Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward

[Polar Maritime]

Hail shower passing here just now temp dropping now 4c

[MattStoke]

On 26/11/2021 at 14:02, Snowy L said:

Weather presenters on TV and the Met Office don't want to know. Mostly rain,.with the odd bit of sleet on low ground. Not much middle ground between them and the models which show accumulating snow for most.

I've lost count of the number of times I've heard from forecasters and ended up with heavy snow here at very modest elevation.

Second hail shower of the day rattling on through.

[Eskimo]

Just doing a bit of analysis on what the charts are suggesting. Based on the parameters that we have for the overnight period it really is marginal for most unless you get heavy bursts of precipitation. 

We had a very similar set up a few years ago in Birmingham - in the centre it was sleeting (~100m asl) and as you climbed up towards the higher regions further west (Quinton, Bearwood etc.) at around 200m, it was pasting it down and white everywhere. In fact, you can see the centre of the city up on Warley Hill (~250m) and it was grey/green down below - bizarre. 

If you live in the River valleys of Severn, Nene, Avon or Trent then your best bet is heavier bursts which may give temporary accumulations. Anywhere within the 'West Midlands Plateau', the Cotswolds (obviously) and up towards the foothills of the Peaks have the best chance as dew points/freezing levels are much lower. Anywhere east of Leicester, you'll be primarily be experiencing higher dew points due to north sea modification and just generally being on flatter land so probably be difficult to see anything more than sleet. 
 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Eskimo

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Just doing a bit of analysis on what the charts are suggesting. Based on the parameters that we have for the overnight period it really is marginal unless you get heavy bursts of precipitation. 

We had a very similar set up a few years ago in Birmingham - in the centre it was sleeting (~100m asl) and as you climbed up towards the higher regions further west (Quinton, Bearwood etc.) at around 200m, it was pasting it down and white everywhere. In fact, you can see the centre of the city up on Warley Hill (~250m) and it was grey/green down below - bizarre. 

If you live in the River valleys of Severn, Nene, Avon or Trent then your best bet is heavier bursts which may give temporary accumulations. Anywhere within the 'West Midlands Plateau', the Cotswolds (obviously) and up towards the foothills of the Peaks have the best chance as dew points/freezing levels are much lower. Anywhere east of Leicester, you'll be primarily be experiencing higher dew points due to north sea modification and just generally being on flatter land so probably be difficult to see anything more than sleet. 
 

Yeh sounds like it could be one of those messy ones tonight!!could be sleet and rain in one area and 2 miles down the road could be a winter wonderland!!!

[weirpig]

Heavy hail and sleet at mo  fingers crossed for later 

[BhamBoy]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Just doing a bit of analysis on what the charts are suggesting. Based on the parameters that we have for the overnight period it really is marginal for most unless you get heavy bursts of precipitation. 

We had a very similar set up a few years ago in Birmingham - in the centre it was sleeting (~100m asl) and as you climbed up towards the higher regions further west (Quinton, Bearwood etc.) at around 200m, it was pasting it down and white everywhere. In fact, you can see the centre of the city up on Warley Hill (~250m) and it was grey/green down below - bizarre. 

If you live in the River valleys of Severn, Nene, Avon or Trent then your best bet is heavier bursts which may give temporary accumulations. Anywhere within the 'West Midlands Plateau', the Cotswolds (obviously) and up towards the foothills of the Peaks have the best chance as dew points/freezing levels are much lower. Anywhere east of Leicester, you'll be primarily be experiencing higher dew points due to north sea modification and just generally being on flatter land so probably be difficult to see anything more than sleet. 
 

 

14 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Just doing a bit of analysis on what the charts are suggesting. Based on the parameters that we have for the overnight period it really is marginal for most unless you get heavy bursts of precipitation. 

We had a very similar set up a few years ago in Birmingham - in the centre it was sleeting (~100m asl) and as you climbed up towards the higher regions further west (Quinton, Bearwood etc.) at around 200m, it was pasting it down and white everywhere. In fact, you can see the centre of the city up on Warley Hill (~250m) and it was grey/green down below - bizarre. 

If you live in the River valleys of Severn, Nene, Avon or Trent then your best bet is heavier bursts which may give temporary accumulations. Anywhere within the 'West Midlands Plateau', the Cotswolds (obviously) and up towards the foothills of the Peaks have the best chance as dew points/freezing levels are much lower. Anywhere east of Leicester, you'll be primarily be experiencing higher dew points due to north sea modification and just generally being on flatter land so probably be difficult to see anything more than sleet. 
 

Liking that analysis living as I do on the edge of both Quinton and Bearwood! Reminds me of the time I read that Quinton was known as Little Russia due to its altitude and susceptibility to cold winds! 

[Staffmoorlands]

Think its going to be a struggle to see snow east of Staffordshire/Birmingham

[marksp]

Just had first hail, icy shower come through, family member at Crich said its had a few flakes of snow, 220m.

son in law lives 5 miles away at Middleton, 306m whey hey, 10 min walk to cycle centre, 325m so hopefully should see some snow action

[marksp]

Can always drive up to junction of Beeley Lane and Chesterfield Road, now thats 330m always good for hunting down hill snow

 

Elevation Finder

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Find an estimate for the elevation of a point on the earth

 

[sheikhy]

I am close to 100 metres here in south east leics!!!hopefully the freezing level lowers to 0!!

[MattStoke]

Even the lowest parts of Stoke are all >100 m, so always a good chance of snow in these marginal setups. Forecasts always talk of 'hills only' or 'no snow to lower levels' but, to me, Stoke is neither in the hills or at low level. It's of moderate elevation which always seems to be ignored in forecasts.

[Eskimo]

Here's that finger of higher dew points which will likely scupper any snow chances away from the far West of the region unless you get heavier bursts of precipitation, then that dew point will come down. 

[phil b]

Dew point starting to drop now 1.7C Temp 4.1C Hopefully will drop some more as it’s get dark.

[BarometerCat]

GFS 6Z (for what its worth..) says..

 

 That low is tracking down the East, wind warnings out there from Met not suprising.

Snow risk..

 A number of variables as mentioned by others etc..

Whatever the outcome, tonight and tomorrow look interesting from a weather POV, was not expecting this so early this winter!

[sheikhy]

Gfs 12z out and unfortunately most of east mids gona miss out now!!looks like a central/west mids thing!!enjoy watever u get guys!

[MattStoke]

On 26/11/2021 at 15:32, B-C said:

GFS 6Z (for what its worth..) says..

 

 That low is tracking down the East, wind warnings out there from Met not suprising.

Snow risk..

 A number of variables as mentioned by others etc..

Whatever the outcome, tonight and tomorrow look interesting from a weather POV, was not expecting this so early this winter!

Meanwhile, the 12Z shifts things slightly westward, including the snow risk.

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 12z out and unfortunately most of east mids gona miss out now!!looks like a central/west mids thing!!enjoy watever u get guys!

Incredibly fine call tonight, it will all be dependent on how intense the precipitation can remain as it moves south... The cold air does wrap back around after a few hours so it will turn back to snow by the morning, even if it's rain at night

[Eskimo]

Dew point coming down quite rapidly but temperature just steadily decreasing - the drier Arctic air is coming. 

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Meanwhile, the 12Z shifts things slightly westward, including the snow risk.

Gona from a pummeling here in leicester to nothing lol!!enjoy matt ur in a good spot!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Incredibly fine call tonight, it will all be dependent on how intense the precipitation can remain as it moves south... The cold air does wrap back around after a few hours so it will turn back to snow by the morning, even if it's rain at night

Yeh i guess if it can move west like this last minute then it can easily be further east later on!i live in hope!

[BarometerCat]

On 26/11/2021 at 15:42, sheikhy said:

Gfs 12z out and unfortunately most of east mids gona miss out now!!looks like a central/west mids thing!!enjoy watever u get guys!

Hey up @sheikhy  its only 12z, they all go back and forth anyway..  Nothing is nailed on.   Might miss us all yet   It's radar for me later..

[MattStoke]

The Arome too brings the snow risk further west again, but it has two distinct main bands across the West and East Midlands.

Areas of heaviest precipitation have the most likelihood of seeing snow to fairly low levels, particularly further west but later further east as the colder air undercuts.

Edited November 26, 2021 by MattStoke

[MattStoke]

Think the Met Office regional outlook sums up the messy mix well, and it's a bit more wintry than the last update. Again, Stoke isn't really on what I'd class as 'higher ground' or at lower levels, more like moderate level, but I guess such wording is a bit ambiguous and open to interpretation. 

This Evening and Tonight:

Storm Arwen brings strengthening winds through the night, with gales possible in the early hours. Outbreaks of rain spread southwards through the night, falling as snow over high ground and potentially sleet for lower levels. Widely frosty and feeling cold. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Saturday:

Rain and snow clearing through the morning, leaving a largely dry afternoon with sunny intervals. Feeling cold owing to significant wind chill in strong northerly winds. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Think the Met Office regional outlook sums up the messy mix well, and it's a bit more wintry than the last update. Again, Stoke isn't really on what I'd class as 'higher ground' or at lower levels, more like moderate level, but I guess such wording is a bit ambiguous and open to interpretation. 

This Evening and Tonight:

Storm Arwen brings strengthening winds through the night, with gales possible in the early hours. Outbreaks of rain spread southwards through the night, falling as snow over high ground and potentially sleet for lower levels. Widely frosty and feeling cold. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Saturday:

Rain and snow clearing through the morning, leaving a largely dry afternoon with sunny intervals. Feeling cold owing to significant wind chill in strong northerly winds. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

If theres any models that bring cheer to myself and everyone else in the east of the region please do post mate!!

[Eskimo]

Dewpoint gone negative. -0.3C DP, 3.9C T