East Midlands Regional Discussion

[kmanmx]

GFS 06z even at +06 hours has the band of precipitation looking totally different to that of 00z at +12 hours. The 06z has the precipitation band more tightly formed.

edit:

As of 06z + 15 the band is now less intense towards the north, the precipitation intensity is more even across the entire band. Potentially beneficial, or not

Edited January 17, 2013 by kmanmx

[MKN]

At +27 gfs looking interesting if this low that matt H talked about forms then if it gains strength could increase precip and help push it into our region

[steelermark]

Think I'll just stick to radar and window watching from here. One run goes west, the next east. I'm not sure any model has got it nailed. 5cm for Chesterfield would suite me fine, with hopefully a bigger top up Mon/Tues. Least I'll still be able to get to the ice hockey in Sheffield!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z pushes it East folks, better this, just bbc now that isnt that promising

[MKN]

+33 much further east slightly heavier also.

[andy_leics22]

I am somewhat confused that MetO has yet to change it's mind. The forecast for Leicester is largely the same as it was a day or two ago. Despite the fact models have been showing it not getting as far east as originally thought.

Perhaps MetO know something we don't. Which to be fair, is quite likely.

The BBC forecast this morning didn't look too good for Leicester. Showed the PPN staying just South West of birmingham.

[MKN]

06Z pushes it East folks, better this, just bbc now that isnt that promising

BBC won't change until after metoffice update there warnings. Maybe the 130 forecast will be better

[kmanmx]

I don't really like BBC forecast. Prefer directly from the MetO, I find it more reliable personally.

Anyway, 06z GFS is looking better so far. Quite a lot better

GFS 06z + 42 hours:

Edited January 17, 2013 by kmanmx

[andy_leics22]

I must admit, after seeing that 06z i am slightly more optimistic! Only slightly though. the 12z and 18z need to follow the 06z for me to start getting excited. Its a step in the right direction though.

[kmanmx]

Well, if the 12z and 18z follow suit that is great. If not, then we atleast know they actually don't know a thing and we will be better off just nowcasting.

[Ryan05]

As said in earlier in the thread, for once Im not too bothered if we get snow because I want the Forest v Derby game to definitely be on this saturday, so SODs law means we will get snow when im actually not too fussed.

The good news for us this morning, is that signs are improving for us in the East. The Met office guy on Radio Nottingham this morning said we wont get the really heavy stuff but by the end of the day could have at least 5cm which would be a decent top up for what is still left in Nottingham from Monday, my garden for example is still covered. So certainly no blizzards for us but looking better

[XENA]

The NAE is better this morning and shows snow over the East Mids all weekend as well as tomorrow. Not necessarily heavy, but snow. The forecasts will chop and change so dont panic everyone

[LadyEv06]

Light flurry here at the moment.

[hilldweller]

The met office have updated their forecast for saturday and beyond but not for tomorrow, they havent got a clue !!!!

Or they are waiting for the 12z to roll out ............

[shaky]

Warnings are a bit weird!!i dont think they got a clue about whats going to happen tomorow.

[jimben]

The yellow warning have been updated http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/em_forecast_warnings.html

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Yes I thought it looked a bit weird too.

The text for the yellow warning mentions Wales, SW England and NI for the main band, with showers in eastern coastal districts. According to that text alone we maybe shouldn't even be under the yellow.

The orange warning hasn't been updated yet, so keep an eye out for that soon.

[MKN]

Yes I thought it looked a bit weird too.

The text for the yellow warning mentions Wales, SW England and NI for the main band, with showers in eastern coastal districts. According to that text alone we maybe shouldn't even be under the yellow.

The orange warning hasn't been updated yet, so keep an eye out for that soon.

From what I can see the only updated warnings are Saturdays and Sundays.

[rock500]

Red warning now out for south wales !

[hilldweller]

Update from the met office !!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/em_forecast_warnings.html

Here it is......Batten down the hatches !!!

[Macey]

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Here it is......Batten down the hatches !!!

Awww yeah. I expect you to ring a loud church bell when it hits you at Hellidon, then I can prepare

[kmanmx]

Well, leicester isn't in amber warning, no surprise there then

[SL7]

Feel slightly silly for getting all excited over the past few days now haha

Edited January 17, 2013 by SL7

[kmanmx]

Feel slightly silly for getting all excited over the past few days now haha

Even if we were in the Red warning, MetO fail to take into account infamous Leicester snow shield. I heard a whileback that it can deflect up to 15cm/hour of snow.