Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[IDO]

Crazy how such small differences makes such a change by d8:

Guess which is the 12z?

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

That would deliver the biggest snowfall since Feb 1991 down here. We only got a couple of inches in 2010 and from the 2018 episode. Looks too good to be true. Still very high risk with the milder air very close to the SE so time will tell. I’ve seen worse at days 5 and 6 though 

North Essex did better in 2010, but Essex hasn't seen proper deep snow (30cm plus) since Feb 1991.

The mild boundary is a bit close for comfort, but it could give us a huge dumping!

Edited February 1, 2021 by Djdazzle

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Crazy how such small differences makes such a change by d8:

Guess which is the 12z?

The correct one

[Gustywind]

Will this become ‘That GFS’ run?

[Light Without Heat]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just WOW!

Worth adding the wind gusts chart to that!!!

T162:

Wow - that is going straight through you .....

[That ECM]

Remember, when the downgrades start they don’t stop.

[frosty ground]

Mild sector sinking south don't blink becasue you will miss it.

Also for the suffering members of the Northwest costal region, the following output will be right up your street.

 

[Geordiesnow]

I think a little caution is needed as the details will very much change but the easterly trend is continuing and the further north and east you are, the higher chance of tapping into the colder air.

The phasing of the low is so nerve shredding because if it goes wrong, we could be looking at a less cold outcome(but still cold for some) but you see the runs for yourselves when it does go to plan. 

I am getting more confident an easterly will occur but how quickly will that cold air arrive, depth of cold and how far south the cold gets is all big questions still. 

[nick sussex]

Two good things happened on the GFS 12 hrs run . 

The high aligned more favourably which in turn meant the low over Iberia tracked more favourably. 

You can see the huge change in 850 values between this run and the earlier one .

Its these relatively small changes on a global scale which can make such a difference .

[EML Network]

GFS 12Z Mean for T+96 looks good to me, tbh that's about as far out as we can go for now, it looks very much like the GFS has simply continued on the same theme is has been churning out for days on end now, bar the 06z from this morning. 

going through the various runs at T96 though there are still a fair few runs that have the low filling up and stalling over the north of the UK and I think it's going to be another 24 hours until we can really know how that low is going to interact.

BUT it is very good news to see both the GFS OP and UKMO in broad agreement over the placing of the low at T+120

and the control run of the GFS looks to be headed in the same direction, a big step in the right direction for a countrywide snow event. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by EML Network

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Not quite. Check out West Lancashire / the Fylde coast. Easterlies poor for here. Glad everyone else will get snow. 

Should be fun to see how this unfolds. 

A day later and the gaps are filled

[Continental Climate]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS and UKMO T144, GFS spectacular!

UKMO still pretty good.

Think I prefer the ukmo if you look at the Eastern seaboard there is no huge purple polar vortex. It's actually quite warm over there on the ukmo. 

[ICE COLD]

UKMO uppers finally uploaded

[Ice Day]

The 850's for the UKMO at 144 - superb!

Edit - @ICE COLDbeat me to it - again!!!!

Edited February 1, 2021 by Ice Day

[Speedbird]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

That would deliver the biggest snowfall since Feb 1991 down here. We only got a couple of inches in 2010 and from the 2018 episode. Looks too good to be true. Still very high risk with the milder air very close to the SE so time will tell. I’ve seen worse at days 5 and 6 though 

Depending on the longevity, that could outperform 1987 for snow depth

[radiohead]

UKMO 144

[goosey007]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Remember, when the downgrades start they don’t stop.

think theres just alot of model damaged folk on this forum to be fair ...years of carrot dangling only for it to be wipped away at the last .....

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO 850mb temps at 144, sensational. Looks like even colder to come by 168

[MJB]

Nice GFS run 

[Methuselah]

I take it all back, @BLAST FROM THE PAST... A winter on a par with some of the 20th Century's could indeed materialise!

    

Edited February 1, 2021 by General Cluster

[TSNWK]

this is 5 days into the cold snap if it plays out as the 12Z is saying... I doubt we would have seen the best of it if we get here 

Pure Filth! and NSW

 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Two good things happened on the GFS 12 hrs run . 

The high aligned more favourably which in turn meant the low over Iberia tracked more favourably. 

You can see the huge change in 850 values between this run and the earlier one .

Its these relatively small changes on a global scale which can make such a difference .

Not there yet are we? 48 hours and we should be?

[The Enforcer]

19 minutes ago, Notty said:

I hope this isnt an outlier ...

A mild outlier, perhaps?

[weirpig]

Snow fields  and those uppers  easily below minus ten at night       infact the gfs is showing  minus eight.   id take a good few degrees of that 

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Two good things happened on the GFS 12 hrs run . 

The high aligned more favourably which in turn meant the low over Iberia tracked more favourably. 

You can see the huge change in 850 values between this run and the earlier one .

Its these relatively small changes on a global scale which can make such a difference .

Exactly. Zoom out and the larger scale setup is not that much different from 6z. A couple of tweaks and it's miles better.