Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Matt H]

GFS 12z is burying most of the UK in snow next Monday. Insane run!

Edited February 1, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Yarmy]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

Day 6 UKMO

similar set up towards the south east as the GFS. So probably an area of snow moving out of the continent into southern and east parts.

With a slider dessert for the southwest.

 

[Djdazzle]

Great start to the 12z's!

Can ECM fully join the party after having its foot in the door for so long!

[IDO]

Subtle differences with upstream and downstream flows and we get the cold in quicker, and this is essential as the rebounding of the low is similar on the gfs 06z and 12z so snow rather than rain on the 12z:

06z>12z>

Helped by the low disrupting better on the jet to our west. Very fine margins! UKMO agrees so great, now ecm needs to move closer to this solution?

Edited February 1, 2021 by IDO

[Audaxian]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not sure if se have had much snow yet they’ll be for this.

Had some snow (the fat wet stuff) falling mixed in with rain in the last cold spell where I am (Uckfield). We were just a little too far south, I heard not far north of us got a decent covering.

 

1 minute ago, Southender said:

I'll take that and run please. Snow Porn for the snow starved EA/SE members.

Yup, me too!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

And a virtual UK wide snowstorm at 162 

Just WOW!

Worth adding the wind gusts chart to that!!!

T162:

[goosey007]

Boom Baby boom ...snow for the whole country again ! jff i know at this range but good to see non the less

 

[Drifter]

Don’t do it to yourself folks!  Good things never seem to come to us these days.
There’s no way we’d get lucky and have a run like that verify for the south east!

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS and UKMO T144, GFS spectacular!

UKMO still pretty good.

Many differences again. The Atlantic, the Arctic High, the American trough. Laughable actually.
What will happen after 144h still very much unclear.

But: Upgrades for cold an snow, for at least the weekend!

GFS is very snowy, UKMO has snow too.

[That ECM]

As great as the output has been with amazing charts, the best thing for me is both gfs and Ukmo deal with low in a favourable way.

[Notty]

Look North

[Riky91]

Better I save this run cos I think I will never see it again (sod law)

[Singularity]

From hardly cold with rain showers to a historic blizzard between the 06z and 12z GFS runs. Hilarious!

Interesting that UKMO has a similar low positioning at +144. Not dissimilar to its 00z actually but a bit stronger with the low.

Incidentally, if you compare the GFS 06z and UKMO 12z you can see just how much further north the former sent the continental cold air thrust.

  

Anyway, I know most of you will be far more interested in looking at this:

...but really, that should come with a health warning! So much has to come together just right. Or wrong, depending on your angle!

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Blooody fantastic 12zs!!!infact i would say close to dangerous!!!!❄

Big coat i reckon that...and a sizable shovel

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, Notty said:

I hope this isnt an outlier ...

Looks like a mild outlier.

[MJB]

132h to 174h Continuous snow for some parts crazy 

The LP hangs around bombarding the UK

 

 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Don’t do it to yourself folks!  Good things never seem to come to us these days.
There’s no way we’d get lucky and have a run like that verify for the south east!

Eventually, it will happen. Hoping it's this time, but still plenty of time for it to go wrong!

[weirpig]

Very nice to look at   most of the country buried  Midlands East between  twenty and thirty cm    

obviously the chart of the winter.    

[Spah1]

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

GFS 12z is burying the UK in snow next Monday. Insane run!

Not quite. Check out West Lancashire / the Fylde coast. Easterlies poor for here. Glad everyone else will get snow. 

Should be fun to see how this unfolds. 

[Jason M]

That would deliver the biggest snowfall since Feb 1991 down here. We only got a couple of inches in 2010 and from the 2018 episode. Looks too good to be true. Still very high risk with the milder air very close to the SE so time will tell. I’ve seen worse at days 5 and 6 though 

[Methuselah]

Thundersnow?       

[southbank]

was thinking as the low sinks with much colder air north of it and warmer air to the south- would the temp gradient between the two cause this low to develop more ?

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, MJB said:

Continuous snow in England 

And Scotland, Ireland and Wales

[sheikhy]

My god make the most of the next 3 days if cool weather is what you like cos we enter the freezer after that!!quite literally we are better of living in the north pole from friday❄

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Notty said:

Look North

 

4 minutes ago, Riky91 said:

Better I save this run cos I think I will never see it again (sod law)

We have seen this before, apologies folks but they've gone and accidentally reposted last night's pub run...

Edited February 1, 2021 by Griff