Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Lampostwatcher]

Latest nae take with a pinch of salt imo

[kold weather]

Didn't think much of the NAE myself -- a little too inaccurate for my liking over the years.

But over these last couple of model runs, I'm starting to have more faith in its output....

Only because its putting you in the firing line

In all seriousness its a good sign that the GFS is moving westwards, though its a big worry that the model is so far off in the first 6hrs of the run!

[PubliusEnigma]

Im surprised this isn't getting more attention. Not only does the NAE have no precipitation across NE Scotland but the 10pm radar even has this band beginning to push into the N Sea. If the models have the precip in the wrong place at +0hrs then you really can't have any faith in the projected precip charts. Come tomorrow the snow area may well be as the models indicate but at this moment in time I wouldn't be confident.

Going to be interesting comparing the radar at mignight with the models!

Dave, I think what maybe confusing you and even the models is there are two active systems, an occlusion/cold front moving generality slowly SE but being dragged aloft in a north easterly direction, and a wave forming across north west central england which will amble almost due south before the more easterly flow nearer the english channel causes it to drift in more of a SW direction once it reaches close to the south coast.

The attached guide in my professional opinion offers a realistic scenario. Orange being most likely snow, pink - freezing rain, blue - cold rain, and yellow sleet or wet snow.

[Herefordweather]

I'm thinking there will be a middle ground to this. Worcester - Leicester, with either side seeing a covering.

[Weather Wizard]

Im surprised this isn't getting more attention. Not only does the NAE have no precipitation across NE Scotland but the 10pm radar even has this band beginning to push into the N Sea. If the models have the precip in the wrong place at +0hrs then you really can't have any faith in the projected precip charts. Come tomorrow the snow area may well be as the models indicate but at this moment in time I wouldn't be confident.

Going to be interesting comparing the radar at mignight with the models!

Hi,

Surely if the NAE has underestimated the eastern extent to the precip then shouldn't areas further east tommorow get something

Thanks

[A.J]

Im surprised this isn't getting more attention. Not only does the NAE have no precipitation across NE Scotland but the 10pm radar even has this band beginning to push into the N Sea. If the models have the precip in the wrong place at +0hrs then you really can't have any faith in the projected precip charts. Come tomorrow the snow area may well be as the models indicate but at this moment in time I wouldn't be confident.

Going to be interesting comparing the radar at mignight with the models!

it depends on what NAE overlay you're using IMHO...

using the estimated 6 hourly PPN accumulation overlay then it looks way out as you said, but If you look at the NAE 18z T6 PPN type overlay and compare to the actual live radar then in fact the PPN spread is accurate, it's just the intensity if the PPN that's inaccurate...odd!

[Tim Bland]

Mainly dry across NE Scotland. The reality will be the rain has already cleared into the N Sea. :lol:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12020900_0818.gif

NAE has the front too far NW. Very odd to have this occur at +3.

Does this mean the precip tommorow could be further SE or am I clutching at straws? GFS looks like a stinker, I mean sinker

[TEITS]

It was pretty accurate for the snow event on Sat/Sun though TEITS - didn't really waver much in the 36 hours up to its arrival

Doesn't mean a thing if its wrong now.

Just imagine if at this moment in time were all now living in NE Scotland and the rain was falling as snow. We would all be posting how wrong the NAE was.

[Bristawl Si]

Doesn't mean a thing if its wrong now.

Just imagine if at this moment in time were all now living in NE Scotland and the rain was falling as snow. We would all be posting how wrong the NAE was.

So tonight it's off colour - tomorrow it'll be back on track.

[weatherobsuk]

Amber warning now in effect for Cumbria/Southern Scotland for the risk of Freezing Ice tomorrow. The M6 and West Coast line look to be the main transport impacts of this event, however the MetO may yet further extend the warning southwards by the morning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Zakos]

No, TEITS is right to criticize. The PPN is forecast by all models to move over the north sea and then back westwards across England, stalling somewhere in the Midlands.

But if a High res model cant get it right at 6 hours out, what hope is there for it being right at 30 hours out? And what about all the PPN over eastern Scotland right now on the radar? surely that would increase the eastward extent of the snow area currently forecast at 30 hours?

Edited February 8, 2012 by Zakos

[georgiedre]

Why is the precipitation moving ne through ireland and somewhat sw erly through scotland/n,england? Weird

[Brum Watcher]

Mainly dry across NE Scotland. The reality will be the rain has already cleared into the N Sea. :lol:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12020900_0818.gif

NAE has the front too far NW. Very odd to have this occur at +3.

Well at least looking at it the BBC/METO are not using that NAE model for showing tommorrows chart....

[NorthantsSnow]

Latest nae take with a pinch of salt imo

Except it now has support from the NMM.

Worth noting as well that the NMM intensifies the rain/sleet/snow significantly through the West Midlands, South Wales, Central Southern England and SW England on Friday morning. There could be some very big falls locally going by this output.

Edited February 8, 2012 by NorthantsSnow

[TEITS]

Dave, I think what maybe confusing you and even the models is there are two active systems, an occlusion/cold front moving generality slowly SE but being dragged aloft in a north easterly direction, and a wave forming across north west central england which will amble almost due south before the more easterly flow nearer the english channel causes it to drift in more of a SW direction once it reaches close to the south coast.

The attached guide in my professional opinion offers a realistic scenario. Orange being most likely snow, pink - freezing rain, blue - cold rain, and yellow sleet or wet snow.

Im not confusing anything. Fact is the NAE is predicting a dry evening across NE Scotland and it isn't. Just wait until midnight and the difference between the radar and the models will be even more noticeable.

So tonight it's off colour - tomorrow it'll be back on track.

Just posting what I see. Go and check the radar and compare with the NAE/GFS. Nobody can argue that the 18Z NAE is way off. Basically the NAE has the front too far NW. You can see this with your own eyes.

Edited February 8, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[snowking]

18z NMM largely similar in the spread of the PPN to its 12z run, but there are some HUGE precip totals showing around the west midlands/westcountry/e wales - 20-24mm against the eastern slopes at the site of the pivot (Malverns, Brecons and Cotswolds look to be the current hotspots)

Elsewhere, 10-15mm across midlands and other central areas, 2-5mm London and a majority of EA...less to the south of the M4 in the east

SK

[Brum Watcher]

Except it now has support from the NMM.

Worth noting as well that the NMM intensifies the rain/sleet/snow significantly through the West Midlands, South Wales, Central Southern England and SW England on Friday morning. There could be some very big falls locally going by this output.

Is it possible for you to put both of them on here for comparison?

or anyone else?

[kold weather]

NMM does get the precip further west BUT keeps the snowline further east and has a larger area of precip as well, so places from say London northwards get a solid 5cms, Central Midlands and CS England get around 10cms, West Midlands and SW start as rain but does increasingly turn to snow as the night goes on.

I'm not buying the rain idea, I think it'll probably be snow now based on what I'm seeing on the other models...

[Bristawl Si]

18z NMM largely similar in the spread of the PPN to its 12z run, but there are some HUGE precip totals showing around the west midlands/westcountry/e wales - 20-24mm against the eastern slopes at the site of the pivot (Malverns, Brecons and Cotswolds look to be the current hotspots)

Elsewhere, 10-15mm across midlands and other central areas, 2-5mm London and a majority of EA...less to the south of the M4 in the east

SK

OH NO!!!

You're the first this eve to mention the dreaded "south of the M4"!!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Bristle boy

[Lampostwatcher]

It's a radar watcher ! And then a lampost watcher for sure the track will change but looks to me like it will flirt with London

[MKN]

Could someone show nmm by any chance as some seriously confusing comments regarding it, some saying rain in west. some saying no precip in east mids with all heavy stuff further west etc? n

[Bristawl Si]

Im not confusing anything. Fact is the NAE is predicting a dry evening across NE Scotland and it isn't. Just wait until midnight and the difference between the radar and the models will be even more noticeable.

Just posting what I see. Go and check the radar and compare with the NAE/GFS. Nobody can argue that the 18Z NAE is way off. Basically the NAE has the front too far NW. You can see this with your own eyes.

Only time will tell re tom/fri morn's event

[Stoxs]

Except it now has support from the NMM.

Worth noting as well that the NMM intensifies the rain/sleet/snow significantly through the West Midlands, South Wales, Central Southern England and SW England on Friday morning. There could be some very big falls locally going by this output.

this was mentioned in an earlyer post

Its due to a flow from the east coliding with the band of PPn. I think, can`t remember what was said now and can`t find where

[snowking]

OH NO!!!

You're the first this eve to mention the dreaded "south of the M4"!!

Relax my friend - thats more applicable further east.

Across the west country 6mm shown on the south coast towards dorset/somerset, up to 14mm for the bristol area, then up to 17 across glos

SK

[nick sussex]

I think this snow event is more unpredictable than the one over the last weekend.

The latter had a front trying to displace the colder air, here as this front edges east its being met by some colder uppers moving west from the continent, I think snow amounts forecast could be much more prone to error.