Scotland - Weather Chat

[snowidea]

Well every time I look at the MO forecast for Falkirk. It's changed. One minute we're getting heavy snow then next time I look it's sleet. It's very frustrating as I work in Edinburgh and hate driving in the snow (I'm Cornish so don't exactly have a lot of snow experience) and am still traumatised from my M9 experience in 2010 I'm hoping it snows so heavily I can't get the car out then I can just enjoy it.

[doctormog]

What are the black lines with the triangles and the half circles if you don't mind me asking? I think I vaguely remember we done something like this in geography but you can tell I wasn't paying attention! Would I be right in saying I also see (+) or similar symbols between the upward pointing semi-circles at bottom left dark line?

The triangles on the line indicate a cold front, the semicircles indicate a warm front. The plus symbols on the line indicate a developing weather front. And yes the semicircles and triangles indicate an occluded front.

Looking at the charts it looks good later on tomorrow into Thursday for the west and northwest but generally more sheltered here...yet again. Beyond then it looks milder but still cool with hill snow until into the weekend where some form of cold northerly looks probable.

Edited January 27, 2015 by doctormog

[snowy owl]

At least there's some pink in the East Lothian area this time. We'll see how much appears .

Lamppost area - East Lothian reporting for duty!

Edited January 27, 2015 by snowy owl

[edo]

Have to say, this is worth a medium-sized rampette at least surely!!

Yup and I think this is....only seems to be upgrading each run...this looks like the precipitation travelling across the country more readily than would normally be the case....perhaps to do with the difference in heights Ls was mentioning

[LomondSnowstorm]

I have to say that, across the board today, this looks like the real deal. I've seen the NMM predict DPs around 1-2C around the east coast and still have us seeing decent snow, well this time the NMM has sub 0C pretty much continuously from 1pm away from the immediate west coast (even there the sub 0C DPs push in by evening):

This is accompanied by the first band pushing across the country west to east, pushing air temperatures down from around 3-4C at midday to 1-2C by 3pm:

A real possibility of thundersnow with this first band as well: 

More snow showers pushing through overnight, particularly into the central belt, although there are a few more northern bands too, including one tracking through towards Tayside and another getting towards Inverness, along with the Borders and Dumfries and Galloway:

If the MO models are still showing the same thing as they were yesterday then there'll probably be an amber warning given that the current yellow is a 'high impact, low certainty' warning and the fact that 5-10cm to low levels usually triggers a warning. 

Edited January 27, 2015 by LomondSnowstorm

[Hairy Celt]

Bearing in mind that those ppn charts on NMM4 are indicative - ie means showers in general. I tracked its accuracy last time it did this and it's misleading by suggesting that it knows, hour by hour and 10km by 10km square, exactly where the most intense ppn, even ppn type is going to be.  Probably it's best used in conjunction with the 'standard' resolution ppn maps to get a feel of local and temporal variation. Perhaps...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30972743  Kind of ties in with reality - less bunching of cars jockeying to get past lorries etc., fewer accidents, fewer injuries, and for me, less stressful journeys. I no longer lose sleep the night before I'm due to travel south.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Hairy Celt

[aggy]

Not getting excited ! Reverse psychology it's just going to rain !!!!! Lol

[edo]

Well LS i was getting excited but this met update leads me to be less so.....obviously if i lived in the west it would encourage me

 

After pleasant respite from troublesome weather over the last few days, we’re expecting a return to colder and wintry conditions midweek. We issued a Yellow Alert of Snow yesterday for much of Scotland for Wednesday and Thursday, and this has been updated again this morning.

 

In the more immediate timeframe, we’re not expecting anything disruptive  through the rest of today (Monday) and Tuesday but as we head into Wednesday, we’ll see a return to colder conditions with showers spreading in from the northwest initially, but spreading to all parts of Scotland through the day on northwesterly gale force winds. Over the course of Wednesday and Thursday, in areas affected by repeated snow showers (more likely in the western half of the country) around 5-10cm of snow could accumulate to relatively low levels, with more than 10cm expected over higher ground. The strong winds, while not troublesome on their own, will give some very unpleasant conditions in the snow showers.

 

As mentioned above, the Yellow (Be Aware) Alert of Snow has already been updated this morning. It is now based on a low likelihood of medium impacts (though medium impacts more likely in the west than the east) and runs from 0900 on Wednesday morning though to the end of Thursday. It now also covers the whole of Scotland. We’ll be updating this over the next few days.

 

After Thursday, it looks to remain cold into the weekend, with the potential for more snow showers at times.

 

EDIT just realised that was yesterday at midday in my email box (been a bit busy) so you could be right LS.... i will update later with the hopefully upgraded update

Edited January 27, 2015 by edodfc

[November13]

Well every time I look at the MO forecast for Falkirk. It's changed. One minute we're getting heavy snow then next time I look it's sleet. It's very frustrating as I work in Edinburgh and hate driving in the snow (I'm Cornish so don't exactly have a lot of snow experience) and am still traumatised from my M9 experience in 2010 I'm hoping it snows so heavily I can't get the car out then I can just enjoy it.

Snow Idea. I wouldn't worry about the Falkirk sleet thing. The weather station they use is Grangemouth 30ft above see level! You are up in the braes where I am, at altitude 400ft plus. I never worry about what they say will happen in Falkirk, as far as I am concerned it's a sea level town and we are completely different in the wee towns higher up. Anywhere above Polmont will get snow.

[GrangemouthBairn]

Snow Idea. I wouldn't worry about the Falkirk sleet thing. The weather station they use is Grangemouth 30ft above see level! You are up in the braes where I am, at altitude 400ft plus. I never worry about what they say will happen in Falkirk, as far as I am concerned it's a sea level town and we are completely different in the wee towns higher up. Anywhere above Polmont will get snow.

Well that's just dampened my mood a little bit haha. Hopefully snow should fall to sea level on Wednesday and Thursday

[Norrance]

Very mixed messages coming through from the forecasters and amateurs for this one. Difficult to tell from the models what the impact will be especially for localised areas. I have a meeting tomorrow in Glasgow and someone from my work has to get to Edinburgh on Thursday, another person Lanark on Friday and probably me to Inverness by month end which means either Thurs or Friday. It would be handy to get a bit more reliable information.

Fair here this morning and feeling quite mild at 5C 

[November13]

Sorry Bairn...you will live near the Forth! LOL

[Kayemill]

I always feel I've missed a business opportunity in these situations!

 

" Get your F5 keys, four for £1 "

[NUT]

It's actually so hard to believe that the mothership of snow is seemingly coming if you looked at today's weather. It's mildish cloudy (although skies trying to brighten up) Was going to stay calm about tomorrow's prospects but LS's post wet my appetite big time!

[Dave3]

Very mixed messages coming through from the forecasters and amateurs for this one. Difficult to tell from the models what the impact will be especially for localised areas. I have a meeting tomorrow in Glasgow and someone from my work has to get to Edinburgh on Thursday, another person Lanark on Friday and probably me to Inverness by month end which means either Thurs or Friday. It would be handy to get a bit more reliable information.

Fair here this morning and feeling quite mild at 5C 

Yes, looking at BBC / Met Office forecasts (as opposed to warnings) I can't see anything other than standard February fare.  Snow, maybe, sleet, probably, maybe rain, not savagely cold, maybe frosty at night. 

 

dive3

[Snowlover2]

Are they in the process of upgrading warnings I wonder? My area forecast on met-o app has changed in the last 30 mins. It did say 9am- heavy rain with the snow to arrive 1pmish but that has since changed to 9am- heavy snow.

[grifter]

Will check forecast tomorrow and then decide to ditch car or not and take train to work - not trying to drive up hill in that again!

[Guest]

I think if I lived anywhere from about Livingston (roughly) westwards I'd be very excited about tomorrow and Thursday. Some places will miss out but others are going to get a proper pasting. Euro4 looks very good for some very intense shower activity

[GraemeB]

Warning Updated.

 

Time to ramp is almost upon us.

 

Showers are expected to turn to snow across parts of northern Scotland during Wednesday morning, the risk then transferring to other areas through the rest of the day, continuing overnight and for much of Thursday.

Across Northern England 3-8 cm could accumulate by Thursday morning, especially over high ground. Over Scotland and Northern Ireland 5-10 cm may fall even at some lower levels, with more than 15 cm possible over higher ground. Strong, gusty winds will lead to drifting and temporary blizzards over high ground, while icy surfaces and lightning pose additional risks in some areas.

This is an update to extend the warning a little further south across the Pennines. Note also that there is some signal that more frequent snow showers may affect parts of southern and central Scotland through the evening peak travel period on Wednesday, and this may lead to eventual issue of an Amber warning.

 

[Ravelin]

Staying totally unexcited here as there's still nothing I can see to make me feel I'll see anything special. In the meantime it's another dry day with relatively light winds and broken light cloud cover. Temperature in Dyce has shot up to a balmy 8.9C according to the local weather station data.

[GrangemouthBairn]

Latest BBC website forecast for here says that the snow will turn sleety at low levels from Thursday morning then to rain on Friday. A bit surprised as I thought Thursday would be okay for it to stay as snow. I'd imagine there is still a bit of uncertainty though because each model run is still showing mild sectors in slightly different places. It probably will be rain on Friday though for most of the UK on low ground

Edited January 27, 2015 by GrangemouthBairn

[Polar Side]

I think if I lived anywhere from about Livingston (roughly) westwards I'd be very excited about tomorrow and Thursday. Some places will miss out but others are going to get a proper pasting. Euro4 looks very good for some very intense shower activity [/quote

Hi Cmd, did you read nick F 's post in the model thread this morning about conditions being ripe for polar low formation at the weekend ? you used to be on polar low lookout in past cold spells, so maybe a job for the weekend.... Fingers crossed !

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Yes, looking at BBC / Met Office forecasts (as opposed to warnings) I can't see anything other than standard February fare.  Snow, maybe, sleet, probably, maybe rain, not savagely cold, maybe frosty at night. 

 

dive3

I would go along with this. It's nice weather to have and everything, given that it doesn't always snow here, but the more moderate outlook on various websites I'm seeing makes me think this will be nothing spectacular.

Obviously hope the models being illustrated are on the button.

[November13]

Meto moved their warning back from 9am Wed to 8am Wed an extended to nprthern England. With regards to the sleet I am not seeing that on Thursday on the models. Looks like pretty dry on Thursday and maybe abot 4c on Friday with a few wintry showers snow at any decent elevation.

[Hawesy]

I think if I lived anywhere from about Livingston (roughly) westwards I'd be very excited about tomorrow and Thursday. Some places will miss out but others are going to get a proper pasting. Euro4 looks very good for some very intense shower activity

 

Yes, good assessment Catch. For the near the east coasties, from Michael and Ravelin through Norrance, myself, LS to Snowy Owl and you, I'd be very cautious - I'd suggest a covering to a couple of cms would be the most we could realistically expect. Some may do slightly better (my money would be on Dundee and the west Fife contingent) some may get nothing at all (that'll be me then)!

Edited January 27, 2015 by Hawesy