Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Dangerous55019]

At long, long last we’ve had some very much welcome rain here this morning!! 🌧

Sorry, morning everyone.

I see that the U.K. Meto have just updated their thunderstorm warning for today! Amazingly my area is in it!! 🌩
 

The way this year has been, I very much doubt anything will kick off, being as it so cool and cloudy, but it’s still nice to see some potential. 🌩⛈

As always, good luck to everyone with this today. 🌩⛈

[SilverWolf]

For what it’s worth, clouds are thinning well here… they were fairly heavy and dark earlier, now the sun is nearly visibly though them.. 

[StormLoser]

Hmm, confused set of models for today. Three different forecasts!  I've got my eye on the Channel developments but currently they are drying as they move north.  Meanwhile, the sun is out here, and clouds are clearing so we have some ground heating in progress. Quite a pleasant morning, actually, after the 40c (on my weather thermometer) we had on Tuesday!

I'll wait and watch, and rain is badly needed anyway in our tumbleweed-filled garden.

[Tamsin]

1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

Hmm, confused set of models for today. Three different forecasts!  I've got my eye on the Channel developments but currently they are drying as they move north....

I'm feeling positive about that stuff in the channel right now. Probably Jinxed it

[StormLoser]

3 minutes ago, Tamsin said:

I'm feeling positive about that stuff in the channel right now. Probably Jinxed it

Let's hope not! Watch as any developments split to go either side of Reigate. That's what always happens for me!

[Eagle Eye]

More from Tuesday's thunderstorm.

Some photos that I managed to get off my camera that I haven't shared here before from June.

[Harry]

13 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Let's hope not! Watch as any developments split to go either side of Reigate. That's what always happens for me!

Those storms are meant to swing eastwards with time, although the MUCAPE chart @Nick F posted earlier suggests instability could be a bit more widespread than other models have suggested.

I would say based on observations risk is <30% for the London region....hoping I'm wrong  

[Biggin]

FF the radar a couple of hours and a direct hit on London

[Turquoise]

storms for the central south coast? check.

storms for the London/Kent area? check.

storms absolutely nowhere else? check.

[Chris K]

3 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

storms for the central south coast? check.

storms for the London/Kent area? check.

storms absolutely nowhere else? check.

Some showers are developing across parts of Wales and SW England now too. Some isolated storms may trigger later from these.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Chris K

[Turquoise]

1 minute ago, Chris K said:

Some showers are developing across parts of Wales and SW England now too. Some isolated storms may trigger later from these.

they wont mate. They never do. 

They all gonna go east anyway along the south coast and may trigger there as its always a copy and paste job

[Chris.R]

Small chance of something up here today if any of the showers in Wales can survive long enough to reach this far north. Flow is quite weak though so I’m not holding my breath. Also not much CAPE showing. you never know though.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

16 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

storms for the central south coast? check.

storms for the London/Kent area? check.

storms absolutely nowhere else? check.

Nothing making it into london yet

[karyo]

Clouding over now in Brighton as those heavy showers from the channel are approaching. 

[Row w]

On 21/07/2022 at 08:52, Robbie Garrett said:

Whilst I don't disagree, I don't think the last 3 years are guaranteed to be our future.   Earths climate is so volatile, and I think we will experience cooler and wetter months and years soon. 

A rise in temperatures in theory should make storms more violent, it has not.   We've just more settled weather, more sunshine and tapped into more settled heat rather than explosive storms.

I'm not sure if this correct but could it possibly be due to the fact the climate/atmosphere on average is now warmer thus not so much of a temperature difference when a cold front meets a plume of hot air resulting in a non explosive breakdown as regards to storms. 

[Row w]

Currently a yellow weather warning in place for T.storms across this area noticing the sun is starting to come out so hopefully will build the convection, also feeling rather humid

[Justin1705]

1 hour ago, Biggin said:

FF the radar a couple of hours and a direct hit on London

Fast forward 2 hours and it just made Margate lol

[Biggin]

36 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Nothing making it into london yet

Check the radar, now inside the M25

[Biggin]

27 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Check the radar, now inside the M25

 

[alexisj9]

46 minutes ago, Row w said:

I'm not sure if this correct but could it possibly be due to the fact the climate/atmosphere on average is now warmer thus not so much of a temperature difference when a cold front meets a plume of hot air resulting in a non explosive breakdown as regards to storms. 

Not sure perhaps.

[MP-R]

I can confirm... light drizzle.

[karyo]

Raining in Brighton but no thunder. 

 

[Biggin]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

I can confirm... light drizzle.

[MrNooo]

2 hours ago, SteveB said:

Is cloud not going to inhibit storm potential today? Very cloudy here at the moment!

Cloud broken up here, Cu in evidence and temp rising

[Electricmumma]

Am away from home at the moment so any updates will be “on the run” Raining in uckfield briefly, some heavy convective drops.