Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,big difference between American models and U.K. models GFS going for low pressure barrelling in of the Atlantic while ECM/UKMO bringing in high pressure drifting in from the Atlantic and eventually moving into Europe with an easterly setting up for a time with a cold air mass over the U.K. .Who will take the winning medal,my bet is on ECM/UKMO check out Fax chart 120hrs shows high pressure pushing in from the Atlantic.

[IDO]

The differences between the ECM and GFS at D6 are minor, just where the jet sits in relation to the UK. The variance appears to be a micro-feature on the ECM, a cut-off low (Bay of Biscay) supporting the high, keeping the jet further north.

ECM>GFS>

This is just a transient difference and even on the ECM that high sinks by D9 bringing in a zonal flow to the UK and milder temps. 

There are signs late in FI that there are changes with the blocking highs in the Pacific and Siberian regions. So maybe as we enter March the tPV will have more room to breath and that would be better for the Atlantic sector. So I am not persuaded that the zonal windy spell will be long lasting as per Met Office guidance, though if trop and strat PV links up then all bets are off.

[chris55]

Cold sunny and frosty from the UKMO once the cold front clears south on Wednesday into Thursday.

Should feel pleasant by day with some hard frosts by night. 

[Cambrian]

February has already brought a very different feel, with over 40mm here to this morning, including a snowy morning on Friday, compared with only 70mm and three snow events for the whole of January. What has really been noticeable though is the reawakening of the wind after so many quiet weeks. This feels much more like a normal winter, much more active, at least for a few days. 

The 6z GFS operational run persists with this much more mobile pattern for the next 10 days, though there is a considerable divergence in the models after day 5 / day 6, compared with UKMO and ECM. The GEM keeps it mobile through to day 10 too, so with the more reliable only around day 5, I’m going to look at the jet stream over the next few days.

As it oscillates north-south, there are some occasional milder periods, particularly in the south, as at 60h, with the core of the jet stream to our north.

  

And colder periods, as just two days later, at 108h, with a buckling of the jet stream, on more of a dive from Greenland, cold air spilling south over all of the UK and Ireland, with some snow in the north and west, and possible as far south as County Kerry and Pembrokeshire. So plenty more rain over the next few days and a chance for a bit more snow for some on Thursday.

   

[minus10]

So after flirting with more unsettled/stormy conditions yesterday the gfs 6z is back to southern hp  after the colder late next week/ weekend. 

Then it wants to build it north east

The only 'consistency' at present is the continuing default back to hp..although as cambrian states above next few days will feel more like a 'normal winter'

[Frosty.]

What a shame it’s so dead in here, I remember the good times when a page would fill up in 5 minutes..jeez, those were the days! …anyway, for sure the GEFS 6z shows cold zonal potential, especially further north…I wish there was a beasterly in there, but there isn’t, it is what it is but as we know, the weather has other ideas from what the models hint at further ahead so…never say never again…yikes, wasn’t that the title of a James Bond movie!  

Edited February 6, 2022 by jon snow

[Jason M]

Might get busier in a few weeks when the summer crowd start to creep back. I've not posted since Dec as tbh I just wrote the whole thing off at that point. Logically, daft to write off Jan /Feb before Xmas but like others just had that gut feeling that it would be another snowless winter for many. Still a chance I guess but I think nothing will happen. Maybe a short / sharp hit in March? but tbh looking at the charts today nothing fundamentally has changed. Looking forward to summer now 

[Frosty.]

Don’t give up guys, there’s always P2! ️ ..where there’s life there’s hope…am I right..or am I right..or am I right?… !..perhaps I should curb my enthusiasm? 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Lol..anyway, the week ahead isn’t completely mild according too the ECM 0z ensemble mean..go figure!  

..back of the net, in off the red!..    

Edited February 6, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

The Cfs doesn’t look too shabby in FI..roll on spring!  

[Ali1977]

Next Friday could offer some surprises, maybe, it’s cold so we just need some little disturbances in the flow - and possibly disturbances in the Force going off winter so far this year

[Frosty.]

There’s not much change or indeed any change in the script in the mid / longer term…my opinion of the GEFS 6z is for a predominantly north / south split with cold zonality at times, especially further north, somewhat higher pressure further s / se meaning somewhat drier and indeed milder conditions but doesn’t preclude some rain and wind at times ….I can’t see any sign of a freeze but then I’m only human..so don’t take my word for it! …… … I think; therefore I am...!  

Edited February 6, 2022 by jon snow

[Cambrian]

12z UKMO shows the high pressure for the end of the week moving in from the west across the south on day 5, trapping some cold air underneath it, so a couple of sharp frosts likely. 
 

The high is transient though, centred over Poland by day 7, as a low darts southeastwards from southern Greenland to between Scotland and Iceland and brings the Atlantic back, with another wave of chilly polar maritime air entrained.

 

By day 8, you’d fancy that low to be somewhere between Scotland and Norway, and with the Azores high staying flattened to the south, nothing much to stop another northwesterly blast for the UK and Ireland. 

Generally changeable, a brief lull for a couple of days and whether dry or wet, chilly throughout after day 3. A good trend, high pressure squeezed to the south by the PV with ample supplies of colder air wrapping around passing depressions. Interesting to follow, a lot better than last month, and with just a further slight adjustment south, February could well hold a few wintry surprises more widely. 

[Frosty.]

I wouldn’t mind high pressure close to March later in the Gfs 12z operational!, a good time to tap the barometer!…yet another complete failure of a winter for coldies to add to all the others..pfft…roll on the longer days, higher sun  and England cricket..on second thoughts, forget the cricket..can’t stomach another England batting collapse!

 

 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,UKMO the pick of the bunch on the 12z keeping the U.K. under chilly air with the Atlantic high holding on and still influencing the U.K. after drifting east into Europe.Further out into fantasy island mixed signals,so nothing certain regarding low or high pressure ruling the roost.

[mb018538]

 

Bye bye winter 2021/22….nice knowing ya

[snowray]

GFS 12z big outlier at around D10, still a dogs chance for late February maybe.

 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

 

Bye bye winter 2021/22….nice knowing ya

If anything, the PV is getting more organised than it has been all "Winter".

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

If anything, the PV is getting more organised than it has been all "Winter".

Could be a wild start to March if this continues... as we know these patterns can bed in for a while. I wonder if charts like the one below might be standard into next month.

 

[Don]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

 

Bye bye winter 2021/22….nice knowing ya

What winter?! 

Not sure one could draw a poorer chart for cold wintry weather!

[Mark Smithy]

Not sure from where the Daily Star are getting their meteorology. A part-time tarot reader perhaps?

The way it looks at the moment in the models, there be some cold zonality but unless you're on northern hills or Scotland this kind of pattern is often alternating mild with blowy fresh. Much like the last few days.

Things may change but there are 3 weeks of official winter left, although March can often be cold with snow potential.

Daily Star Front Page 7th of February 2022 - Tomorrow's Papers Today!

WWW.TOMORROWSPAPERS.CO.UK

---

The Daily Star writes that a 1,500-mile wide snowstorm will hit the UK on Valentine's Day. 

[Ukwoody]

It makes me mad, idiot papers like the Star.

 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM this morning has a cold 3 day snap from high pressure with cold air circulation around it being pushed into Europe by low pressure in the Atlantic.Possibly followed by changeable Atlantic weather with chilly versus mild temperatures fluctuating.

[mb018538]

A much more unsettled outlook after this week is up, and the end to the very long quiet and dry spell of weather for many. A rampant strat polar vortex is finally going to couple at trop level and really drive a strong +NAO pattern.



With the main storm track looking like just staying to our north, southern and eastern areas still not overly wet. NW Scotland/NW England and W Wales looking pretty wet, especially over higher ground. Pretty windy at times. Temps closer to average in the south, cooler in the north.

[Penrith Snow]

After looking at this mornings runs if anything it's going the wrong way!

After a brief cold ridge both ECM and GFS bring in a strong zonal flow from Day 8 with intense high pressure over Iberia and deep lows around Iceland, this produces an ever increasing positive NAO which goes off the charts by the middle of next week.

Some cold zonality like yesterday is possible but the emphasis will be on mild and in increasingly unsettled weather if all this verifies.

I would imagine it will be March now before the PV weakens and to be honest winter 2022 is dead in the water.

Andy