Scotland - Weather Chat

[A Winter's Tale]

I'm a little disappointed with the output today, mainly the easterly for next week which has sunk south and is looking less potent. The next few days will see some areas in Scotland get a decent fall but after that, those south of the border look to be in prime position for fronts and lows.

However, tomorrow is a new day...

Well at least the next 7 days are looking cold with potentially some very cold temperatures on some days. In terms of longevity if the cold spell and snow prospects today had been somewhat of a downgrade. Some parts of the country should see snow showers in the next 72hrs - I'm not optimistic about anything mounting up to much here but there are opportunities for a few surprises in places this weekend. Sadly the frontal snow event for Tuesday looks set to miss most of Scotland as so often is the case in such scenarios the front sinks south from where it was projected to be. After that a largely dry, but very cold few days with some snow showers in eastern areas but most of the activity will be south of the border. However it is impossible to judge snow prospects in such scenarios beyond 48hrs so there's still plenty of interest next week but I've got a feeling that we may need another attempt at HLB to be more successful on the snow front.

[LomondSnowstorm]

(damned image limit)

and even if it did we'd be up to our ankles in snow by that point anyway.

 

The GFS 18Z is promising because it's a faster solution (i.e. worse for frontal snow up here) but also one that almost manages to stave off the worst of a slush fest:

 

and then manages to keep it going for longer once we do get some decent cold in:

 

We've seen numerous occasions where marginal uppers on easterlies upgrade closer to the time - even in January 2013 we saw a bit of that, but it was just that even -8C uppers weren't enough to stop slushing at the coast from a southeasterly. Fortunately this time it looks like we're more likely to be dealing with, at worst, a straight easterly, but potentially something a bit more to the north of east, and in addition if we can get help from a decent cold northerly over the inland US then we might even manage the holy grail for Scottish cold - an Arctic sourced NErly.

[edo]

Magic LS hope the paper serves you well....really can't comp!ain about this setup....build the cold and the snow will surely come ..

[A Winter's Tale]

Alright, sorry for my absence, had a hellish Quantum Mechanics hand in to do for today (is there any other type?) and pipe band this evening.

Anyway, we're still on for some snow tomorrow....

Now there's a lot of uncertainty around this and subsequent developments, particularly RE how far south the low gets, how long and cold the easterly flow that follows is and whether the poor folks on the M4 can ever conclusively know whether it's going to snow or rain, but if the above chart did come off as modelled, with a slack southerly surface flow and an Atlantic occlusion, then we (even Hawesy, although that's only because he'll be in Lancashire) would be digging ourselves out by Wednesday morning. The issue is then what comes after - the likelihood is an easterly, but the problem is that, if the low disrupts enough to bring in an easterly but not properly drag enough cold air west, we end up in a horrific east coast slush fest, at least for a few hours. The UKMO, with its slow progression and potential phasing of the real cold air out in Siberia with our trough longer term, would almost certainly avoid that:

A very good summary of the upcoming cold period LS. I didn't notice that occlusion on Saturday night and the fax chart looks interesting wrt the front next week. It just goes to show how many important details are at play in set us such as this. From what I've seen in the models today that front next week seemed to have tracked further south - which happened a lot in 2013 - with lighter precipitation struggling to get much beyond southern and western parts of the country. Hopefully as details firm up over the weekend the models could paint a pretty picture for much of Scotland. If we can get some decent and widespread snow cover then that should bode well for very low temperatures as well.

Edited January 16, 2015 by lorenzo
Magic post from LS re-quoting in full took up whole page of thread !

[Polar Gael]

Another superb double post, LS - many thanks for the update.

Sounds like there will be plenty of cold and snow opportunities for all of us in this next spell.

-16C progged for here for 6pm on Monday night..!

Also, is that an attempt at a cheeky wee Omega Block on the Wednesday chart? Doesn't look like it is going to take hold, but if it did, this spell could become much more prolonged.

Hope all went well with the Quantum Mechanics and the piping - at least it wasn't Quantum Piping - that would properly melt yer heid...

[moffatross]

Thanks for that excellent analysis, LS. 

 

Some of the most exciting potential for wintry weather we've seen for a while. From the skiing perspective, the main resorts are already sorted, but for the interestingly niche skiing that comes into season not too often, it could be game on soon. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

A very good summary of the upcoming cold period LS. I didn't notice that occlusion on Saturday night and the fax chart looks interesting wrt the front next week. It just goes to show how many important details are at play in set us such as this. From what I've seen in the models today that front next week seemed to have tracked further south - which happened a lot in 2013 - with lighter precipitation struggling to get much beyond southern and western parts of the country. Hopefully as details firm up over the weekend the models could paint a pretty picture for much of Scotland. If we can get some decent and widespread snow cover then that should bode well for very low temperatures as well.

Cheers, I have to say that, while I really hope the UKMO version comes off, sliders usually do end up further south west than initially modelled. In the long run that's possibly a good thing if the cold pool to the east upgrades a but and then the blocking gets its act together (good post by Tamara in the MT as always about why any sinking high may not stay sunk for long), but to be honest I'd far rather take the almost guaranteed major countrywide snowfall that the UKMO scenario would bring.

 

Magic LS hope the paper serves you well....really can't comp!ain about this setup....build the cold and the snow will surely come ..

My thoughts exactly - certainly tomorrow through to Thursday are *almost* certain to be very cold no matter what else happens and while it won't snow all the time it certainly isn't some sort of 'faux cold' setup - any of us could easily see accumulating snow on any of the next 7 days AND not have it melt during that time, and we haven't had that in at least 2 years.

 

Another superb double post, LS - many thanks for the update. Sounds like there will be plenty of cold and snow opportunities for all of us in this next spell. -16C progged for here for 6pm on Monday night..! Also, is that an attempt at a cheeky wee Omega Block on the Wednesday chart? Doesn't look like it is going to take hold, but if it did, this spell could become much more prolonged. Hope all went well with the Quantum Mechanics and the piping - at least it wasn't Quantum Piping - that would properly melt yer heid...

Looks a bit like it, with that mass of cold over Eurasia by that point it certainly wouldn't take much tweaking of the pattern to extend it out to 2+ weeks...

[Bonjangle]

We shall now take your Snow , thanks for giving it to us here in Taffy land ' you need to share it at times 

[snawbaw]

Snowing in Glengarry. Temperatures dropped quickly over the last hour from 3.1 to 0.7 with ground temperatures at -0.5. Rain to snow, hope it sticks

[Blizzardo]

First snow shower of the day. Settling immediately with a temperature of 1.7c and dewpoint -1.0c. A good sign for the rest of the day.

[Kayemill]

Snowing lightly with a big flash of lightning. 1.2 deg.

[CoastRainbow]

Snow here in Gourock that's the 4th day in a week loving it

[mistyqueen]

Morning snow seeking Kilties from a rather white Skye! Yes, gentle reader, the snow hath fallen! Not in great bucket loads mind, but we do have a nice wee covering here, maybe a couple of cm's. A bit nippy too, currently _1.1c. Long may it continue as I was getting kinda fed up o' the wind and rain. We also had a 3 hour power cut here last night, but at least it was only 3 hours. Some folks were off for 5 days in parts of Skye.

[Northernlights]

We have a dusting also and its currently 0c. Long may it continue and help to banish the mud.

[jellybaby1969]

Snowing lightly with a big flash of lightning. 1.2 deg.

Must have been a flurry here too...some snow on cars and grass.

[Kayemill]

Killie Snow Shield Status = OFFLINE ( A wee dusting in Killie )

 

Hail stones in Prestwick and reports of Snow in Irvine on the radio.

 

Hopefully we'll see some more later

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Clear this morning, air temp just above freezing at 0.3c.

[GraemeB]

Yep - somebody forgot to stick in 20p to the Stirling Protection Covers.

 

Dusting recorded before a supervisor came in and deposited 50p.

 

Bah

[blitzen]

Morning....Thanks for a great and detailed post as usual LS.   I am sure your paper will be a credit to you.   What the hell is quantum mechanics?

 

Have included a snippet from Joe B who also thinks there is something coming up:   Siberian high

 

extension maybe?

 

 

 

 

 

"Europe under the gun too, as severe winter weather takes hold for 2-3 weeks.   1st time since winter 10-11 that both US/ Europe getting it at the same time."

 

The usual ankle nippers causing MT to descend into a wrist slitting session I see!  

 

0.1c/-1.2c.   Looks as if today will be a cold and settled one. 

Edited January 16, 2015 by Blitzen

[edo]

Great stuff misty.....looks like the bankathon is over for another few hours in the MT..... Crewecold probably shaking in a rage on his rocking chair on the front porch shouting cleeeeeeeeetus they said the snow was gonna come but now they gone and take it away....

Dry and much cooler fresher air feel here....lovely morning don't think we will see any here today but the chase is on again...

[Guest]

Must have been a flurry here too...some snow on cars and grass.

 

Wooo hooo!! Glad for you I'm hoping for more for everyone in the coming days, especially for lowland Ayrshire, coastal Fife, Aberdeen and, of course, the lower Tweed Valley

 

Edit: GraemeB popping up has reminded me to add Stirling to that list

Edited January 16, 2015 by CatchMyDrift

[Northern Strath]

A wee top up overnight, an inch or so. A couple of showers this morning but just passing, expecting more extended ones as the day progresses

The prospect of prolonged cold is good but also just glad to see the back of the wind, that (insert swear) wind

-1.4C

[Frozen Britain]

Snow in Kilmaurs too this morning. A very slight dusting at 7am this morning then another brief fall not long ago.

[GrangemouthBairn]

1.1/-2.8 here, clear skies to the east and cloudy to the west. Must have been a really light snow shower earlier with white speckles on the windscreen

[Cheggers]

-2 early this morning with a wee flurry dusting everywhere.