East Midlands Regional Discussion

[SL7]

Hahaha well that would indeed be frustrating, reading everyone sharing there snow stories and pictures while we look out the window at rain or something

[Coast]

[Cric_lancster]

Just thought I'd post this in here - courtesy of snowwonder in the Winter Model Discussion thread, it's from Luton Airport, but still reckon it sums up the UK situation pretty well.

'UK - As forecast we have seen large accumulations of snow across far eastern parts of the UK over the last few days which mostly missed LTN & STN, but ice is now affecting many other areas of the country. The next 2 days look much drier and brighter but still very cold, giving us some respite from potentially disruptive wintry weather but a continued risk of severe frost and ice and plenty of de-icing activity. However, towards the end of the week it looks as though there will be a transition to more unsettled conditions spreading from the west. Over the last few days the UK has seen a battle between cold air to the east and north-east, and milder, moist air to the west. Cold air has certainly won the battle for the moment but milder air in the west is trying to push against it all the time. This is creating very difficult conditions to forecast. The current thoughts are that a band of rain will push in from the west on Friday, hit cold air and turn to snow that could produce significant accumulations for much of the UK. The main risk areas initially are Northern Ireland, Wales, northwest England, the West Midlands and southwest England but it is likely that these conditions will move east over the course of Friday and into the weekend. However, considerable uncertainty remains in exactly how the band of precipitation will then position itself, whether it continues northeast or stalls over western Britain. In the extreme west, snow is likely to turn back to rain but we could see large accumulations of snow in places. Amounts of snow are highly uncertain but there is currently a moderate risk of severe disruption to our operation. Over the weekend further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are expected to push in from the west but there is still considerable uncertainty as to how quickly this might happen and whether or not we will see slightly less cold conditions despite the above predictions.'

[Macey]

Current temp is -2.6*C in Pitsford. Today reached the dizzying heights of -2.2*C!

[Bolton67]

Current temp is -2.6*C in Pitsford. Today reached the dizzying heights of -2.2*C!

Just down the road from me. fog most of the day.

Edited January 16, 2013 by lancs_northants

[Macey]

Just down the road from me. fog most of the day.

Yup, a pretty miserable day today. Nice frost on the trees though.

[Polar Low]

We've had pretty persistant snizzle/light snow throughout the afternoon here in Newark, fantastic winters day combined with sub zero temperatures and some impressive frost formations.

[andy_leics22]

I'm still not convinced about Friday yet.

The GFS 12z has moved the snow band a little further West again, it still looks like the East Midlands would see a period of light/moderate snow though, just not as much as the 06z was predicting.

UKMO 12z still looks good though

[Macey]

UKMO all the way!

[Polar Low]

I'm still not convinced about Friday yet.

The GFS 12z has moved the snow band a little further West again, it still looks like the East Midlands would see a period of light/moderate snow though, just not as much as the 06z was predicting.

UKMO 12z still looks good though

Pretty much as it has been forecast for the last 48 hours, then.

Happy enough.

[MKN]

I think our margin for error has been greatly reduced should the gfs/nae prove correct any further west and we won't get anything of note. Hopefully a shift back east on the 18z otherwise a case of waiting to see which is correct tommorow when they should all agree

[kev238]

Not sure why you think the nae has moved westwards.. The crucial frame would be the next one. From what I can see the nae shows the snow across the whole region, albeit llight to moderate at best.

I must admit I am slightly more worried this afternoon than this morning after the 6z run. However, that is due to to the gfs charts whereas ukmo charts push precipitation all the way through to the far east.

[sub zero]

Not sure why you think the nae has moved westwards.. The crucial frame would be the next one. From what I can see the nae shows the snow across the whole region, albeit llight to moderate at best.

I must admit I am slightly more worried this afternoon than this morning after the 6z run. However, that is due to to the gfs charts whereas ukmo charts push precipitation all the way through to the far east.

[00geotor]

This map includes Western Leicestershire and the whole of Derbyshire in the Amber Zone.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/heavy_snow_warning

[Bolton67]

Just checked the NMM up to 12:00 on Friday.

Ppn just coming into The very west parts of the East Mids.

http://nwstatic.co.u...31e47b47f01e57;

http://nwstatic.co.u...31e47b47f01e57;

[kev238]

After looking through all the models it does appear a slight shift towards disrupting the low pressure a little further west than this morning. Our region is on the edge... Still ok for some snow but perhaps not a disruptive fall of fifteen centimetres.

[shaky]

Any news on the ecmwf!!is it any better for us

[weatherguy]

Not seen the specifics in the short term, but it's certainly looking better for continuation of cold than the garbage that was the GFS 12z!

[MKN]

well the lack of posts sums up things for us right now. Hopefully a shift north east will show up on the 18zs. Ukmo still looks decent and gfs isn't a complete disaster more like 5cm rather than 10+ Fri to sat. My only concern is if things get shifted even further south west on the next couple of runs its game over, until next chance anyway.

If anyone got the ecm precip charts for the the 12z id be interested to see them.

Edited January 16, 2013 by SnowTornado

[Strider]

NAE pushes the snow further east (or rather faster at least) than most of the other models, starting the snow at midnight Thurs/Fri

[Bolton67]

well according to the MetO I've got 45 hours of non stop snow coming, starting at 12:00 Friday afternoon

[weatherguy]

well according to the MetO I've got 45 hours of non stop snow coming, starting at 12:00 Friday afternoon

Ha! your poultry 45 hours is no match for my 51 hours!

[MKN]

Ecm precip charts look better for the east mids so possible more than 5cm. All I can confirm is nothings assured as gem,ukmo,ecm,gfs all have precip fri/sat slightly different

[Bolton67]

Ha! your poultry 45 hours is no match for my 51 hours!

I might have mis-counted

[shaky]

Ecm precip charts look better for the east mids so possible more than 5cm. All I can confirm is nothings assured as gem,ukmo,ecm,gfs all have precip fri/sat slightly different

YES!!!!thank god!!ecm to the rescue!!i personally think the whole of the midlands is going to get a snowy battering on friday/saturday!!