Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[RebsAbbo]

1 hour ago, sorepaw1 said:

Morning all, just had a moderate sleet & hail shower here. With any more showers moving in this afternoon,  I'll try and get some pics before dark.

We had some brief hail when on this morning’s dog walk. Blink & you missed it tho

[Just Before Dawn]

21 hours ago, mike57 said:

I wonder if we will see snow at the coast. Sea Surface Temp is still at around 10c this may be a bit to high to allow snow here. Having said that December 2010 was deepest snow here over the 16 years we have lived here, it just kept piling up. I wonder what SST was at the start of Dec 2010

I can't tell you the actual SST but according to the NCDC the SSTs for the seas around the UK in December 2010 were colder than the 1971-2000 December average.

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by Just Before Dawn

[NorthYorksWeather]

On 03/12/2022 at 20:16, mike57 said:

I wonder if we will see snow at the coast. Sea Surface Temp is still at around 10c this may be a bit to high to allow snow here. Having said that December 2010 was deepest snow here over the 16 years we have lived here, it just kept piling up. I wonder what SST was at the start of Dec 2010

Think I saw a chart posted area showing late Nov 2010 has north sea temps of around 8-9c so marginally colder than now.

An interesting week coming up, not looking like much snow depth wise but a few places could see a covering plus some low overnight minimas, especially where we have snowcover.

All my weather stations are poised and ready to record some low temps, hopefully this thread is nice and busy come end of the week. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Looking like a cracking cold spell coming up.  Wednesday onwards looks like being when the real fun and games start.

Not too much snow forecast across the region at present but provided the cold becomes entrenched the chances of snow will only increase.

Some hard frosts and ice days are also a possibility if the winds stay light and skies stay clear.

A great start to Winter and a festive feel to the run up to Christmas!   

[cheese]

Coldest forecast since 2018.

 

[Snowing offshore]

Whist artic air doesn't arrive for a couple of days it's a bit milder here than I would like ( currently 7.5 degrees). Bit worried that highish SSTs will mean marginal conditions near the coast. However, I'm sure we will be seeing big shower clouds over the sea from late Weds onwards.  Just hope there are some disturbances in the flow or an easterly component at some stage to get the showers to come inland. A good part of Lincolnshire doesnt stick out enough if there is a westerly element to the flow. The positive thing is that there have been a lot of heavy showers over the past couple of days (uppers not cold but flow has been off the sea) so with cold uppers and low thicknesses maybe it won't be particularly dry. Overall very interesting and quite hopeful

[Empire Of Snow]

2 hours ago, Snowing offshore said:

Whist artic air doesn't arrive for a couple of days it's a bit milder here than I would like ( currently 7.5 degrees). Bit worried that highish SSTs will mean marginal conditions near the coast. However, I'm sure we will be seeing big shower clouds over the sea from late Weds onwards.  Just hope there are some disturbances in the flow or an easterly component at some stage to get the showers to come inland. A good part of Lincolnshire doesnt stick out enough if there is a westerly element to the flow. The positive thing is that there have been a lot of heavy showers over the past couple of days (uppers not cold but flow has been off the sea) so with cold uppers and low thicknesses maybe it won't be particularly dry. Overall very interesting and quite hopeful

I've spent a lot of hours looking at current charts, runs, potential fronts/troughs etc and I have a terrible headache. This country is a meteo nightmare when it comes to snow precipitation. 

As it stands I've decided to expect just a dry very cold spell until Sunday. If any ppn comes in it will be a bonus surprise for me. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Sat here in the Southern Pennines, no matter which coast showers come from, I don't think we'll see more than a flutter or two?

North York Moors?......good luck guys!!!

[Tim A]

1 hour ago, Empire Of Snow said:

I've spent a lot of hours looking at current charts, runs, potential fronts/troughs etc and I have a terrible headache. This country is a meteo nightmare when it comes to snow precipitation. 

As it stands I've decided to expect just a dry very cold spell until Sunday. If any ppn comes in it will be a bonus surprise for me. 

It is always a worry that we will see very little in the middle of the country in such a set-up with a low over us. 

Dec 2010 (second half) - Spot the green area:

 

 

January 2004 - Thundersnow event completely missed here , it broke up and reformed.  Can't find the satellite image anymore but it is almost comical being one of the only areas of green. I mention that event, as it was a front from the North,  there is also a possible front from the North on Thursday.  They often break up .    But not always, Nov 28th last year was a stunner.   

Will be lots of Nowcasting. 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Tim A

[mike57]

Today brought force 4-5 NE winds, temperature at 7C and sunny intervals. Looks like Thursday and Friday could be the snow days here. The only think that will stop it will be the warm SSTs.

Thundersnow would be nice, we are quite favourably placed for it here, In the 16+ years we have lived here we have had a few events, in my previously nearly 50 years I had only witnessed it twice. One thing I have noticed is that it frequently doesn't show up on the lightning detectors, can anyone explain why?

[Light Without Heat]

Just hope we don't get the famous northerly Xmas tree. And you sit and watch it all getting binned into the sea! Defo need a NE or full blown easterly component. Pity what we've had for the last few days wasn't this weekend as that would have been game on. 

[The PIT]

Well GFS still keen on a snow event Thursday morning. Nobody else wants to know so we shall see nearer the time.

[SouthYorks]

Several mentions of higher than normal SST above, but I saw a post in the Mod thread earlier which showed there has been a marked lowering of these in the last week in most areas other than the English Channel, and as a result are back down to average in most areas of the North Sea.

Temps maxed out at 6.1 in Barnsley early this afternoon but are heading back down again now.

My take is that other than a brief chance of snow from the front passing through on Thursday morning I’m going for mainly dry and cold for us in inland areas.  It’s looking like we will see some severe frosts and hopefully there will be an increasing chance of snow if the winds shift round giving more of a North Easterly or Easterly.  We don’t tend to do too well with a straight Northerly.

It’s certainly a good start to winter, and far better than the last few, just hope we get a few decent chances of snow in the run up to and through Christmas.

Edited December 5, 2022 by SouthYorks

[mat43]

Hi. Long time lurker, but only just joined for posting. Yes, this link was posted earlier today which shows a marked recent drop in SSTs. 

United Kingdom Sea Temperatures | Water Temperature in United Kingdom

SEATEMPERATURES.NET

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Find the current and historical sea temperature for 615 locations in United Kingdom.

E.g. for Bridlington, it’s now down to 9.56° rather than the average 9.54°. 

Bridlington Sea Temperature | Water Temperature in Bridlington, United Kingdom

SEATEMPERATURES.NET

---

Find the current and historical sea temperatures for Bridlington in United Kingdom.

 

[Beverley Lass]

Hi and welcome here Mat43  

[Winter Cold]

Welcome Mat43

Hopefully some fun and games to post about over the next few weeks!

It's looking very cold and I'm sure some snow chances will pop up

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, Tim A said:

It is always a worry that we will see very little in the middle of the country in such a set-up with a low over us. 

Dec 2010 (second half) - Spot the green area:

 

 

January 2004 - Thundersnow event completely missed here , it broke up and reformed.  Can't find the satellite image anymore but it is almost comical being one of the only areas of green. I mention that event, as it was a front from the North,  there is also a possible front from the North on Thursday.  They often break up .    But not always, Nov 28th last year was a stunner.   

Will be lots of Nowcasting. 

This is unlucky. I was in BD11 at the time and I definitely had snow for two days around the 16th/17th in 2010 and cover on the ground for 25 days from Nov 24th. Likewise although I was in school, im fairly sure we caught snow in Jan 04 as that was when I was starting to view the BBC forum.

 

Edited December 5, 2022 by summer blizzard

[Tim A]

11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

This is unlucky. I was in BD11 at the time and I definitely had snow for two days around the 16th/17th in 2010 and cover on the ground for 25 days from Nov 24th. Likewise although I was in school, im fairly sure we caught snow in Jan 04 as that was when I was starting to view the BBC forum.

 

Nov 10 and Start of Dec 10 was awesome but most of that melted in the very brief mild spell.

The second spell was mostly cold and dry. You are right there was some snow before Christmas, it affected the NW mostly one evening and got as far NE as around Horsforth . I was in Idle and there was 3cm but nothing in Cookridge or North Leeds or places East of there ( as per photo) .

[Cold Winter]

Hi everyone, been a little while since I’ve posted in here (the July heatwave I think). Excited for the what the end of the week has in store. Looks like very cold conditions, especially by night.

I’ll be interested to know what falls out of the sky from any showers at lower levels near the coast come Thursday/Friday. I think there will be showers - models often under-estimate this although the wind direction means it looks like they will be mostly coastal. However T850s have moderated a bit over the last couple of days and I’m not sure will be good enough for lower levels along the coast. As usual - the Moors and Wolds will probably be best, plus anyone further inland if the feature running north to south verifies on Thursday. Freezing rain would seem a distinct possibility to me, particularly along the coast.

Whatever happens, it’s a good start to winter and nice for it to feel very seasonal in the run-up to Christmas!

[Jeremy Shockey]

This looks very promising for Thursday early morning for our region !

[SouthYorks]

Welcome to the best regional forum @mat43.

And just in time for the coldest weather, the gas central heating boiler conks out!  
Just glad we have a log burner in the lounge but it’s already decidedly chilly elsewhere in the house!  Hopefully can get an engineer before Wednesday, but that is no doubt a long shot!

Edited December 5, 2022 by SouthYorks

[Wold Topper]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

This looks very promising for Thursday early morning for our region !

Fingers crossed, but some people could wake up to a pleasant supprise Thurs morning, the potential is there...

[Methuselah]

Just now, Wold Topper said:

Fingers crossed, but some people could wake up to a pleasant supprise Thurs morning, the potential is there...

Same here; fingers crossed -- I think most of us living in the East are in a similar position?

[Wold Topper]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Same here; fingers crossed -- I think most of us living in the East are in a similar position?

As there is much talk of a 'wish bone' effect Thurs as the cold front moves down, being towards the coast maybe advantageous?

[sorepaw1]

7 hours ago, mike57 said:

Today brought force 4-5 NE winds, temperature at 7C and sunny intervals. Looks like Thursday and Friday could be the snow days here. The only think that will stop it will be the warm SSTs.

Thundersnow would be nice, we are quite favourably placed for it here, In the 16+ years we have lived here we have had a few events, in my previously nearly 50 years I had only witnessed it twice. One thing I have noticed is that it frequently doesn't show up on the lightning detectors, can anyone explain why?

I saw a BBC Forecast mentioning thunder and hail and snow.

You might get lucky Mike so close to the coast.