Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[nick sussex]

Some signs of a change but the left over chunk of PV in ne Canada west Greenland  does mean that higher latitude blocking is unlikely .

The set up with main PV to the ne and smaller lobe to the nw does though allow for a wedge to develop to the north .

Upstream does look rather messy with lots of shortwave activity so best not to take the detail too seriously in later timeframes .

We need to see the movement of the PV in the more reliable timeframe .

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I rarely react when someone posts a FI chart, let them have their moment of positivity and hope, but as soon as expres my opinion on things which may not be appealing for cold prospects I do get reactions for being pesimistic yet you Can judge the outcome yourself who is right.

Again it's not about who is right or wrong as nobody is predicting 100% what an outcome will be.  We are surely just discussing the model output as it comes out?

I just don't get the one upmanship and sniping in this forum at times.  The weather will do what it wants to do regardless of our hot air!

Anyways on that note I'm off to find a cold chart in Fantasy Land! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

what i find really frustrating is the models delay the cold each time,yesterday it was 16th above is a chart for the 20th...the ECM still not interested is the climb down of the cold already showing!

[markw2680]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

what i find really frustrating is the models delay the cold each time,yesterday it was 16th above is a chart for the 20th...the ECM still not interested is the climb down of the cold already showing!

Nothing to climb down from at that timeframe. Anything from about the 10th is pure fi and not to be taken seriously or imo even looked at other than for a laugh. I don’t get this who will backdown etc they are just computers predicting what they see nothing more nothing less

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Nothing to climb down from at that timeframe. Anything from about the 10th is pure fi and not to be taken seriously or imo even looked at other than for a laugh. I don’t get this who will backdown etc they are just computers predicting what they see nothing more nothing less

well yea thas true,we are basically looking for trends and yesterdays 12z was a nice one!..but you are correct lets hope the 6z will see things flip once again in fi..as many have said somtimes these cold spells can spring out from nowhere

[frosty ground]

42 minutes ago, jules216 said:

But judging by the posts in this thread it feels like you just had a 2010 redux, at 240hr away, whats wrong with ballancing a reality check against 100 posts of 240h away? And talking about our Snow event as a slice of luck we got 14cm in between a dire pathetic period of winter which managed to thaw 35cm of snow between 31.12 and 04.01 in unprecedented spell of mild weather. Why is it that it feels like a provocation if I post my views that more often then not prove to be closer to reality than these 360h GFS charts?

Not sure you’ve been reading this thread properly 

[claret047]

9 hours ago, offerman said:

It’s all too far out imho for those cold charts. Remember what was progged for the Christmas period and the flip just two days out for the worse.

 Wait until these charts verify much nearer the time hehe getting yourselves too excited , save being let down too much that way. Gfs does overcook these types of cold scenarios. 

Sorry to be pedantic but how can something "verify nearer the time". Surely it can only verify at the time that is shown on the chart?

This time I feel, and it is no more than a feeling, the building blocks will gradually evolve rather than an overnight change. Gradual changes tend to result in longer term conditions staying insitu rather than sudden ones, which tend to be northern topplers.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, claret047 said:

Sorry to be pedantic but how can something "verify nearer the time". Surely it can only verify at the time that is shown on the chart?

This time I feel, and it is no more than a feeling, the building blocks will gradually evolve rather than an overnight change. Gradual changes tend to result in longer term conditions staying insitu rather than sudden ones, which tend to be northern topplers.

I believe fergie stated in Late December that most indicators were aligned for a colder period in Jan but just were not coming together yet.

Could be imagining it but i think not.

[weathercold]

Not seeing any signs of realistic northern blocking. With part of the PV left to our NW it will ultimately fail sadly.

Appreciate yesterday’s GFS 12Z showed true holy grail- if everything falls perfectly that’s what can happen. But to balance this the majority of the output doesn’t show anything resembling this.

ECM is not interested at all and the latest GFS is pushing back the potential height rise past the 20th now.

Don’t get sucked in by the odd GFS nirvana chart is my advice. Would love to be wrong here but personally not seeing a ‘proper’ realistic winter Synoptics for a deep freeze.

All the best 

Edited January 6, 2022 by weathercold

[Nick F]

Ok, less of the snipes please, there's nothing wrong with getting excited and discussing F.I. charts showing cold in the 'hunt for cold' MOD thread. Even if, in all likelihood, they don't come off, but I'm sure most are prepared for this possibility.

Having said that, not only does the TPV looks to be on the move towards Scandi and NW Russia, the SPV also looks like making a wholesale movement from it's current perch over far north of Canada and Greenland towards NE Europe / NW Russia too, looking at the GEFS mean at 10 hPa.

But, as Nick Sussex mentioned, there's that lobe of the TPV still over NE Canada which will fuel the northern arm of the jet to try and flatten any Atlantic ridging.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Nick F

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS /ECM/GEM all still working hard to work out the up and coming high pressure positioning,

GEFS ensembles many members still in the -10hpa including control operational up and down like a yo yo.

Meanwhile-4.8 in Oxford last night a bit chilly to the Willy.

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,GFS /ECM/GEM all still working hard to work out the up and coming high pressure positioning,

GEFS ensembles many members still in the -10hpa including control operational up and down like a yo yo.

Meanwhile-4.8 in Oxford last night a bit chilly to the Willy.

haha who has any hope for the 6z?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

45 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

what i find really frustrating is the models delay the cold each time,yesterday it was 16th above is a chart for the 20th...the ECM still not interested is the climb down of the cold already showing!

No it’s absolutely freezing right now.  Don’t be hung up or drawn in re nirvana charts just yet. I doubt deep FI GFS charts etc will verify as soon as they are showing.  Too early imo, I think this HP that develops will be around a while when it comes, a slow burner ahead.  ECM moving at a more reasonable pace imo.

 

BFTP

[geordiekev]

51 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some signs of a change but the left over chunk of PV in ne Canada west Greenland  does mean that higher latitude blocking is unlikely .

The set up with main PV to the ne and smaller lobe to the nw does though allow for a wedge to develop to the north .

Upstream does look rather messy with lots of shortwave activity so best not to take the detail too seriously in later timeframes .

We need to see the movement of the PV in the more reliable timeframe .

 

To be fair, the HLB went too high at Christmas going up to Arctic so think I prefer to see some lobe remain

[jules216]

The cluster chart 2 days ago that had at 264h main lobe of lover heigts thrending Down to ať least south of Scandi/Baltic has them now at 240h in Western Russia or far east Scandi. Clear thrend of de-amplifying pattern mid range unfortunatelly. And this is evident on All clusters. 

[Anthony Burden]

14 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Ok, less of the snipes please, there's nothing wrong with getting excited and discussing F.I. charts showing cold in the 'hunt for cold' MOD thread. Even if, in all likelihood, they don't come off, but I'm sure most are prepared for this possibility.

Having said that, not only does the TPV looks to be on the move towards Scandi and NW Russia, the SPV also looks like making a wholesale movement from it's current perch over far north of Canada and Greenland towards NE Europe / NW Russia too, looking at the GEFS mean at 10 hPa.

But, as Nick Sussex mentioned, there's that lobe of the TPV still over NE Canada which will fuel the northern arm of the jet to try and flatten any Atlantic ridging.

Morning Nick,before Christmas high level blocking was strongly fancied to take control of the U.K. weather,never happened yet E-QBO along with other favourable factors could not influence the weather over the U.K. . Maybe 

this time with less favourable issues on side perhaps jackpot Charlie.

 

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

The cluster chart 2 days ago that had at 264h main lobe of lover heigts thrending Down to ať least south of Scandi/Baltic has them now at 240h in Western Russia or far east Scandi. Clear thrend of de-amplifying pattern mid range unfortunatelly. And this is evident on All clusters. 

Amplifying the Atlantic ridge in 2 of 4 clusters in the T264-300 range though? Though with the usual caveats at that range!

Any amplification from GFS op has generally been after day 10 anyway in FI.

 

 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Nick F

[geordiekev]

Seems the watch is for the cut off low which is present around day 5 thru 7 heading East to prop up the high on GFS but lacking depth on the ECM

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, jules216 said:

The cluster chart 2 days ago that had at 264h main lobe of lover heigts thrending Down to ať least south of Scandi/Baltic has them now at 240h in Western Russia or far east Scandi. Clear thrend of de-amplifying pattern mid range unfortunatelly. And this is evident on All clusters. 

agree jules none of them showing HP over greenland!..good news is the proper cold wasnt forecast until 16th at least anyway,so plenty of time for positive adjustments

Edited January 6, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch

[Lukesluckybunch]

part of me is thinking that we will see somthing much colder,especially by the end of january!..my guess would be at the moment cold arriving 17th18th i hope there will be more evidence of this in the coming days

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

part of me is thinking that we will see somthing much colder,especially by the end of january!..my guess would be at the moment cold arriving 17th18th i hope there will be more evidence of this in the coming days

GFS has shown this on its last 3 runs on the trot so fairly likely we will see some kind of northerly around then, how amplified and how long remains in question. GEFS ensembles still 50/50 for anything of note from day 12 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS has shown this on its last 3 runs on the trot so fairly likely we will see some kind of northerly around then, how amplified and how long remains in question. GEFS ensembles still 50/50 for anything of note from day 12 

what a gorgeous chart..yes im having hope things cant continue mild,we normally get a cold spell at some point in winter! but not always especially in the UK...its such a joy to see when there are greens and yellows over greenland,looking forward to the 6z!

Edited January 6, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Ok, less of the snipes please, there's nothing wrong with getting excited and discussing F.I. charts showing cold in the 'hunt for cold' MOD thread. Even if, in all likelihood, they don't come off, but I'm sure most are prepared for this possibility.

Having said that, not only does the TPV looks to be on the move towards Scandi and NW Russia, the SPV also looks like making a wholesale movement from it's current perch over far north of Canada and Greenland towards NE Europe / NW Russia too, looking at the GEFS mean at 10 hPa.

But, as Nick Sussex mentioned, there's that lobe of the TPV still over NE Canada which will fuel the northern arm of the jet to try and flatten any Atlantic ridging.

Morning all, yes 30 cm of fresh snowfall overnight and prospects not to bad for holding the cold in these parts for a while longer. Just spoken to our portal service forecast team and they remain reasonably confident that the TPV is going to relocate to NE Europe during the second half of the month and for the Scandinavian trough to drop south. Of course , the problem remains for the UK as to how much cold it can tap into and really depends on the positioning and behaviour of  the Atlantic high. Charts 10 days out can only really show a trend and not the exact synoptics. So the question is : Will the British Isles miss out completely again, be on the edge looking out or at the heart of any potential cold wave ? No experts can tell at this stage, however the longer term charts at their disposal indicate the TPV centred over the White Sea and going by past results that is a favourable position for the UK . So I will leave you with you that nice potential dose of optimism.

C

Edited January 6, 2022 by carinthian

[sheikhy]

19 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Seems the watch is for the cut off low which is present around day 5 thru 7 heading East to prop up the high on GFS but lacking depth on the ECM

Gfs will be wrong between 72 and 120 hours!!!expect a downgrade towards ecm with flatter pattern across scandi!!

[Frostbite1980]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs will be wrong between 72 and 120 hours!!!expect a downgrade towards ecm with flatter pattern across scandi!!

And why is that then? An explanation rather than a statement would be really helpful.