Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[NUT]

1 hour ago, Cheggers said:

After another wet day with some heavy rain this morning, was greeted with this early evening on route to Broadwood.

Pretty sure your pic just got featured on the half 10 national weather

[Polar Maritime]

Just stopped for a cuppa at Loch Lomond as on route to Fort William for the weekend ☺, light showers here with a few breaks in the cloud temp 8c on car thermometer.

 

Edited January 23, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[edo]

Watching fox news....places in NE America have 12 inches of snow and still 26 plus hours to go...some places going to have Up to 30 inches and be under 70 mph winds for many hours....so jealous 

[GraemeB]

Urgh, Urgh and thrice Urgh

This mornings charts make for horrific reading, unless you're a mildy and love the rain. 

Just horrendous.

[Ravelin]

14 minutes ago, GraemeB said:

Urgh, Urgh and thrice Urgh

This mornings charts make for horrific reading, unless you're a mildy and love the rain. 

Just horrendous.

Let's just hope what some of the people in the MOD thread say is right, that some of the best cold periods are preceeded by wet, stormy weather. Ian F also posted to say the Met Office models are indicating a mild first half of Feb but a change to weather from NW &  N from mid month. Living on hope and promises at the moment though, no doubt about that. 

[Big Innes Madori]

1 hour ago, edo said:

Watching fox news....places in NE America have 12 inches of snow and still 26 plus hours to go...some places going to have Up to 30 inches and be under 70 mph winds for many hours....so jealous 

Aye Edo and tae add insult tae injury, the same weather system will apparently be over the UK on Tuesday bringing typical Wet and Windy conditions!

It now also looks like it will be the second half February before we will have a chance of a return of winter?

Big Innes

 

[GraemeB]

As Rav says - I think they're clutching at straws, they've no more of a clue than the rest of us.

My LRF for mid-end Feb?

It'll either be cold, or, it won't.

Put money on it.

[edit] - MO have rain warning out to Tues/Wed already - they must be really worried.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1453766400&regionName=ta

Edited January 23, 2016 by GraemeB

[Cheggers]

12 hours ago, NUT said:

Pretty sure your pic just got featured on the half 10 national weather

Mmm will need to have a route round, was missus that took it just passed Old Inns.

[moffatross]

2 hours ago, edo said:

Watching fox news....places in NE America have 12 inches of snow and still 26 plus hours to go...some places going to have Up to 30 inches and be under 70 mph winds for many hours....so jealous 

Frankly. I've experienced enough 70 mph winds for hours to last a lifetime. I really enjoyed seeing one or two of the snowfalls we had last week falling gently and serenely, not horizontally and ferociously.

Edited January 23, 2016 by moffatross

[Hairy Celt]

56 minutes ago, moffatross said:

Frankly. I've experienced enough 70 mph winds for hours to last a lifetime. I really enjoyed seeing one or two of the snowfalls we had last week falling gently and serenely, not horizontally and ferociously.

Surely you would get a tincy bit excited if you were forecast tornadoes and blizzards though...?

Just mild, partly sunnny and pretty gusty this morning so far. The sun partly relieves the letdown.

Bipolar disorder in the MT thread I see....

Edited January 23, 2016 by Hairy Celt

[NUT]

1 hour ago, Cheggers said:

Mmm will need to have a route round, was missus that took it just passed Old Inns.

AHA! Having a closer look now the image featured last night had a bird in the image your's doesn't but looked pretty similair

[snowidea]

14 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Mud has returned on a showery day but frosted ground still in sheltered areas. Currently windy and 5.5c

Are they still singing "tiger feet"? 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, snowidea said:

Are they still singing "tiger feet"? 

That's right...

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon all! Raining and breezy again today, but thankfully not much rain came in last night, a little, but not nearly as bad as the night before. The week looks horrendous with more horizontal stuff heading our way. I really can't see the builder being able to get much work done on the roof this week.  Not a lot anyone can do about it I know, but just a couple of dry days would make a huge difference. We are still camping in the sitting room, praise be for sofa beds! I don't know what we would have done if we didn't have that to fall back on....literally!

[Northern Strath]

5 minutes ago, snowidea said:

Are they still singing "tiger feet"? 

That's neat  

A lofty 7c just now,  those random wee snow clumps that hang around like party goers who've well overstayed their welcome sit in sheltered areas of the garden. Larger snow patches visible only in corrie's where it drifted around 2000ft. Couple of very lonely snow symbols return for late Wednesday in the MO forecast, but it looks absolutely sod all to entertain and will probably disappear as the mildness continues 

Shame there is not snow for the Sled Dog racing at Feshiebridge but it's not the first time and at least it's not relentless wind and rain

[moffatross]

3 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Surely you would get a tincy bit excited if you were forecast tornadoes and blizzards though...?

Just mild, partly sunnny and pretty gusty this morning so far. The sun partly relieves the letdown.

Bipolar disorder in the MT thread I see....

Agreed. It wouldn't be so destructive as the same with rain.

Yep, just looked in the model output thread, and it's weird. It's like people are making assertions about what will come to be, but there's little dialogue or discussion, just black and white predictions of either doom/gloom or promise/hope.

Was up on Lowther Hill yesterday with Monsieur WinterHighland, trying to figure out what's happening with the webcams. We ran the engine to charge the cam batteries and made a bit of progress drying everything out. The snow that I skied a week or so ago down to the loch has been brutalised but there's still some good cover up high though if much of it survives the midweek rain I'd be surprised.

Edited January 23, 2016 by moffatross

[edo]

6 hours ago, Big Innes Madori said:

Aye Edo and tae add insult tae injury, the same weather system will apparently be over the UK on Tuesday bringing typical Wet and Windy conditions!

It now also looks like it will be the second half February before we will have a chance of a return of winter?

Big Innes

 

I thought as much....will console myself with watching some live streaming American news tonight and pretend it might still happen here again 1 day like that famous 30 hours pf snow in November 2010....so thaw from the hills and heavy rain...not a good sounding recipe

[Ravelin]

Not long back for a 1.5hr walk with the wife and dog in the local woods. It's actually not that unpleasant out there. No sun, around 8C, bit breezy. Didn't feel cold but didn't feel overly mild either, especially in the wind. There's still plenty of frozen ground around, and patches of ice where it's been thick and/or shaded. Mud too, usually sat on top of the frozen bits so not too deep. Enjoyed the walk, but I'd still rather it was cold and snowy.

[SW Saltire]

19 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

To be honest, with it this mild, I'd have thought you could go topless <swoons>

7C this evening, quite draughty too!

Oh... HC. You romantic, you

Needs to be >15c and sunny for tops off weather 

Back on topic: 

Currently 8.7c, a high of 9.4c.

Mild and grey but was sunny earlier this morning when i squeezed a round of golf in.

Cold, Where art thou?

[SW Saltire]

7 hours ago, Ravelin said:

Let's just hope what some of the people in the MOD thread say is right, that some of the best cold periods are preceeded by wet, stormy weather. Ian F also posted to say the Met Office models are indicating a mild first half of Feb but a change to weather from NW &  N from mid month. Living on hope and promises at the moment though, no doubt about that. 

I really feel the met office have improved so much.

They nail it now 95% of the time.

They called a SSW in February and have predicted a mid-late February cold spell for ages. 

Although, i think some of the best on here can rival them which is astoundingly impressive. However, if we are talking about general observations then i think the Met Office are very rarely wrong. We were never led to believe that they saw last week as anything more than a snap/short spell, ok they were predictably cautious and underplayed it slightly but hardly by much....

 

 

Second point: That short snap was very good here for snow (also good for Stirling and therefore a wide section on the country). Last winter we briefly had 6 inches of snow, 4 inches last Saturday. Embarrassingly that is better than December 2010 managed in TOTAL. Two separate 2 inch falls, only 3 inches at anyone time lying. 

 

I just want some snow and for it to last a bit longer than 2/3 days (thawing all the time)...

 

Which brings me on to the Late February cold spell....

March 2013 - 21/22nd had the largest fall of snow i've seen here (8 winters) and largest i remembered. We had far larger falls pre-2000 (i lived at 200m on the other side of the outskirts of the town so altitude helped), pictures show several feet but i was too young to remember. 

And in 2013 the snow only v slowly melted, given the sun's strength that was impressive.

So sure i'm not throwing the toys out of the pram.... But: 

You need 'real' cold by then to stop excessive melting. 

You need colder uppers for snowfall. 

Admittedly, i love the combination of a stronger sun and snow on the ground, feels Alpine. That needs 'very good' or even better synoptics....

 

So hence i'm underwhelmed by this 'late winter' we always seem to have. 

I know it's fairly 'normal'. Feb is colder than December statistically speaking. 

It's just frustrating. I'll refrain from fully venting via a diatribe on here but i really hope i won't be lamenting this fact come mid-late February...

The further north you are and with some height then the longer  you have, but buy mid-Feb the clock is ticking ever more loudly imo.

[moffatross]

100% agree with your observations about the Met Office being rarely wrong. I think they do a great job, but that's unsurprising  with the resources and staff at their disposal. Most of the rest of us have so little to go on that we can do little more than speculate on how the here and now will evolve based on what the various numerical model output says might happen. The long range forecasts in the weather forums, and the (usually sensationalist) seasonal speculation in the media are always hocus pocus, whatever the credentials of the people asserting them.

This note issued today for February is as ballsy as the Met Office get ...

"From mid month, there are signals that pressure may build in the mid Atlantic, bringing a more northerly flow to the UK, thus increasing the likelihood of colder conditions developing.

Edited January 23, 2016 by moffatross

[SW Saltire]

1 hour ago, moffatross said:

100% agree with your observations about the Met Office being rarely wrong. I think they do a great job, but that's unsurprising  with the resources and staff at their disposal. Most of the rest of us have so little to go on that we can do little more than speculate on how the here and now will evolve based on what the various numerical model output says might happen. The long range forecasts in the weather forums, and the (usually sensationalist) seasonal speculation in the media are always hocus pocus, whatever the credentials of the people asserting them.

This note issued today for February is as ballsy as the Met Office get ...

"From mid month, there are signals that pressure may build in the mid Atlantic, bringing a more northerly flow to the UK, thus increasing the likelihood of colder conditions developing.

Yes, i agree. 

Cold conditions are almost nailed on from mid-Feb. I'm that confident already given their REPEATED backing and so has GP and Tamara.

i think the Stratosphere thread is amazingly in depth, beating anything else available to the public and i reckon Chionomatic could work in the Met Office given his knowledge. I'd be surprised if there is even a handful of people in the met who know about the Stratosphere than him.

 

GP's musings (employed by a forecasting company no less) and Tamara's are given great credence by myself. It's just a view them in the context of the met office's general opinion and not the hype of the MOD thread.

 

Given the Met's backing then when the MOD rises from the ashes in the coming days (7-10 days at most, we will see good charts - prematurely perhaps - appearing) i will be paying real attention to it.

Only difference being i want 'real' cold and a significant block (given the sun strength) rather than a 'cool/cold' pattern which would deliver (lasting) snow in December but not with the daylight of February. 

Still... There IS time but the clocks already ticking. I felt some heat in the sun yesterday...

Late March 2013 proved many wrong but... How epic would that have been in January? 

Mid-Late Feb is still ok but by March i'm thinking 'what if...'

[Northernlights]

2 hours ago, SW Saltire said:

I really feel the met office have improved so much.

They nail it now 95% of the time.

They called a SSW in February and have predicted a mid-late February cold spell for ages. 

Although, i think some of the best on here can rival them which is astoundingly impressive. However, if we are talking about general observations then i think the Met Office are very rarely wrong. We were never led to believe that they saw last week as anything more than a snap/short spell, ok they were predictably cautious and underplayed it slightly but hardly by much....

 

 

Second point: That short snap was very good here for snow (also good for Stirling and therefore a wide section on the country). Last winter we briefly had 6 inches of snow, 4 inches last Saturday. Embarrassingly that is better than December 2010 managed in TOTAL. Two separate 2 inch falls, only 3 inches at anyone time lying. 

 

I just want some snow and for it to last a bit longer than 2/3 days (thawing all the time)...

 

Which brings me on to the Late February cold spell....

March 2013 - 21/22nd had the largest fall of snow i've seen here (8 winters) and largest i remembered. We had far larger falls pre-2000 (i lived at 200m on the other side of the outskirts of the town so altitude helped), pictures show several feet but i was too young to remember. 

And in 2013 the snow only v slowly melted, given the sun's strength that was impressive.

So sure i'm not throwing the toys out of the pram.... But: 

You need 'real' cold by then to stop excessive melting. 

You need colder uppers for snowfall. 

Admittedly, i love the combination of a stronger sun and snow on the ground, feels Alpine. That needs 'very good' or even better synoptics....

 

So hence i'm underwhelmed by this 'late winter' we always seem to have. 

I know it's fairly 'normal'. Feb is colder than December statistically speaking. 

It's just frustrating. I'll refrain from fully venting via a diatribe on here but i really hope i won't be lamenting this fact come mid-late February...

The further north you are and with some height then the longer  you have, but buy mid-Feb the clock is ticking ever more loudly imo.

Over the years March has always been a winter month for me up here as the frequency of North and East winds(Polar sourced) increases and sea temperatures are at their lowest. The grass in the fields is often brown by now with winter frost and soil temperatures are low.  Not saying it will be cold but a lot of the ingredients  for cold are there. which are not present in the early  part of winter.

[Hairy Celt]

Another theme that NL will recognise is how all the seasons, not just winter, have been getting delayed over the last few years, giving a very slow start to the growing season and then sometimes a late extra burst of warmth to help ripen crops and keep the grass growing...  If I was a farmer, I'd be very keen on serious amounts of research on climate change just now.

[SW Saltire]

1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

Over the years March has always been a winter month for me up here as the frequency of North and East winds(Polar sourced) increases and sea temperatures are at their lowest. The grass in the fields is often brown by now with winter frost and soil temperatures are low.  Not saying it will be cold but a lot of the ingredients  for cold are there. which are not present in the early  part of winter.

Nah, fair enough.

Your northerly location helps too. Mainly 'vulnerability' to N and NE winds as you stated, less significantly slightly weaker sun. 

However, i've not had 'lasting' snow in mid-late February and beyond (excluding 2013 and that was exceptional) in recent years...

Maybe you have faired better.

I suppose i rely on 'sliders' as opposed to snow showers. 

We shall see.... All i'm saying is for lying snow i think now is prime time whereas mid-late Feb the clock is ticking. Without -10 uppers and below in March i foresee reasonable melt happening (without cold being fairly entrenched at the surface).

So yes, it could deliver but the bar is being raised ever higher as the days pass is all i'm saying. 

I'm hoping it is mid-month (still fine) as opposed to late month when we'll be approaching March and that will significantly hinder the longevity and potency of any cold spell