Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[mushymanrob]

44 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This is the latest Met O video 10 day forecast, little mention of what most are hoping for, but of course it could change!

 

True it could change, and if i recall, this video was released before there was a threat of an easterly which has developed since this was compiled.

Plus, it doesnt really agree too much with the NOAA charts... so where do your loyalties lie John?... the met office or the Anomaly charts?...lol

[johnholmes]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

True it could change, and if i recall, this video was released before there was a threat of an easterly which has developed since this was compiled.

Plus, it doesnt really agree too much with the NOAA charts... so where do your loyalties lie John?... the met office or the Anomaly charts?...lol

I just try to look at what the models, all of them show, and spend time trying to make my own mind up.

I simply posted the Met O video to show what the actual data is showing on the model used in the video. One possible outcome, anomaly charts show another, GFS yet another etc. Fence sitting time for me for at least 2-3 days. Re NOAA/EC anomalies, very unusual charts but I can see how the Atlantic MIGHT push through with the block moving north, maybe the two blocks linking up. What does that =, best wait and see, just off to go and sit on my fence!

[Norrance]

The Met O are sticking with the cold in South, mild in North theme. Not entirely sure where they get that from as that ties in with a Southern Scandi/Euro high.

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 21 Dec - Thursday 30 Dec

The start of this period is looking to be settled and predominantly dry with large amounts of cloud. Isolated mist and fog patches developing in clearer areas. In general, cloud amounts will tend to reduce with time, with a corresponding increase in the risk of overnight fog and frost, which may be slow to clear by day in some areas. Towards the middle of the period, there is an increasing chance of more unsettled and windier weather affecting the UK, with rain, and perhaps snow, possible for some places. Temperatures will generally be near to below normal, perhaps rather cold in the south, feeling chilly where any fog persists, and locally mild in the north and northwest.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 16 Dec 2021

Friday 31 Dec - Friday 14 Jan

Settled conditions are likely to remain into the New Year with a continued risk of frost and fog. Any unsettled spells are most likely for the northwest, with occasional stronger winds, and some showers or longer spells of rain and potential for areas of snow. Temperatures are expected to be around average, but milder in the north, and colder in the south at times, where frost is most likely. Heading deeper into January there is a likely shift towards more changeable conditions, especially in the northwest, and turning milder again too.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Thu 16 Dec 2021

[MattStoke]

Wednesday 22 Dec - Friday 31 Dec

A cloudy start to this period but remaining generally dry with just some light rain possible in north Scotland. This dry weather continues for a time with variable cloud cover across most of the nation, although occasional showers may be possible for north and eastern coastal regions. Towards the middle of this period the threat of rain or wintery conditions increases, particularly towards the south and south west. During this time some stronger winds are possible, although these are likely to be confined to southern regions. Temperatures likely to be rather cold with overnight frosts and increased risk of fog. Settled conditions however are likely to remain through the last few days of the year with a continued risk of frost and fog.
 

Saturday 1 Jan - Saturday 15 Jan

Any unsettled conditions during the start of this period are most likely to be confined to west and south-western regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. Through January, cold air is signalled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK. Milder spells are still likely, with these potentially bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and potential snow. Overall, the period is slightly more likely to be colder than normal although a lot of uncertainty surrounds this.

 

Much better!

 

[Speedbird]

Wednesday 22 Dec - Friday 31 Dec

A cloudy start to this period but remaining generally dry with just some light rain possible in north Scotland. This dry weather continues for a time with variable cloud cover across most of the nation, although occasional showers may be possible for north and eastern coastal regions. Towards the middle of this period the threat of rain or wintery conditions increases, particularly towards the south and south west. During this time some stronger winds are possible, although these are likely to be confined to southern regions. Temperatures likely to be rather cold with overnight frosts and increased risk of fog. Settled conditions however are likely to remain through the last few days of the year with a continued risk of frost and fog.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 17 Dec 2021

Saturday 1 Jan - Saturday 15 Jan

Any unsettled conditions during the start of this period are most likely to be confined to west and south-western regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. Through January, cold air is signalled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK. Milder spells are still likely, with these potentially bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and potential snow. Overall, the period is slightly more likely to be colder than normal although a lot of uncertainty surrounds this.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 17 Dec 2021

 

Very interesting, especially the period from 1 January with ' Through January, cold air is signalled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK'

[damianslaw]

Marked turnaround from the met office today. For about a week it has stuck with a forecast gradually turning milder through first part of Jan. Now it is talking of easterly winds and also indicates the block to the NW will hold firm through test of December and frontal attacks is further SW.

It is often very conservative and sitting on the fence but it is bullish today in its belief of colder conditions holding sway.

Important development.

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 23 Dec - Saturday 1 Jan

It is expected to turn unsettled towards Christmas, particularly in the south, as a front approaches bringing cloud to the southwest, as well as rain and possibly wintry conditions to parts of the country. Whereas the drier weather may continue elsewhere for a time with variable cloud cover, although occasional showers may be possible for northern and eastern coastal regions. Rather cold in the north but turning milder across the south. During this time some stronger winds are possible, although these are likely to be confined to southern regions. Settled conditions however, are likely to continue towards the end of the year with the potential for frost and fog. Temperatures likely to be rather cold with overnight frosts and increased risk of fog.

Sunday 2 Jan - Sunday 16 Jan

Any unsettled conditions during the start of the New Year are most likely to be confined to west and south-western regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. Through January, cold air is signalled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK. Milder spells are still likely, with these potentially bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and potential snow. Overall, the period is slightly more likely to be colder than normal although a lot of uncertainty surrounds this.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[johnholmes]

This is the updated Met O prediction for the Xmas period, update this afternoon.

Not sure it will be all that well received after so many looking at the fine detail on each picture from each model comes out.

Anyway here it is

Friday 24 Dec - Sunday 2 Jan

Low pressure likely to continue to be positioned to the south of the UK, and high pressure further north. This results in a boundary between colder air to the north and milder air in the south. Unsettled weather results, with increased cloud amounts, occasional rain and some stronger winds, fluctuating north to south through the initial period. Rain may turn wintry at times on the northern edge, most likely across central and northern areas, and mainly over higher ground. Milder temperatures more likely in the south, with brighter colder conditions in the north with some wintry showers. Settled conditions look likely to return towards the end of December into the New Year with temperatures likely rather cold and the potential for overnight frost and an increasing risk of fog.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 19 Dec 2021

[Summer Sun]

Friday 24 Dec - Sunday 2 Jan

Low pressure likely to continue to be positioned to the south of the UK, and high pressure further north. This results in a boundary between colder air to the north and milder air in the south. Unsettled weather results, with increased cloud amounts, occasional rain and some stronger winds, fluctuating north to south through the initial period. Rain may turn wintry at times on the northern edge, most likely across central and northern areas, and mainly over higher ground. Milder temperatures more likely in the south, with brighter colder conditions in the north with some wintry showers. Settled conditions look likely to return towards the end of December into the New Year with temperatures likely rather cold and the potential for overnight frost and an increasing risk of fog.

Monday 3 Jan - Monday 17 Jan

Any unsettled conditions during the start of the New Year are most likely to be confined to west and south-western regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. Through January, cold air is signaled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK. Milder spells are still likely, with these potentially bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and potential snow. Overall, the period is slightly more likely to be colder than normal although a lot of uncertainty surrounds this.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[carinthian]

Met Office Christmas Forecast just released. Basically, cannot be certain of the boundary, just like the models.

C

[Polar Maritime]

Uncertainty to say the least!

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Met Office Christmas Forecast just released. Basically, cannot be certain of the boundary, just like the models.

C

Well from where I'm sat it's unlikely ( being generous) that GFS will trump EC/UKMO at t96.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Meto Christmas Outlook.

Christmas outlook

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The outlook for Christmas Day looks unsettled with the chance of snow in some northern parts of the UK.

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Don]

Latest Metoffice outlook is hinting at similar conditions to last year, being predominately cold in the north with some snow and milder at times in the south.

[Norrance]

Not the BBC but STV forecast for here on Christmas day said snow showers. Any fronts therefor are expected to be much further South. I actually am not sure what models STV weather base their forecasts on but that is a significant change from them. 

[damianslaw]

BBC forecasts are woeful. Just looked at the app temperatures not expected to drop below max 6 degrees through to end of month.. the weather chart is completely incorrect. Changes on an hourly basis. It will change significantly again tomorrow. 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 26 Dec - Tuesday 4 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Snow showers are looking to continue across far northern areas, with perhaps some mainly light rain or snow for southern locations. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions with brighter spells and perhaps some frost or ice. Feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds for many. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times in addition to possibly strong winds. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Wednesday 5 Jan - Wednesday 19 Jan

Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 27 Dec - Wednesday 5 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Looking to remain unsettled with further spells of rain for most at first. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north, more settled conditions with brighter spells and winds slowly easing to lead to perhaps some frost or ice. Becoming milder across northern areas in time. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times, in addition to the associated wintry hazards. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Thursday 6 Jan - Thursday 20 Jan

Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Midlander]

I assume they didn't post the 10 Day Trend today due to the uncertainty, or is it because they are having a Xmas break...

[damianslaw]

Suggests the met see heights to our NE in early January and trough/low pressure to our SW that struggles to make inroads hence SE cold flow.. mmm.. however the wording for late Dec doesn't correlate with what models are showing which is a SW flow to end the year and start the new year.. but could the azores high quickly move to scandi.. possibly..

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 28 Dec - Thursday 6 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Looking to remain unsettled with further spells of rain for most at first. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north, more settled conditions with brighter spells and winds slowly easing to lead to perhaps some frost or ice. Becoming very mild across all areas in time. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times, in addition to the associated wintry hazards. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Friday 7 Jan - Friday 21 Jan

Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Staffmoorlands]

2 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

right at the end of January so it could change 

They have now removed any mention of a cold start to January. 

Wednesday 29 Dec - Friday 7 Jan

To begin the period, rain will move east across the UK, with some transitory snow likely to affect the high ground in the north. Potential for rain to be heavy and persistent, particularly in the west. Temperatures mild for most, with the chance of some strong coastal gales affecting the south and west. Unsettled conditions likely to continue for most, but the chance for some drier and brighter spells in the south east at times. Heading into January, Atlantic weather systems likely to move in from the west, bringing further unsettled conditions and potentially heavy rain for some. Between these systems, drier and brighter periods likely but still a chance of showers. Unsettled weather to continue to end the period, with showers or longer spells of rain likely

 

[joggs]

What a joke these further forecasts are. Flip in a day like that

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, joggs said:

What a joke these further forecasts are. Flip in a day like that

Gee, it was only last week that peeps were whining about them not 'flipping'!