scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion 16/12/2013 >

[November13]

Same as Polmont coldest day temp was 1c for whole of December. No air frost and average of 7.6c. Despite the recent storm and colder weather there still has been no lying snow for more than an hour and that's yesterday. Hoping for some snow on Christmas Eve but it's those uppers that worry me!

[Buriedundersnow]

hi everyone sorry for just leaving without saying anything have a lot going on just now that's really really important and needed to give all of my time to that as I was starting to get brain melt (too much information for the small brain I have lol) but back for now.

 

had some snow yesterday which gave a covering but didn't stick around for long unfortunately I couldn't get any pics as my phone seems to have had an argument with a wall but will have a new phone for future snow.

 

looks like moving into January we will possibly see a change to the zonal onslaught we have been seeing just now with developments in the strat of some interest and also the forecasts for the AO and NAO on the slide from where they were so the next couple of weeks might start to see some interesting things coming from the models which the GFS 12z started showing yesterday.

 

[over_the_rainbow]

Hey BUS! Glad you've popped back and hope everything's ok.

 

I shall dare to look in the model thread to see what the chit chat is regrading christmas eve etc

[JoeShmoe]

Xmas eve storm is back with a vengenance

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

[BleakMidwinter]

Walked over Bruntsfield Links to meet a pal for lunch at Tollcross. the knitting-model says the temperature dropped considerably between 11.30am and 1.30pm (ie I was fine knitting as I walked to meet her, but had to give up halfway home as even with mitts my fingers got clumsy with the cold).Re the 24th… I'm just letting friends know that there's potential for a spot of bad wild weather, but that it's still at several days hence, and the only accurate weather forecast is at T=now… but yeah, if they can travel on the 23rd, it's probably as well to. And maybe finish shed roof repairs before rather than leaving it til after Xmas… 

[mistyqueen]

Blawin' up yet another hoolie here. It would seem that this is chicken feed in comparison to what's expected next week. Quite worrying really, I'm expecting Xmas visitor on Monday 23rd, don't know if the bus will even make it across the bridge!

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 12z strat forecast keeps ramping up the warming today with another colour into the forecast for the first time this winter and hopefully we will see this continue then come into range of the ECM

 

 

EDIT: also seeing -12c showing in the 10hpa forecast

 

Edited December 20, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Ravelin]

Met Office have already issued a Yellow weather warning for Wind on Monday and Tuesday that covers all but the far SE of Scotland (also covers NI and most of the Western UK coastline).

 

Currently it says

 

A very deep area of low pressure will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to much of the UK from Monday morning, through to late Tuesday morning. There is the potential for widespread gales with gusts of 70 mph for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, southern and northwest England. Gusts of 80-90 mph are possible, with the greatest likelihood of these values across west Scotland.

 

Need to see how it develops over the next few days but that kind of suggests it'll span the two days so when is best to travel will probably depend quite a lot on the location.

[NUT]

Golly it ain't half wild out there again! But not cold

[skyeblue]

Only got 2/1 for a White Xmas at wully hill ,no point putting anything on

[Hairy Celt]

GFS 12z strat forecast keeps ramping up the warming today with another colour into the forecast for the first time this winter and hopefully we will see this continue then come into range of the ECM

 

npst30.png

 

EDIT: also seeing -12c showing in the 10hpa forecast

 

gfsnh-10-384.png

 

Good to have you back BUS, hope your hints at something more wintry firm up over the next while.

 

The Xmas Eve storm looks pretty mental for some.  If I was Santa, I'd be getting pretty worried about having so many landings / take-offs in such poor conditions.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[snow1975]

Met Office have already issued a Yellow weather warning for Wind on Monday and Tuesday that covers all but the far SE of Scotland (also covers NI and most of the Western UK coastline).

 

Currently it says

 

 

 

 

Need to see how it develops over the next few days but that kind of suggests it'll span the two days so when is best to travel will probably depend quite a lot on the location.

Surely the warning ought to be amber at this stage. It looks worse than earlier this week and that caused structural damage. Could be red on Tues.

[skyeblue]

You should jump into the severe weather thread . It has gone mental in there

[chemikal]

Just drove home in horrible conditions. There was a pretty bad accident between two cars near Shawfield Stadium. Thankfully everyone looked ok. My mate said that he drove past two accidents on the M77 accidents between Braehead and his house in East Kilbride. Be careful if you have to go out!

 

I'm just about to drive carefully to my sister in laws for a family get together so I'm posting the alternative Xmas song before I go. One for all you dog lovers out there.

 

The song is called 'Christmas Is Going To The Dogs' by Eels. The video is not an upload of mine but it is always nice to have some moving pictures. R.I.P Jack, you looked like a lovely dog

 

 

Enjoy!

[Buriedundersnow]

Good to have you back BUS, hope your hints at something more wintry firm up over the next while.

 

The Xmas Eve storm looks pretty mental for some.  If I was Santa, I'd be getting pretty worried about having so many landings / take-offs in such poor conditions.

 

 

I hope so too but we will have to wait and see.

 

one thing of note I have picked up on the GFS and done a little paint on over the last 3 runs.

 

BLACK: is the two high pressures one in the Atlantic and the other on the US eastern seaboard.

 

YELLOW: is the movement of the PV through the 3 runs.

 

now if we notice the high pressures seem to be gaining strength run on run and with the arrows showing the general movement of the PV with one piece pulling around from Siberia eastwards and the other to the west of Greenland which is showing signs of wanting to pull away over us toward Scandinavia.

 

now if we were to look toward a possible immediate trop response then this might be something to keep an eye on with the GFS as if we could get the PV to pull away from Greenland without leaving anything behind we might possibly have a shot of heights pushing in towards Greenland.

 

 

now this is a long way off at the end of the runs so as usual not set in stone but with the warming seeming to be forecast to grow in intensity and subsequent runs showing this build in the trop its worth a look just now to see if anything develops and moves forward.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Just seen the charts for 1st time today. Holy sheet!

 

A 932mb bomb on our shores?

 

Edited December 20, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[over_the_rainbow]

Is it too early to ask when is a good time to travel on Christmas Eve? Morning or afternoon?

[pdiddy]

Only got 2/1 for a White Xmas at wully hill ,no point putting anything on

7/2 on betfair for Edi and Glasgow!

[Hiya]

Just seen the charts for 1st time today. Holy sheet!

 

A 932mb bomb on our shores?

 

 

There isn't much of a pressure gradient actually.  Fortunately!

[BleakMidwinter]

There isn't much of a pressure gradient actually.  Fortunately!

Bit of a learning curve for me here - 932 is obviously *very* low (record is 927, mid-19th century Perthshire, iirc?)BUT if it drops gradually, ie those lines are not packed bang-on-top-of each other, then it's not too dangerously stormy. It's when it drops 40mB in a few hours that you get bombogenesis, yes? And that's A Bad Thing, yes?And at present although this looks really windy and blowy for the 24th, it isn't that dramatic sudden drop, so we may yet get away with it just being very windy rather than huge swirling gusting winds ripping everything to pieces?

[Hiya]

Bit of a learning curve for me here - 932 is obviously *very* low (record is 927, mid-19th century Perthshire, iirc?)BUT if it drops gradually, ie those lines are not packed bang-on-top-of each other, then it's not too dangerously stormy. It's when it drops 40mB in a few hours that you get bombogenesis, yes? And that's A Bad Thing, yes?And at present although this looks really windy and blowy for the 24th, it isn't that dramatic sudden drop, so we may yet get away with it just being very windy rather than huge swirling gusting winds ripping everything to pieces?

 

Well this LP goes from Svalbard to Morocco with the centre at 940 mB, if it went from Iceland to Ireland, say sandwiched in with a high pressure somewhere then you'd get a huge gradient, tight isobars, and we end up in Denmark or Norway!  I'm sure someone will explain it better than me!

[Cheggers]

Just seen the charts for 1st time today. Holy sheet!

 

A 932mb bomb on our shores?

 

Never mind going out and turning the snaw shield aff, it will just blow away.

[Cheggers]

The Xmas Eve storm looks pretty mental for some.  If I was Santa, I'd be getting pretty worried about having so many landings / take-offs in such poor conditions.

I'm sure Ryanair will help out. 

B;awing a hoolie again here, but at least the rain has stopped.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Cheggers

[BleakMidwinter]

 

B;awing a hoolie again here, but at least the rain has stopped.

Yep, that's 'cause of us having the rain here just now. Along with the hoolie. Whose turn's it next? I've missed First Class last posting date, but honest, it's no trouble to pack this weather up and get it to the Post Office in the morning and send it Express which is still fine for you to have it all for Christmas… No, really..Honest, nae trouble at all - just let me know where to send it all… 

[Cheggers]

Can we have one of these atop Ben Nevis please.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25467790