South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18/02/13 20z --->

[snowmadchrisuk]

Yeah looking at the radar I think the term "Thames Barrier" has adopted a new meaning, it seems to be fending everything off, and keeping it in the North Sea..

That one streak heading into Wales, managed to go over the top of it!

That's true , The Nae isn't making hardly anything of the SW Showers tomorrow , so I am hoping that's wrong , I wonder what MOGREPS and UKV is showing , Ian said it was being persistent for a couple of CM South Coast tomorrow , I hope it is still showing that. It's his Birthday by the way today so I am not gonna bother him

Edited February 21, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Nights King]

-1.2c and windy so penetrating frost tonight for the poor plants

Lets hope it kills some bugs off!

[legritter]

That streak earlier did produce some tiny grains it needed 5 mins of watching a 500watt halogen lamp ,think most of it evaporated on its way down .i think tomorrow evening could see a few flurrys in our area .certainly a bitter day today my walk with the dog was the coldest of the winter so far ,shame we never had this set up back in january .nice to see the countryside drying out a little .

[gottolovethisweather]

Indeed an Easterly flow in February is truly unbeatable when it comes to its brutal cold feel.

I also am very happy for it to remain for a few days as the drying process will be greatly aided by a stonger breeze.

It may well confuse one or two of the early plants and other critters but they will bounce back. It will also hopefully produce a few snowflakes for a fair few of us and kill off the last few pests.

Currently -0.1c AT after a Max of 2.3c, -4.7c DP, -1.6c windchill, 3mph 10min avg ENE wind.

[cerneman]

-0.4 with cold wind, Had to light heater in greenhouse,now got my seeds sown,,,,,,,,,,

[jtay]

-1.2c and windy so penetrating frost tonight for the poor plants

Lets hope it kills some bugs off!

Too right. There are still loads of midges around as a consequence of all this groundwater.

[gottolovethisweather]

I haven't looked into the upcoming synoptics of late and as to add to AWDs analysis, I will simply reproduce Gibby's summary of the 12z output from the in depth discussion thread in here for your perusal.

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Good evening. Here is the report of tonight's 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Thursday February 21st 2013.

All models show a settled spell of weather continuing over the UK for some considerable time as High pressure persists to the North or NE of the UK. A cold and raw East wind will continue to blow across the South and West of the UK over the following two to three days. A lot of low Stratocumulus cloud will be trapped under the cold dry air over the UK giving snow grains or light snow showers at times in exposure to the NE, like Eastern Coasts and hills though even here only small amounts are expected. The first few days of next week sees little change in the overall pattern though the biting NE wind will decrease in the South by Monday and the coldest conditions will temper over the UK the further we progress towards midweek.

GFS then shows High pressure slowly weakening over the UK next week but the weather stays fine and dry for many with some sunshine by day and frosty nights. Eventually pressure falls from the North with unsettled weather gradually developing first in the North and more generally later as Low pressure develops over the UK with rain and showers for all in much increased and moister winds. Though milder than currently some hill snow is likely in the North and over the hills. The run ends with rather chilly and unsettled conditions continuing as Low pressure spirals around the West of the UK with rain and strong winds at times.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show the current cold uppers lasting for two or three more days before a steep if temporary rise early next week takes hold. The rest of the run shows a further colder dip in 10 days or so with the usual spaghetti mixture at the end. Rainfall amounts will increase towards the end of the run.

The Jet Stream continues to flow in two arms, one well to the North of the UK and one well to the South. A temporary link is made from the Southern arm to the Northern arm towards the middle of next week before the pattern reverts to a similar shape to that currently.

UKMO for the middle of next week shows a large High pressure anchored close to Eastern Scotland and NE England with a much slacker NE flow over the South by then. All areas will remain on the cold side, especially at night as further sharp frosts are to be expected but with less wind and somewhat more sunshine possible daytime's should gradually feel less cold, especially in the South.

ECM shows High pressure over Northern Britain too at the middle of next week before it loses it's identity leaving slack winds over the UK with fine and dry weather continuing with variable cloud cover. Frosts at night would still be commonplace and daytime's too could still be on the cold side of average though less cold than currently. Later in it's run Low pressure is centred near the Azores and High pressure over Canada with Low pressure over the Norwegian Sea. An attempted Northerly does largely fail though there is sufficient instability set up over the UK for some rainfall to develop towards the end of the run and with rather cold conditions still likely some snow could fall over higher ground.

In Summary the weather looks like remaining High pressure influenced over the coming week or so with any changes to the overall pattern not expected until after that point. That means very cold and frosty weather through the next 4-5 days with a lot of cloud and some small snowfalls possible in the East. With time as the High both slips further South and loses it's strength the coldest temperatures will be tempered as the cold air mixes out with milder uppers in the circulation of the High. Nevertheless it still looks more likely to stay on the cold side of average for many beyond next week with slack winds and large amounts of cloud together with the chance of rain and hill snow suppressing temperatures rather than the usual milder Atlantic winds or sunshine.

Edited February 21, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[stevofunnelcl]

That wind cuts right through

Probably a bad idea to go naked rambling on Dartmoor this weekend then

I feel why they call it Beast from East

[cerneman]

There was a Easter week that it snowed heavy for number hours when lived in Weymouth,,,Schools had to close and snowplough cleared Wyke Road in weymouth.

It did turn to rain after 3 or 4 hours of moderate snow. Could of only have been week leading to Easter of 1979,1980 or very slim chance 1981,,,,,,,Looking at dates for those Easters they all fell in April, Remember that snow settling in Weymouth in deep winter is rare This snow fell in April and did settle and caused disruption, So would like to know what synoptics brought that snow Proof late snow possible even on South Coast in April,

[Costa Del Fal]

Just to note my website is now also providing forecasts for the Channel Islands as again, they are also rather left out even if they are small!

More to be done to the website over the weekend hopefully.

http://cornwallweather.moonfruit.com/#/channel-islands/4573977985

[Costa Del Fal]

Do i see the radar showing the first bits of precipitation gathering just off the coast near Salcombe now?

[cornish snow]

Do i see the radar showing the first bits of precipitation gathering just off the coast near Salcombe now?

Just come back from darts match,dosn't feel cold enough for snow. Think the wind has dropped a touch, making it feel less cold.

Car still says 3 degrees though . Bit to warm for snow?

Just to say, your website is great. Love the palm trees and the yatchs in the bay,come on summer

Edited February 22, 2013 by cornish snow

[Costa Del Fal]

Just come back from darts match,dosn't feel cold enough for snow. Think the wind has dropped a touch, making it feel less cold.

Car still says 3 degrees though . Bit to warm for snow?

Just to say, your website is great. Love the palm trees and the yatchs in the bay,come on summer

It is true the temperature is above 0 however the Dewpoint is well below 0c which is most important. In fact its about -3c which quite frankly is excellent for Cornwall. As long as the DP stays below 0c all is good. If this set up of frigid air doesnt bring something wintry, nothing will.

And thanks about the website. Its coming on nicely now. Dont intend to add much more but will keep experimenting for now. Have got twitter for the site now too twitter.com/kernowweather

Edited February 22, 2013 by Blizzards

[Uncle Gargy]

So cold even the Smurfs have turned a darker shade of blue!

[snowmadchrisuk]

The NAE gives some of us a chance of some Light Snow tomorrow .

[gottolovethisweather]

Well I can claim another snow day at least, can see a snowflake or two from overnight settled on the dustbin.

Quite possible that a few of us will be getting a dusting over the coming hours but we will have to see how the organised the band of precipitation gets.

Edited February 22, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

No snow here but a bitterly cold wind evident.

Overcast though.

[Dorsetbred]

The NAE gives some of us a chance of some Light Snow tomorrow .

Viewing the NAE, shows that the Dorset snowdome is solidly in place

[Argyle1980]

Hey ..... It's snowing in Cornwall..... I'm working on the coast nr st mawes :-)

[cornish snow]

Bleakest day of the winter here,very overcast and biting gale force Eastely. Big big waves in the bay.

There is just about something coming out of the sky,but it looks distinctly watery to me.Going to truro later,might see a grain or two there.

EDIT I take it back,it is just about snowing just about

Edited February 22, 2013 by cornish snow

[gottolovethisweather]

Re: the earlier radar grab. Bad news, seems the air is so dry currently that the precipitation is evaporating as it falls from the sky, resulting in just a few snowflakes reaching the ground.

Nevertheless, for us snow seekers there is still HOPE, especially when Cornwall is said to getting in on the act.

Edited February 22, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Moments later, it is SNOWING here in Newbury, very little if nothing showing on the radar. An intriguing day.

[smoggyjester]

just had some light snow here would say 5p sized flakes but v light

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like less flurries for Cornwall than expected however there are a few flakes presently falling.

[Coast]

NW extra NMM precip charts animated for the next 2 days for thoughts and ideas:

I wouldn't start polishing the sledges just yet......