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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 27/7/13 13z------>

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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Jezzer Explorer

Jezzer

Posted
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny Summer days and deep snow in Winter with everything in between
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
Posted

Needless to say, with a forecast like this I bet Seb Coe is pleased the Olympics opened up a year ago and not tonight! :)

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If Wishes made Weather Explorer

If Wishes made Weather

Posted
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
Posted

Well, looking at the 50deg c contour and the low pressure system, this lloks good for Stortford, but history tells us that the herts/Essex boarder is somehow a place without serious weather, so I'll just have to wait and see ...

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

More 12z charts,

 

Here's the storm relative helicity charts [1]

 

First the lower 1km,

 

post-5986-0-06334300-1374942066_thumb.pnpost-5986-0-25091400-1374942074_thumb.pn

 

Here's the lower 3km,

 

post-5986-0-71000800-1374942092_thumb.pnpost-5986-0-67719700-1374942104_thumb.pn

 

Check out the association with low. Values greater than 150 imply supercells are possible. When you get past 300 supercell formation is probable. Given those figures, I'd go for quite some serious MCS with maybe 40% chance of supercell.

 

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrodynamical_helicity

 

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Heisenberg Aficionado

Heisenberg

Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
Posted (edited)

ITS HEADING RIGHT FOR US.....

 

Seriously though, I just want to wish you all good luck. We're all counting on you!!

post-11316-0-90017400-1374942155_thumb.j

post-11316-0-18043100-1374942250_thumb.j

Edited by lloydyd
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

More 12z charts,

 

Looking at the 1km charts, it looks like surface shear is quite limited to East Kent. Perhaps a water spout or two, but not very likely,

 

post-5986-0-88603300-1374942398_thumb.pn

 

Looking at deep layer shear (6km) the good stuff becomes limited to the SE by 21z,

 

post-5986-0-23323200-1374942456_thumb.pn

 

Shear is one of the ingredients required to get showers to turn into thunderstorms.

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted

In from work and nothing has happened, I delayed it all a bit, selfish of me I know, A few beers then home to watch it all Mice 

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Heisenberg Aficionado

Heisenberg

Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
Posted

The first batch of rain has started.....bring it on the garden is thirsty

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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

horrid and humid here

 

 

been sorting out the washing and it has gone very close here.

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Heisenberg Aficionado

Heisenberg

Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
Posted

North - North east.. The upper winds are controlling where it goes.. You can tell by the white "dots" on this radar..

 

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php

 

So am i going to get hit? It does seem to be heading this way?

Hi Saint...Nice to see you fella. Are we in the line or what?

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nanu Enthusiast

nanu

Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
Posted

So that storm in the channel is heading in which direction because I can't tell looking at the radar

North east.. lightning is on our side of the storm.. just wet on the western flank of it so far

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Golden Hound Newbie

Golden Hound

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk.
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk.
Posted

Gotta go to work now, will be driving till 1am, wondering if its gonna be possible after 8pm, will the drain covers get lifted off with flash flooding? hasn't happen here for 4 years or so.

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted

Rain has arrived. Awaiting any lightning. 

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saint Rising Star

saint

Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
Posted

So am i going to get hit? It does seem to be heading this way?

Hi Saint...Nice to see you fella. Are we in the line or what?

 

Hi Lloyd, hope you're well.

 

The main system looks generally to be edging just to west of us, however, lots of lightning strikes are showing up on the Eastern edge of it, meaning we may have a decent chance of seeing something.

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nanu Enthusiast

nanu

Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
Posted (edited)

Looks like its dying a death once again thanks to the bloody channel... what is it with that flippin piece of water.. (trying not to swear here..) bet its just rain when it gets here Posted Image

 

just to prove my statement.. watch the reds dissolve

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Home/ZoomRadar?lat=50.995&lon=2.709090909090909&z=7&x=521&y=486

Edited by nanu
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

So am i going to get hit? It does seem to be heading this way?

Hi Saint...Nice to see you fella. Are we in the line or what?

 

This should help: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77391-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-27713-13z/?p=2753450

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted

In from work and nothing has happened, I delayed it all a bit, selfish of me I know, A few beers then home to watch it all Mice 

Er I mean Nice

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

Looks like its dying a death once again thanks to the bloody channel... what is it with that flippin piece of water.. (trying not to swear here..) bet its just rain when it gets here Posted Image

 

This should help: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77391-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-27713-13z/?p=2753450

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