East Midlands Regional Discussion

[Macey]

If these models verify, we could all be in for a pasting...

And on top of that, the temps overnight Saturday would be stupidly cold!

[Racing Green]

Haven't got time to read through the thread too far, but whats the forecast as it stands for Nottingham in the coming days?

[Macey]

Haven't got time to read through the thread too far, but whats the forecast as it stands for Nottingham in the coming days?

Cold

Looks like we'll be getting some snow Friday night/Saturday morning. Though this still isn't 100% as it's 48 hours away. If this does happen though, we should be getting a fair amount.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Macey

[Racing Green]

Any idea on the scale of snow event?

[mayflower232]

BBC are talking of 6 inches worth falling in the Midlands over fri/sat.

[kev238]

Probably earlier for snow in Nottingham according to current modelling

Around lunchtime for Nottingham, perhaps earlier. The nae had it reaching here by the end of it's 6z run, meaning it was close by 6am.

The gfs a little slower.

[BLOWERS]

Very light snow flurry in Chilwell now - 11.15am.

[MKN]

BBC are talking of 6 inches worth falling in the Midlands over fri/sat.

Which could be topped up by same again Sunday into monday

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I think we need to start to plan contingencies for a potentially sustained and very severe spell of wintry weather, of which Friday could just be the start.

NWP is presenting a number of potential snow events next week, which could well provide substantive accumulations.

The longwave trough migrating eastwards off the eastern coast of North America is consistently being modelled by ensemble means as cutting through a developing mid Atlantic ridge mid to late next week. That provides an eddy in the flow which is likely to enhance the easterly flow off an already frigid land mass to our east and north-east.

Thereafter, the ridge could retrogress towards the NE Atlantic and Greenland bring in another surge of Arctic air from the NE. That would give us a sustained period (with snowcover for much of the UK) of below normal temperatures.

I've grabbed the 06z GEFS at day 13 which depicts the synoptic pattern with a trough firmly ensconsed over Europe and high pressure to the north.

For anyone that hasn't been in the models thread recently, thought this would make you smile! It made my day to be honest. Cannot believe I might actually get to witness a potential 'classic' winter! Hope it all verifies and everyone sees a good dumping of snow... :-)

[kmanmx]

MetO Amber Warnings for West and Eastmidlands for Friday. Talks of 15cm, 25cm over higher ground.

It's barely including east midlands though, the the amber alert only extends east to between Birmingham and Derby/Leics/Coventry, unfortunately.

[Polar Low]

As we move into a reliable timeframe now, it's safe to say Thursday night into Sunday is going to be a fun one!

Quick mention for the current temperature too, just above -5C at 1pm... pretty impressive stuff!!

[Ryan05]

MetO Amber Warnings for West and Eastmidlands for Friday. Talks of 15cm, 25cm over higher ground.

It's barely including east midlands though, the the amber alert only extends east to between Birmingham and Derby/Leics/Coventry, unfortunately.

Every chance that will get modified

[SL7]

Met Office is only showing light snow for Leicester on Friday.

Are they being cautious as not to cause mass panic by forecasting lots of heavy snow or have models etc changed now and it's looking less likely since yesterday?

I'm posting this from my phone so can't really browse this or other threads properly at the minute.

Thanks

[kmanmx]

Met Office is only showing light snow for Leicester on Friday.

Are they being cautious as not to cause mass panic by forecasting lots of heavy snow or have models etc changed now and it's looking less likely since yesterday?

I'm posting this from my phone so can't really browse this or other threads properly at the minute.

Thanks

I wouldn't pay too much attention for that. The light snow/heavy snow symbols are rarely very accurate here. Besides, the light snow symbols last for about 30 hours anyway

Edited January 16, 2013 by kmanmx

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/em_forecast_warnings.html

Here's the link

[tooby]

Hi Polar Low, long time since I've posted. Hope you are well.

Have you got the light snow flurry we've just had in Balderton? My current temp is -2.3c and falling.

I'm off to work again now, but I'll be back on before the weekend.

Wrap up warm everyone!

[Cric_lancster]

Early days on where Friday/Saturday precip will get to yet, like many say 48 hours is practically FI. The Beeb seem quite bullish about a countrywide snow event, with the snow spreading extensively eastwards through Friday. A lot of cold water to go under the bridge before the location of that band reveals itself.

[MKN]

MetO Amber Warnings for West and Eastmidlands for Friday. Talks of 15cm, 25cm over higher ground.

It's barely including east midlands though, the the amber alert only extends east to between Birmingham and Derby/Leics/Coventry, unfortunately.

That's because the warnings only till 6 pm if it went till around 3am sat the orange area would be further east.

[Snowangel-MK]

Amber Alert of Snow for East Midlands :

Derbyshire

valid from 0400 Fri 18 Jan to 1800 Fri 18 Jan

Yellow Alert of Snow for East Midlands :

Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Derby, Lincolnshire, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, Leicester, Northamptonshire & Rutland

Valid from: 0400 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1800 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are likely, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10-15 cm of snow could well occur quite widely, with the risk of 25 cm or more over high ground.

Clearly there is the potential for some severe disruption, and the public are advised to watch for updates to this warning and to be prepared to alter travel plans.

Issued at: 1123 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=B6E6F732-EFED-CEEE-6891-4300E7116807_1_EM&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358251260

[kmanmx]

That's because the warnings only till 6 pm if it went till around 3am sat the orange area would be further east.

Well spotted. But maybe they are thinking precipitation intensity will ease off after this time as it heads into East Mids, therfor no need for a wider amber warning?

[weatherguy]

I think we finally have licence to ramp now (for the event on Friday), exact snow depths obviously are still tough to predict for specific areas, but we should all be happy

What follows is of most excitement to me though! The potential is there for a series of undercutting lows which just keep dumping more and more snow over the midlands, adding to the previously unmelted accumulations. This is more in FI though, for now at least

[SL7]

Any update on the possibility of temporary merge back with West Mids for the weekend or so?

I know I'm new but think it'd be cool if it turn out to be massive snow event for the discussion to be shared.

[kmanmx]

Any update on the possibility of temporary merge back with West Mids for the weekend or so?

I know I'm new but think it'd be cool if it turn out to be massive snow event for the discussion to be shared.

Problem is more often than not it comes off for West Mids and not east mids

[Polar Low]

Worth a mention that we've had very light snow / snizzle here for the past 45 minutes or so, a welcome bonus leading up to Friday.

[Ryan05]

Problem is more often than not it comes off for West Mids and not east mids

Too right, the last thing us in the East will want to hear on Friday is a snowfest in Telford if the snow doesn't make it across to here, i think the split was correct given the size of the region