East Midlands Regional Discussion

[andy_leics22]

Well, today has been good in terms of the snow lasting. The only places the snow has melted completely from is most of the roads and some pavements but on grass and sheltered areas the snow hasn't melted at all.

When I saw the models this morning I was excited about what they were showing for Friday. I thought it would downgrade by the 12z but amazingly it's actually upgraded! I refuse to go into full on ramp mode about Friday until Thursday. If the models are still showing a battle ground scenario like they are currently... I will be chuffed!

I wonder if we can get the Midlands thread as one again if that event for Friday remains on the cards? It will be much more exciting if they are merged again, the whole of the Midlands would be in for a good snow event IF what the GFS 12z is predicting actually happens.

[weatherguy]

I won't lie, my head almost exploded after seeing the latest runs (which actually are reasonably consistent over the last few days!) and I'm finding it nigh on impossible NOT to ramp about what we have coming...

Edit - also want to say that i don't really agree with the splitting of the midlands thread into 2 halves - not least because i'm bang in the middle!

Edited January 15, 2013 by weatherguy

[Polar Low]

Heading up to your part of the country tomorrow, Newark to be precise.

All looking o.k regarding weather ?

Is there much snow cover still around?

What starte are the roads in?

replies mucha ppreciated in anticipation

cheers Stoxs

All roads clear - lying snow remains with partial cover on pavements. Side roads will be pretty dicey tomorrow, ice posing more of an issue.

All in all, you shouldn't have many issues.

[Strider]

NAE has snow accumulation by Thurs, basically fast forwarding the battleground rushing the Atlantic back in...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/13011718_1518.gif

[shaky]

Has anyone seen the minimum temps the nae is predicting for the east midlans on thursday!!by 12pm the temperatures are at -7 degrees!!😳

[Stoxs]

NAE has snow accumulation by Thurs, basically fast forwarding the battleground rushing the Atlantic back in...

http://expert-images...011718_1518.gif

Thank you for the reply polar low.

in regards to above post NAE isnt pushing atlantic through it has picked up a weak front in front of the main band that is still out west on this chart.

if you dont like snow its a down grade!!

shouldnt be to much snow with thiis but will make it gloomy.

cheers stoxs

[Rich_T]

And this weekend, i may be camping - yes camping in a tent, whats the chance of snow in the peak district, an leek/stoke area?

[mackerel sky]

18z crap for this part of the East Midlands. Doesn't quite make it. Left in a dry spot, until the Atlantic blasts through on Sunday. That is my fear, we have been left in this situation before - the spoilers since the memorable February 2009. Shower activity killed off by approaching fronts, the fronts don't get close enough. Not that showers are even on the agenda. Better make the most of the dregs that are left on the grass until a blink and you miss it event on Sunday.

Haven't said that I'm not naive to take every single run as gospel. I've been model watching on this forum for over 9 years. But the in the last two years of model watching, nothing has materialised as progged, and neither has the winter given me a nice surprise.

I predict nothing and expect nothing for Friday. Just the cloud whilst everywhere west of Northampton gets a load of snow. Cynical? Yes. Like in December 2010 we will be the laughing stock of the whole of the UK, with our 1cm.

[NorthantsSnow]

Ensembles offer some hope. 18z operational is probably overly pessimistic for Northants as far as Friday's event goes, the mean and control show more precipitation here. On the negative side, it was an outlier for Monday. I'm just going to focus on the lovely yellow line even though its chances of coming off are incredibly tiny, as it shows me what I want to see...

http://cdn.nwstatic....amptonshire.png

Edited January 16, 2013 by NorthantsSnow

[Supacell]

GFS not that good for our region this morning with very little snow. Although at this range (albeit only 48hrs) the position of the snow band on Friday is still yet to be decided and after this is FI. The Met Office seem to think snow for our region from Friday onwards right through the weekend. As per usual, we can't just sit back and look forward to this, we have to live on the edge and wait to see what will happen. I suppose it makes it more exciting having this model divergence.

Had this been 20 years ago, before the internet etc, we would be excited now awaiting the snow and blizzards that are being forecasted by the BBC for Friday and the weekend (as its all the general populus had to go on). We would not be aware that one run of one model has backed off the snow for us.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

BBC Radio now calling a 'significant snow event' for England on Friday 10-15cm

[MKN]

GFS not that good for our region this morning with very little snow. Although at this range (albeit only 48hrs) the position of the snow band on Friday is still yet to be decided and after this is FI. The Met Office seem to think snow for our region from Friday onwards right through the weekend. As per usual, we can't just sit back and look forward to this, we have to live on the edge and wait to see what will happen. I suppose it makes it more exciting having this model divergence.

Had this been 20 years ago, before the internet etc, we would be excited now awaiting the snow and blizzards that are being forecasted by the BBC for Friday and the weekend (as its all the general populus had to go on). We would not be aware that one run of one model has backed off the snow for us.

The gfs has the snow about 50miles to far south west. The ukmo and gem have it covering the region entirely. Not seen ecm precip charts but based the pressure charts are similar to ukmo that probably places the precip roughly in the same place. Overall id say we should jus be alright however we might get the lighter stuff but better than nothing. The metoffice/bbc forcasts on the whole weren't far wrong Monday and neither was the nae so both are worth paying serious attention to this weekend.

Edited January 16, 2013 by SnowTornado

[kev238]

All the models bar the gfs bring the precipitation all the way through the midlands, leading to a significant snow event. The BBC is also concurring.

However, I will reserve judgement at the moment as these things can often stall in the way gfs showed!!

[Aaron]

The gfs has the snow about 50miles to far south west. The ukmo and gem have it covering the region entirely. Not seen ecm precip charts but based the pressure charts are similar to ukmo that probably places the precip roughly in the same place. Overall id say we should jus be alright however we might get the lighter stuff but better than nothing. The metoffice/bbc forcasts on the whole weren't far wrong Monday and neither was the nae so both are worth paying serious attention to this weekend.

As the above poster mentioned GFS is on its own, UKMO shows precip. racing through the UK including the East Midlands, and the Fax charts show the front crossing the entire country unhindered. Keep hope, things may be looking up (we're in the same situation as you up here in Yorks, so what helps you helps us).

Edited January 16, 2013 by Aaron

[shaky]

Nae falling into line with other models!!compare this one to the last one and you will see!not as progressive!!gud stuff!!

[andy_leics22]

Just had 10 mins of snizzle and its still going. Not sure where this has come from!

[Strider]

NAE still going for snow on Thurs

[shaky]

NAE still going for snow on Thurs

and friday aswell!!model consensus!!whoop whooop!!we could get a double whammy!!

[Ryan05]

Yes we have just had the snizzle, as for the weekend trust me we will get this snow because for once I don't actually want any because I have a ticket for the Direby V Forest match which I don't want to be called off

[andy_leics22]

Good news! The 06z gfs has fallen in line with other models this morning and is now pushing the whole of the snow band across the country rather than stalling to the south west.

[kmanmx]

Looking good for friday. In terms of whether it will be rain or snow, it's looking less marginal than Monday in those regards - which is nice.

48Hours away though. Practically FI

Edited January 16, 2013 by kmanmx

[kev238]

Yes ; 6x gfs is pretty perfect and allows us east midlanders a bit of margin for error as the snow reaches the east coast. Further, it really does mean we have cross model agreement on the passage of the front getting across to our region.

Assuming it does, and there is still time for it to stall so it is not a definite, then we look like getting a great fall of snow; 10 cm or so i will guess with much better conditions for accumulations on all surfaces.

[Rose]

I think this snizzle stuff some of us have had is maybe the freezing fog that's falling? I'm sure that's what my family said it was when I was growing up, sort of makes sense to me anyway (but what do I know.................)

[DerbyshireSnow]

Snowing in Ashbourne

[matty40s]

a lot of this snizzle and snow yesterday and today isn't showing up on the radars.

I'm flying out of East Midlands tommorow which shouldn't be a problem, however, flying back in on Saturday.......could be fun!!