Southwest And Central Southern England - Regional Discussion

[Nights King]

Just plain old dull, cloudy but dry here.

ppn is currently just to south of bristol going through somerset, just clipping me but not heavy at moment but certainly a grim day

9.9c

[Costa Del Fal]

An exceptionally grim day here. Fog and drizzle for much of the day. Mild but not as warm as yesterday. Fog has reduced to mist now though as the wind picks up a bit.

Today has probably been one the of the grimmest October days ive ever seen!

[Gibby]

Less gloomy this morning with cloud base above the hilltops and a slow brightening of the sky. With a bit of luck we may have a dry day today.. Currently 10C.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/page8.htm

[AWD]

Spot the difference again today, although it is a tad brighter than previous days.

[AWD]

I notice we have another Meto warning for heavy rainfall out for tomorrow. Seems like endless warnings being issued for the same areas this year.

Looking at the model output, the probability of there being more is highly likely too.

[khodds]

I notice we have another Meto warning for heavy rainfall out for tomorrow. Seems like endless warnings being issued for the same areas this year.

Looking at the model output, the probability of there being more is highly likely too.

This is getting quite depressing now. I cant wait for the transition into colder / frosty conditions. Just hope it hurries up!

[Andy Bown]

The lunchtime BBC forecast seemed to show some very heavy rain between midnight-06.00 over much of the region with it clearing most of Somerset/Bristol during the rush hour but lingering all morning over Wiltshire/Dorset.

[fergieweather]

The lunchtime BBC forecast seemed to show some very heavy rain between midnight-06.00 over much of the region with it clearing most of Somerset/Bristol during the rush hour but lingering all morning over Wiltshire/Dorset.

Detail on the PPN varies run-to-run (unsurprising given complexities) but latest UK4 and NAE output suggests fairly broad corridor of 15-25mm, isolated 40-50mm, E Devon across to E-Central Somerset & Dorset up via Wilts northwards. Initial convective feature running now towards Cornwall will inherit more front-like characteristics as it swings NE tonight (to Bristol area circa 0100hrs). Clearance from some parts of W Country tomorrow will prove fragmentary and certainly not homogenous; latest modified UKMO runs keep fairly heavy pulses Bristol up into Glos even by late afternoon.

Ian.

[AWD]

Any thoughts on week or so ahead Ian?

Looking at it all briefly, flooding could become a problem again as I see frequent falls of rain falling onto already saturated ground with low pressure systems tracking along the channel.

Certainly can't see any respite in the rains.

[fergieweather]

Any thoughts on week or so ahead Ian?

Looking at it all briefly, flooding could become a problem again as I see frequent falls of rain falling onto already saturated ground with low pressure systems tracking along the channel.

Certainly can't see any respite in the rains.

Just off phone to UKMO - new (18z) NAE paints same story tomorrow with areas of 40+mm for West Country. Rush hour looks a mess.

Sunday... a pain. New UKMO-GM brings back the spectre of the deep low into Sat night-Sunday for S England (after all models ditched it earlier today). You couldn't make it up. Here we go again....

Gotta dash - on air in 30ish mins; ciao for now

[Andy Bown]

Thanks for your info Ian and the tv forecasts.

Rather an unexpectedly low amount of rain this morning with drizzle in Warminster and a heavy pulse edging up from the SSW to catch here and affect

East of Salisbury Plain towards Hampshire then probably Berkshire. A large dry slot over much of Somerset and East Devon with then torrential rain over the far SW.

Overnight there has been around half an inch of rain in the far SW but very little elsewhere. It seems the initial area of rain went more N than forecast yesterday evening.

[fromey]

i thought the same Andy, recorded very little rain over night, its just got a little heavier now but not by a lot.

fromey

whats with the Warning points under my Picture??

Edited October 11, 2012 by fromey

[Mapantz]

10mm in last hour here, 18.4mm in last two hours! Flooding all over the roads, and the fire brigade just had a shout, so something has happened. :o

[Gibby]

Rather surprised not to see very wet conditions here under deluges of rain after last night forecasts. Instead a very light shower apart it's dry, very misty and merky with a fresh and mild SE wind. 12C. Think we struck it lucky here so far.

http://www.norton-ra...co.uk/page8.htm

Edited October 11, 2012 by Gibby

[Nights King]

Rather surprised not to see very wet conditions here under deluges of rain after last night forecasts. Instead a very light shower apart it's dry, very misty and merky with a fresh and mild SE wind. 12C. Think we struck it lucky here so far.

http://www.norton-ra...co.uk/page8.htm

I was also rather shocked this morning expecting heavy rain and flooding only to find drizzle and and foggy dampness again this morning. Aso dry all the way into bristol too with dry patches of concrete here at work.

i thought the same Andy, recorded very little rain over night, its just got a little heavier now but not by a lot.

fromey

whats with the Warning points under my Picture??

I think it must be a new feature of netweather but I couldn't find any information on this?

[Bristawl Si]

So what went wrong with the forecast? As late as 10.30 last night the forecast was for rain all thru the early hours and dreadful rush hour. Minimal here.

Poor show - so how people put faith in models predicting a week or two in advance is beyond me. And as for months ahead!

[Nights King]

So what went wrong with the forecast? As late as 10.30 last night the forecast was for rain all thru the early hours and dreadful rush hour. Minimal here.

Poor show - so how people put faith in models predicting a week or two in advance is beyond me. And as for months ahead!

I think we just got a little lucky through central strip of west country... the picture is of the last 12 hours rough accumulation totals for west country and it is quite clear not all areas have missed it...

Then if you look below this is where the rain is currently situated and roughly heading..

Edited October 11, 2012 by mullender83

[AWD]

Yes, looks like the worst of the rain is hitting Dorset, with flooding issues down there again now. Bristol & Wiltshire look to have got away with this one, which to be honest is probably good news given the state of the ground currently.

Just another cool cloudy & dull day here again, been like this pretty much all week. So boring and tedious.

[Mark Neal.]

Dry here in Central Southern England... Well in Oxford anyway expecting some rainfall later..

[legritter]

Yes almost dry here on west mendip ,looks like main pulse of activity was further west than forecast .and this is currently heading north and developing .but some interesting developments over devon south somerset .Truckers are currently reporting some hvy rain on M5 towards exeter ,and some bad conditions down near plymouth ,so it could be a day of local activity .im not expecting much here untill after mid day .some mild air out there at present ,so still to play for . and plenty of good looking charts over the coming 10 days or so ,to keep us happy ,regards all ,Legritter .

[Mapantz]

The heavens have opened again here,

[legritter]

Gone very close ,dark sky now to south and s/west .showers developing nicely over devon ,the sun actually popped out for 3 min a while ago . could be some action around within say the hour .looking rather grim for places across the north and n/east .

[AWD]

Some heavier pulses of rain moving north across the West Country now.

[legritter]

Just had 40 min of steady moderate rain with a few hvy bursts mixed in .sun keeps popping out which is probably helping .but now looks like a dryer slot pushing north .I cant finish me gardening so im going to pop a chicken in the oven ,and do some roast potatoes for my wife ,but only veg for me as still on diet .rain now stoped oh blast .

[AWD]

Rain suddenly turned a lot heavier here now. Looks like the 4th successive day without a glimpse of sun.