Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[sorepaw1]

This was on my way home from work last night unexpectedly snowed roads like sheets of ice...

Note worthy on the 18z GFS 

For next Tuesday night possibly another named storm approaching 

Potential for some low level snow opportunities even further south. 

 

[That ECM]

Looks like the storm will land. The exact location and intensity to be decided. 

[Gary2701]

Will it get a name!

 

[That ECM]

On 03/12/2021 at 06:14, Gary2701 said:

Will it get a name!

 

For sure if it is anything like this. Starting with B. 

[carinthian]

11 hours ago, carinthian said:

Evening all, yes looks like writing on the wall for any easterly incursion to push into the British Isles. The big three models have the low forming off the Eastern Seaboard of North America at 72h and develops into  a deepening closed Low out in Mid Atlantic in almost the same spot.  Unless there is a sudden back track from the models in the next 24 hours , I can only see the low exiting Northwards towards the British Isles. May not end up particularly mild, rather cold to be more likely but not the frigid air mass we were hoping for. I will give it another 24 hours before throwing the towel in yet again for that allusive real chill for you lot back in Blighty !

C

Give me hope UKMO extended ( below ). Atlantic jet digging SE ? Not so from GFS  which wants to eventually remove any remnants of cold from the "Land of Nod " ( East Yorkshire ) early next week. From then on we can see from this mornings run, not a good outlook in its longer term run regarding cold prospects with always the hint of Euro high eventually taking charge with a mild feast in the offering.

C

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by carinthian

[Gary2701]

Bloody hell i hope it moderate as I have just repaired everything from the last storm!!

 

[That ECM]

The track of it on the ecm will raise a few coldies eyebrows.

[Lukesluckybunch]

much better ECM this morning with lows at 144 taking a more southeastward track into europe

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The track of it on the ecm will raise a few coldies eyebrows.

yes looks better some kind of easterly maybe at 168

[carinthian]

13 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Give me hope UKMO extended ( below ). Atlantic jet digging SE ? Not so from GFS  which wants to eventually remove any remnants of cold from the "Land of Nod " ( East Yorkshire ) early next week. From then on we can see from this mornings run, not a good outlook in its longer term run regarding cold prospects with always the hint of Euro high eventually taking charge with a mild feast in the offering.

C

 

ECM has also some colder air mass in place for this time next week. Maybe some snow for some going by that chart.

[mulzy]

Interesting UKMO and ECM charts at day 7...

[Gerryhattrick]

28 minutes ago, Gary2701 said:

Will it get a name!

 

Storm Barra should it happen as forecast

[That ECM]

On 03/12/2021 at 06:22, That ECM said:

For sure if it is anything like this. Starting with B. 

Whilst meeting to think of a name beginning with B they may as well choose C if ecm is correct.

[Griff]

Gem in FI says all may not be what it seems towards Greenland and the position of the vortex. 

Signs of amplification again. 

 

JMA thinks so too

I'm interested to see what the ecm thinks... 

[Sceptical]

Met Office storm names for 2021/2022? The storm names are Arwen, Barra, Corrie, Dudley, Eunice, Franklin, Gladys, Herman, Imani, Jack, Kim, Logan, Méabh, Nasim, Olwen, Pól, Ruby, Seán, Tineke, Vergil and Willemien

[nick sussex]

The ECM is best at least until day 9 for coldies as it takes the low further se and with a bit more trough disruption and a westwards correction it could develop a bit more interest.

Theres no chance of any interest if the low gets pulled into the vortex of doom as per the GFS.

 

[Griff]

18 minutes ago, Griff said:

Gem in FI says all may not be what it seems towards Greenland and the position of the vortex. 

Signs of amplification again. 

 

JMA thinks so too

I'm interested to see what the ecm thinks... 

 

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is best at least until day 9 for coldies as it takes the low further se and with a bit more trough disruption and a westwards correction it could develop a bit more interest.

Theres no chance of any interest if the low gets pulled into the vortex of doom as per the GFS.

 

But what comes next? 

Looks potentially wavy over the Atlantic again. 

Although ecm not equal to the other two I mentioned previously. 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Griff

[knocker]

Obviously next week's low is of immediate concern but just to note there is little change from the medium term anomalies this morning. Thus the leading players remain the tpv, in particular the Atlantic energy/trough, and the Ural ridge, with the detail depending on the precise interaction of these two. Likely unsettled with quite a large variation of temps.

[bluearmy]

 Not surprised to see the low trough continue to lie nw/se but alas for coldies, it needs to be  further south and west for the U.K. to be on the cold side. then you have a margin of error. The hope now is that it backs further sw on the basis that the blocking will be stronger and the trough less deep …… but that’s more hope than expectation.

In the 8 to 12 day period the push of the jet on a more sw/ne axis looks cross model agreed with a consequential rise in s euro heights. then what happens with the blocking over W Asia. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Wow - GFS 00z has a belter of a Dartboard at +111 down to 945mb  Tuesday Wednesday  - in the reliable?  - Cornwall an the SW in the firing line.

Previous to this next promising assault re snow is a Greeny incursion at +81 Cumbria - Northumbria maybe to 1200ft asl potential 9 hours fall?

 

All in all an interesting if not concerning week ahead.

[Iceaxecrampon]

On 03/12/2021 at 06:54, Sceptical said:

Met Office storm names for 2021/2022? The storm names are Arwen, Barra, Corrie, Dudley, Eunice, Franklin, Gladys, Herman, Imani, Jack, Kim, Logan, Méabh, Nasim, Olwen, Pól, Ruby, Seán, Tineke, Vergil and Willemien

Lordy - If we get to Tineke will we still be here?

[mb018538]

All the pointers looking good on last nights ECM update. MJO moving through phases 7 and possibly 8 is usually good news for the UK, and the regime plot is a sea of red from mid month onwards. Blocking forecast to return. No zonal onslaught for weeks on end is the current thinking.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 Not surprised to see the low trough continue to lie nw/se but alas for coldies, it needs to be  further south and west for the U.K. to be on the cold side. then you have a margin of error. The hope now is that it backs further sw on the basis that the blocking will be stronger and the trough less deep …… but that’s more hope than expectation.

In the 8 to 12 day period the push of the jet on a more sw/ne axis looks cross model agreed with a consequential rise in s euro heights. then what happens with the blocking over W Asia. 

It's all looking a bit ominous for the next 10 days or so,especially if you hate December wind and rain like myself.

Let's see where we are in a weeks time ,hoping some of the forces lining up against this vortex ( nina / eqbo / mjo(?) ) will slow it down , certainly looks like any route to cold will involve High pressure to our south ridging north...our latitude can produce some cold nights at this time of year of course.

Fingers crossed, I'll reluctantly accept an unsettled phase if we can get a block going later...

 

 

[IDO]

The ECM delays the inevitable westerly flush for a day or so with a sneaky wedge, rather than the ridge from two days ago:

ECM at D6> GFS at D6>

Not game changing and likely to disappear by the 12z but remains on the table.

No real change in FI on the GFS, 5-7 days for the lower heights to flush from the NW and then heights building from the SW so a dry out the further SE you are.

Mean gfs D8-16: 

[mhielte]

25 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Wow - GFS 00z has a belter of a Dartboard at +111 down to 945mb  Tuesday Wednesday  - in the reliable?  - Cornwall an the SW in the firing line.

 

FAX charts look just as worrying!