Scotland Weather discussion

[Penicuikblizzard]

2 hours ago, edo said:

For any Scottish members reading the Model Thread this morning do not be alarmed by the comments. 

The attached chart I have highlighted to explain the reasons for such messages throwing toys out of prams even although the weather for even far south still every chance of being wintry of not nirvana. 

Looks good for us up here though

Edited December 17, 2021 by Penicuikblizzard

[mardatha]

2 hours ago, Puffy MacCloud said:

I managed to sneak through the surgery’s defences this morning in an online dawn raid and was able to leave a message, which I decided should be diagnostic rather than diatribal, despite initial urges. Now back in forward observation post awaiting a reaction… Dull morning outside. It’s bin day, just so as you know.

Puffy my hubby had an emergency  (kidney stones) on Sun night and I called 111. Got Bordoc out within a few hours, and a hospital appt for the 28th, They seem to be operating ok when it's an emergency so if you don't get anywhere with the GP then try 111.

[Quinach]

Gorgeous sparkling winter's day.

Unbroken sunshine and calm conditions.

Overnight low of -3.7c; currently 3.1c.

Fog lingering in shaded areas along with the frost.  The forthcoming grey Permagloom™ forecast by the Met Office from Sunday onwards better not transpire.

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Quinach

[Snowandrocks]

Equally beautiful day on the other side of the hill Quinach. I wish I was a better photographer with a better camera but this Scots Pine was almost glowing as the sun crept back below the horizon. 

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Aye. Crackin evening. Paused on my run for a snap at the top ae the hill looking over towards Gala.

 

EDIT, Mini Miss SS just whatapped this oan the way back fae Duns over the moor.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Cracking sunset pics. Been very dull and overcast in Glasgow today. Very mild too.

Interesting watching the model runs and forecast for next week. Just grateful that it’s going to be seasonal if I’m honest.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Cracking day here as well, early frost never really left the shadows and was readily reforming by mid afternoon as the fog crept up the valley below.

[Quinach]

It's not often you get to see the mist/fog in such detail in daylight...

Massive covid outbreak in the kids school reported this afternoon, with, for example, over half their class absent (with plenty of positive PCR results already going by the parent grapevine). 

Negative test for everyone here so far but it's looking ominous - the booster came just in time.  Other half ordered to get two weeks shopping on the way home, do wonder how well shops etc are going to hold out once people start self-isolating.

[Ravelin]

7 hours ago, edo said:

For any Scottish members reading the Model Thread this morning do not be alarmed by the comments. 

The attached chart I have highlighted to explain the reasons for such messages throwing toys out of prams even although the weather for even far south still every chance of being wintry of not nirvana. 

Aye, felt compelled early this morning (woke up way too early) to post in the model thread. Just had to point out that despite numerous "awful run" comments that the GFS snow depth charts showed lying snow across around 90% of the UK. Now I know those charts are dodgy to say the least that far out, and will change massively every run, but the southern bias in the comments was just ridiculous. 

As as been posted by my local forum buddies, stunning sunrise behind the hills around the Vale of Alford this morning with fog lying in the valley. Not yoo dissimilar on my drive home too. 

Finished for Xmas now, wonder when we'll get back? 

[Ravelin]

17 minutes ago, Quinach said:

Massive covid outbreak in the kids school reported this afternoon, with, for example, over half their class absent (with plenty of positive PCR results already going by the parent grapevine).

Sorry to hear that, and exactly what I expected would happen. If the rules are followed then that's a number of whole families who will have to self isolate over Xmas. Is that more or less likely to "affect pupils mental health" than having shut schools a few days early? 

Hopefully I'm now in the clear having finished at school today, youngest son finishes Tuesday, wife not until Thursday (Moray). A few more days yet then hoping they don't catch anything before we're in the clear. 

[Sceptical]

1 hour ago, Quinach said:

It's not often you get to see the mist/fog in such detail in daylight...

Massive covid outbreak in the kids school reported this afternoon, with, for example, over half their class absent (with plenty of positive PCR results already going by the parent grapevine). 

Negative test for everyone here so far but it's looking ominous - the booster came just in time.  Other half ordered to get two weeks shopping on the way home, do wonder how well shops etc are going to hold out once people start self-isolating.

I'm trying to organise a PCR test at the moment. Spoke with a pharmacist around 5pm about a lateral flow test and after a few questions she told me to book a PCR instead. Quite a few lads on site today were coughing or complaining they felt wrecked.

Better get food in before we're all snowed in  

[A Winter's Tale]

Latest ECM very snowy for much of Scotland after Christmas Eve. 

Despite a significant shift north it’s still looking good for snow prospects during the Christmas period but it’s a very fine margin between significant lowland snowfall and cold rain/hill snow. We can’t afford for another shift north or we risk missing out. With the tropospheric polar vortex looking fragmented and the likelihood of heights to our north/north west we should have a chance of further shots of cold and snow going forward. But higher pressure to our NW doesn’t mean we will have a continuous supply of cold air - especially if high pressure moves too far north and west - but as shown on today’s charts Scotland has a better chance of being on the right side of marginality. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

37 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

Latest ECM very snowy for much of Scotland after Christmas Eve. 

Despite a significant shift north it’s still looking good for snow prospects during the Christmas period but it’s a very fine margin between significant lowland snowfall and cold rain/hill snow. We can’t afford for another shift north or we risk missing out. With the tropospheric polar vortex looking fragmented and the likelihood of heights to our north/north west we should have a chance of further shots of cold and snow going forward. But higher pressure to our NW doesn’t mean we will have a continuous supply of cold air - especially if high pressure moves too far north and west - but as shown on today’s charts Scotland has a better chance of being on the right side of marginality. 

Yes please will gladly take this over the Xmas period

[Northernlights]

As elsewhere a fabulous winters day starting with  a fine sunrise witrh a maximum temperature of 6c during the day so to take advantage of it we set about lifting another store of neeps in case forward forecasts prove correct.  Lifting the last few rows in this section with a fine sunset.

[Mair Snaw]

1 hour ago, A Winter's Tale said:

Latest ECM very snowy for much of Scotland after Christmas Eve. 

Despite a significant shift north it’s still looking good for snow prospects during the Christmas period but it’s a very fine margin between significant lowland snowfall and cold rain/hill snow. We can’t afford for another shift north or we risk missing out. With the tropospheric polar vortex looking fragmented and the likelihood of heights to our north/north west we should have a chance of further shots of cold and snow going forward. But higher pressure to our NW doesn’t mean we will have a continuous supply of cold air - especially if high pressure moves too far north and west - but as shown on today’s charts Scotland has a better chance of being on the right side of marginality. 

That will do for me.. lovely stuff.. now who's gonna be the brave one to post that chart in the mad house before the pub run comes out..

I wouldnt know how to do that myself...

[Norrance]

Similar here with sunshine all day and just a few mist patches over the river and on hillsides. Frosty early and late and sticking all day on some surfaces in the shade. Reporting Scotland forecast hinted at possible snow towards Christmas. Hopefully will come but not enough to block the roads at least at first as we are driving through to Bearsden on Christmas morning. Glorious sunset here too looking up the river but was driving so didn't get a chance for a photo.

[Sceptical]

16 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

That will do for me.. lovely stuff.. now who's gonna be the brave one to post that chart in the mad house before the pub run comes out..

I wouldnt know how to do that myself...

It's a while off but the Met have the winds swinging round late on Xmas eve to give us a NNE. That's definitely got my attention  

[Sceptical]

The Lecht February 2021. 

insane snowfall.

Scroll down for the video  

Scots farmer shares clip of "25ft snow wall" - Scottish News

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

The snow can be seen towering over the large vehicle which according to Charles was over 25 feet tall - Scottish News

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Sceptical

[A Winter's Tale]

Some similarities with the cold spell of late December 2000:

21 Dec 2000

21 Dec 2021 

22 Dec 2000

22 Dec 2021

23 Dec 2000

23 Dec 2021

24 Dec 2000

24 Dec 2021

25 Dec 2000

25 Dec 2021

26 Dec 2000

26 Dec 2021

27 Dec 2000

27 Dec 2021

That cold spell started around Christmas Eve and lasted to around New Year’s Eve. It wasn’t as prolonged as many of the classic cold spells but it was quite a notable period of weather. 

Temperatures at Glasgow airport:

24th 4/1

25th 2/-2

26th -3/-5

27th -1/-6

28th -1/-9

29th -3/-10

30th -3/-11

31st 4/-6

 

The period between 26th-30th Dec 2000 saw the joint most consecutive days of maximum temperatures -1C or lower (equal to Dec 2010) in records since 1973. There was quite a notable snowfall around the 28th with depths around 15-20cm+ in the Glasgow area. The weather during that period would not have looked out of place in 2010. 

Looking at the archives the main difference between 2000 and 2031 is the shape of the low pressure system in the Atlantic (elongated in 2000, bowling ball in 2021).

 

The potential snowfall in the Christmas period also reminds me a little of 26 Feb 2001. 

[edinburgh_1992]

Definitely an interesting period ahead. 
 

My main concern is that the eastern winds will be travelling across a relatively warm North Sea, and that may ruin the chances of seeing snow for eastern areas (Edinburgh included). I think we’d need at least uppers of -8 to guarantee snowfall. 

[edo]

7 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Definitely an interesting period ahead. 
 

My main concern is that the eastern winds will be travelling across a relatively warm North Sea, and that may ruin the chances of seeing snow for eastern areas (Edinburgh included). I think we’d need at least uppers of -8 to guarantee snowfall. 

plenty of runs have had that the last few days, temp of sea would aid convection so a risk/reward scenario.

great post AWT love looking at year comparisons 

 

my lowly educated thoughts remains the same that 23rd still looks like the start of the cold spell and 3 options remain on the table

cold/foggy

bright/dry

lots of snow

 

some real tasty perbs out there though.....hows this for xmas eve 

Edited December 17, 2021 by edo

[A Winter's Tale]

GFS 18z is an upgrade with a chance of significant snowfall across large parts of Scotland between Christmas Eve and Boxing Day. A cold Northerly follows until a battleground snowfall on the 30th. Turning milder around New Year but very impressive northern hemispheric profile with a very much diminished polar vortex (which doesn’t guarantee cold and snow but increases the likelihood of the ebbing and flowing of cold in January). 

Model watching doesn’t get much more exciting than this. The upcoming period is certainly the most promising for December cold and snow since 2010 and probably the best chance of a prolonged cold spell since then. The period between 24th-27th December has the potential to produce not only a white Christmas (and it looks likely that somewhere should see a technical white Christmas) but a snowfall on the magnitude of 28 Feb 2018, 6 Dec 2010, 12 Mar 2006.

Unlike the beast from the east which was a convective snow event this would be a frontal snowfall and there haven’t been too many notable frontal snowfalls in the last decade. This is very much a high risk/high reward scenario. A shift north and most would end up with cold rain/hill snow. A shift south and we have dry, cold conditions with perhaps some snow showers. If things stay as they are now we could see a significant snow event and if the GFS 18z is correct Christmas Eve into Christmas morning could be very snowy. It’s a long way off and a lot will change between now and then but it will be fascinating to see how things progress. 

The upcoming cold spell may not yet be 2010 levels in terms of severity and longevity but I would very happily take a one off large snowfall or a week of proper winter weather. I do think as we get closer to Christmas we might see upgrades in terms of blocking and longevity of cold and if the PV continues to be diminished as charts are currently showing then January could be very interesting. 

 

 

[Quinach]

5 hours ago, Ravelin said:

Sorry to hear that, and exactly what I expected would happen. If the rules are followed then that's a number of whole families who will have to self isolate over Xmas. Is that more or less likely to "affect pupils mental health" than having shut schools a few days early? 

Hopefully I'm now in the clear having finished at school today, youngest son finishes Tuesday, wife not until Thursday (Moray). A few more days yet then hoping they don't catch anything before we're in the clear. 

4 hours ago, Sceptical said:

I'm trying to organise a PCR test at the moment. Spoke with a pharmacist around 5pm about a lateral flow test and after a few questions she told me to book a PCR instead. Quite a few lads on site today were coughing or complaining they felt wrecked.

Better get food in before we're all snowed in  

It's concerning how fast this is kicking off.  The kids were tested this morning and were negative.  Doing another lateral flow this evening they are now positive so off for PCR tests tomorrow - nobody has any symptoms (so far).

Speaking to other parents this evening it's a similar story so looks like a very large proportion of the school now has it.  So it has gone from a couple of cases last week to scores of infections this evening, and that is even with the school doing its absolute best to keep the disease at bay.

As for weather, very foggy and murky outside and currently -2.8c.

[Ravelin]

6 hours ago, Quinach said:

It's concerning how fast this is kicking off.  The kids were tested this morning and were negative.  Doing another lateral flow this evening they are now positive so off for PCR tests tomorrow - nobody has any symptoms (so far).

Speaking to other parents this evening it's a similar story so looks like a very large proportion of the school now has it.  So it has gone from a couple of cases last week to scores of infections this evening, and that is even with the school doing its absolute best to keep the disease at bay.

As for weather, very foggy and murky outside and currently -2.8c.

I've worked with several pupils who have tested positive and had to isolate, most likely with the Delta variant. When they've returned to school they've all said it wasn't that bad. It's more the fear of it being passed on to someone more vulnerable. 

Currently -0.5C here but that seems to be warm compared to other local stations, with big variations. A lot of cold air pooling in the lower spots I'd think, with Lumsden sitting at -7C.

[drm]

Mistake or a huge temperature inversion? 14c in the mountains and - 4c here in Aberdeen.