and it does have its own microclimate as do a lot of these south coast locations. Knowing your local patch is also very valuable and this is precisely where brave predictions for specific locations in the MOD thread can go awry.

No point in guessing whom will miss and whom will get serious snow at this stage.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[PompeyFC]

doesn't look as good for us on the 06z - we have uppers down to -3 overnight saturday into Sunday as there looks to have been a shift eastwards

Hopefully the 12z which has more data will shunt it back

[gottolovethisweather]

doesn't look as good for us on the 06z - we have uppers down to -3 overnight saturday into Sunday as there looks to have been a shift eastwards

Hopefully the 12z which has more data will shunt it back

One question though and I haven't looked yet, but does that correlate with the passing of the front, or even stalling of the front?

This of course, would be a CRUCIAL factor and furthermore the more SNOW forms and settles, the above would most likely become irrelevant.

Guys n gals, please don't look for specifics as this will be misleading for others.

Thanks

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[SLEETY]

The 06z has the worst verification stats of any of the models.

[snowysouth]

Hi there Gotto,

I am using historical knowledge of my local area and the latest model runs to try and make a reasoned guess at what I think will happen IMBY. It is very much marginal and Weymouth reguarly receives rain when the rest of Dorset gets snow. I am not doubting other coastal areas will get snow. Weymouth is a bit unique as it is a narrow bit of land that sticks out and has sea air on both sides - this makes a big difference in this sort of forecast.

I do think things may shift a little more west as the cold air may well be a bit harder to shift than the models show. I am also encouraged by the low dew points which seem to hang around after the -5 uppers move away Saturday morning (latest run). At the moment I think it is very close but not quite.....a couple of small upgrades in the coming runs would be nice.

I hope this shows I wasn't being negative on here or writing things off for my area but just being realistic with what I currently have to consider.

Heres to a few upgrades!

cheers

Hoops :-)

It's hard having been on the side of missing out at the last minute so many times. Weymouth is a lot like Poole, your area sticks out further in the channel, we are sheltered by the Purbecks and the IOW. So many things point to a marginal event for us this little further West, BUT other factors put us smack bang in the firing line. It could go either way.

I am trying to stay positive, but trying to be realistic also. How many times have potential snow-fests turned into a fizzled out dry spell country wide? Who knows what will happen! I will be prepared should it Snow, and not TOO disappointed if it doesn't. Last season, we missed out on one lot of Snow but literally 3 or 4 miles. I walked and witnessed the Snow line, it was weird to say the least!!

It won't stop me radar watching and hoping for miracles, no matter what is forecast though. It's certainly been interesting watching the models.

[Nick L]

To the present though and what a beautiful day it is yet again! If I can't have snow then this will do very nicely indeed. Going to have a nice walk to uni wrapped up warm...although I hope I don't get chased by a goose again like yesterday...