Scotland - Weather Chat

[Hairy Celt]

hc wash your mouth out after that imby post....I take it you have a feeling ure just gonna be dry and cold...I think I know what I will think once LS or Lorenzo extract the digit and do their jobs

 

Yeah, imby post guv, I confess, because to be honest I don't give a flying one whether it's snowy in Edinburgh or Perth any more than Manchester or Swindon (with apologies to residents of all thos elovely places).

 

I'd say the northern Highlands will get another covering over this weekend largely to make up for what's just been washed away, but beyond that, I'd say it's a bit doubtful. Easterlies are a waste of time for here, as was shown last winter and the one before.

 

Gimme a northerly every time!

[GrangemouthBairn]

I thought the temperature would have fallen this afternoon but it's went up. When I got in at 2 it was 3.0c but it has now risen to 5.9/4.9 with a wind chill of 1.0 but with my weather station underestimating wind speeds it probably it should probably feel colder. Pressure is 962.7hPa

Edited January 16, 2015 by GrangemouthBairn

[NorthernRab]

Looks as if we are in for a cold spell over the weekend and into next week.    We may even see some of the white stuff here in Aberdeen !!

This spell, which is looking likely being potentially prolonged, is going to involve cold air pushing right across the country from the north and east. I'd say that you WILL see snow, not might.

[lorenzo]

Yeah, imby post guv, I confess, because to be honest I don't give a flying one whether it's snowy in Edinburgh or Perth any more than Manchester or Swindon (with apologies to residents of all thos elovely places).

 

I'd say the northern Highlands will get another covering over this weekend largely to make up for what's just been washed away, but beyond that, I'd say it's a bit doubtful. Easterlies are a waste of time for here, as was shown last winter and the one before.

 

Gimme a northerly every time!

 

This post from Phil should provide some cheer HC..

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82281-model-output-discussion-14th-jan-12z-onwards/page-28?p=3120190#entry3120190

 

UKMO looking good this evening, over to the ECM to see if it can reel out a 'that ECM' and deliver a bone chilling det run similar to the control.

[JoeShmoe]

That ECM t+72 chart looks great for here ! (Can't post as on phone)

[lorenzo]

There you go..

 

 

Funny looking thing on the 96 too???

 

ECM toppler tonight, looks a mess of shortwaves and not a very clean solution vs the other models at 120. Look forward to seeing where it lives in the ENS.

 

More ying yang with mood on easterlies than anything else on the forum, they really should carry a health warning.

[Hairy Celt]

Biblical rain just now, if this carries on I might need a kayak to get to the pub! Edit: ok, heading your way, NL, get under cover! Over an inch an hour at this rate...

 

Agreed Lorenzo, easterlies are a divisive bunch. Love them or hate them, they're useless for here cos the big hills take all the ppn.

 

Kalahari Surfers anyone?

Edited January 15, 2015 by Hairy Celt

[Hawesy]

Biblical rain just now, if this carries on I might need a kayak to get to the pub! Edit: ok, heading your way, NL, get under cover! Over an inch an hour at this rate...

 

Agreed Lorenzo, easterlies are a divisive bunch. Love them or hate them, they're useless for here cos the big hills take all the ppn.

 

Kalahari Surfers anyone?

I despise easterlies myself HC (especially south-easterlies): 10c in summer, 4c in winter, miserable damp cold and grey year round!

North easterlies are fine though, I'll take one of those, a slack flow and -10c uppers please. ;-)

More interesting model runs this evening!

[Northernlights]

Biblical rain just now, if this carries on I might need a kayak to get to the pub! Edit: ok, heading your way, NL, get under cover! Over an inch an hour at this rate...

 

Agreed Lorenzo, easterlies are a divisive bunch. Love them or hate them, they're useless for here cos the big hills take all the ppn.

 

Kalahari Surfers anyone?

Yes its arrived .Water pouring across all the roads and ditches full this evening. I am just desperate for a dry frosty spell. Currently 3.1c so high ground must be getting some snowfall. Cawdor hills to the SW of us looked awesome in one of the rare breaks this afternoon.

[grifter]

Getting a feeling in my bones that the next week is going to be Easterly dominated - going by chatter about the place - so will us Westies be loosing out this time? Come to think of it that other night was hellish getting home, maybe not tempt fate!

[Ravelin]

That "biblical rain" has made it here too now and very blustery with it so looks wild out. I'll swear there's an element of sleet in it, but just barely, despite a current temp of 4.7/1.6C.

[scottishandy]

For the winter rubber (wubba) lovers out there -

 

http://scairngormsblog.sais.gov.uk/2015/01/a-wild-winters-day/

[Cheggers]

Some serious gust still blowing, really picked up in last 30 min

[edo]

Interesting looking trough down the east...Sunday not without interest for some and potentially developing into something quite tasty....

Some ice days next week as well so desperate for a decent covering asap to help lower the temps and get the sledge run operational for a decent length of time

[November13]

A lot of snow now appearing on the Highland traffic cameras. Might get something tonight!

[edo]

A lot of snow now appearing on the Highland traffic cameras. Might get something tonight!

Yup dying off just now in the hills before reaching south but someplaces should be getting decent dump

[lorenzo]

Now that's a northerly !

 

 

 

 

[Sawel]

I'm a little disappointed with the output today, mainly the easterly for next week which has sunk south and is looking less potent. The next few days will see some areas in Scotland get a decent fall but after that, those south of the border look to be in prime position for fronts and lows.

However, tomorrow is a new day...

[edo]

I'm a little disappointed with the output today, mainly the easterly for next week which has sunk south and is looking less potent. The next few days will see some areas in Scotland get a decent fall but after that, those south of the border look to be in prime position for fronts and lows.

However, tomorrow is a new day...

Its back on the 18z

Not too shabby given the surface cold we will have at this point so hawesy excepted this would deliver for many and Sunday night has good potential for Dundee...wrists were being slit 3 hrs ago in Mt and now all is well so take little notice....watch the cold arrive watch the faxes and wait for LS Lorenzo etc etc to eloquently explain the potential scenarios

[November13]

I tend to only look 2 days ahead now. The charts can and are often wrong. Probably be a different output tomorrow. Just hope I wake up to at least a dusting and a busy radar.

[edo]

Now that's a northerly !

viewimage.png

Boom as they like to say.....HC must like that

[Hawesy]

Not too shabby given the surface cold we will have at this point so hawesy excepted this would deliver for many and Sunday night has good potential for Dundee...wrists were being slit 3 hrs ago in Mt and now all is well so take little notice....watch the cold arrive watch the faxes and wait for LS Lorenzo etc etc to eloquently explain the potential scenarios

I'll be down in deepest Lancashire this weekend...at a fair altitude. As Catch said earlier there's bound to be some snow in Crail while I'm away. ;-)

You're quite right though, no point in worrying over the details, we've got a very interesting 5 days (at least) coming up. In the short term very cold tomorrow: GFS has 515 dam and -9c 850s for here at Noon tomorrow. Will be dry and sunny, of course!

[Sawel]

Yeah the model thread is poor today with all the IMBY posts.

Essex this, Sussex that...

It'll snow on the road signs on the M4 but rain on the road itself.

PFFFTTTTT and goodnight.

[Bullseye]

Posted similar is MT thread, that (might just be me) sliders are no good for us up here especially the one March 2012? When wales got quite alot of snow lets just say ha!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Alright, sorry for my absence, had a hellish Quantum Mechanics hand in to do for today (is there any other type?) and pipe band this evening.

Anyway, we're still on for some snow tomorrow, although it'll most likely be evening before anything too significant makes its way into central areas:

 

A good few hours of potential snowfall particularly for western areas. It's mostly in the form of showers, but more organised stuff possible by Saturday morning looking at the FAX chart:

NMM definitely hinting at something decent for tomorrow evening too, showers generally wintry through the day too but more heavy looking by night: 

Some of the rain/snow boundaries look a bit unrealistic as ever (I can't see random inland areas at decent altitude seeing rain while it's snowing down to the Forth for example) so worth looking at the actual parameters to see what they're like. NMM looks good, maxima tomorrow no more than 3-4C at absolute most but 1-2C in many areas, then temperatures sit around 1C for the central belt but a severe frost possible for the northeast, so that looks fine:

 

 

DPs looks perhaps a bit high technically at points (although the NMM does tend to overdo these slightly), particularly by Saturday morning but you'd imagine snow would settle in heavier showers anyway - it may be an issue as far as longevity of cover through Saturday goes though:

However, worth pointing out that the GFS only sees DPs peaking around -2C before heading back down again by Saturday afternoon:

(in practice you won't see DPs that low if it's snowing at temperatures above 0C but it will mean that lying snow most likely won't melt during dry periods)

 

So any sign of any sneaky 900-950hpa warm sectors? Both GFS and NAE say probably not, although overnight there's a slightly dicey period for the west:

 

So it looks like most of what falls tomorrow again will be snow as it was on Tuesday. Different areas favoured this time, with a greater chance for the Borders and Lothians to get in on the act in a big way. As a very rough rule of thumb this is your maximum extra snow depth by time Saturday:

I doubt it'll be that much given that Saturday morning's stuff may not lie so well but if you can get some cover by Friday night (and I think there could well be some even to below 100m across the central belt) then that should hopefully keep air temperatures low enough for Saturday morning to work out for you. Least likely to see much is Fife, Dundee and Angus, and Catch might have his work cut out for him too, but the showers are modelled to get through fairly well so I wouldn't rule anything out there either.

 

Into Sunday and there's another shot at some snow via this occlusion:

 

 

 

it depends how slow moving it is, if there's much of a warm sector aloft associated with it and if we can get a decent frost in place beforehand but it's definitely worth watching and could deliver a few inches quite widely if it works out. FWIW this is what the GFS has for when it moves over:

That'd definitely do, although a bit dicey for the NE (not sure if this GFS has a tendency to overdo coastal modification but I'd still suggest the onshore breeze might be a factor). The best setup would be the ECM - shades of 23rd December 2009 with that shallow low dragging snow down the east coast:

 

Nominally Monday looks drier, but I'm not entirely convinced by that - you could easily see something develop in the slight col that develops in front of the slider low:

That thing floating just to the north of us for example might be minded to pay us a visit:

Either way, decidedly cold, an ice day for many:

This by 6pm:

and then we have this:

Now there's a lot of uncertainty around this and subsequent developments, particularly RE how far south the low gets, how long and cold the easterly flow that follows is and whether the poor folks on the M4 can ever conclusively know whether it's going to snow or rain, but if the above chart did come off as modelled, with a slack southerly surface flow and an Atlantic occlusion, then we (even Hawesy, although that's only because he'll be in Lancashire) would be digging ourselves out by Wednesday morning. The issue is then what comes after - the likelihood is an easterly, but the problem is that, if the low disrupts enough to bring in an easterly but not properly drag enough cold air west, we end up in a horrific east coast slush fest, at least for a few hours. The UKMO, with its slow progression and potential phasing of the real cold air out in Siberia with our trough longer term, would almost certainly avoid that: