Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[kold weather]

20 minutes ago, Paul said:

What's concerning & extraordinary in equal measure is that the UKV is peaking the heat at 40c ish on Monday currently, whereas the MOGREPS is peaking it in the mid-thirties. On Tuesday, the MOGREPS is up much closer to 40c. You have to wonder what the UKV will show for it when it updates this evening and Tuesday comes into range. 

  

For those who may have missed it a few days back, we now have the MOGREPS and Hir-Res ECM ensembles available on the site:

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/mogreps

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf-ensembles

 

Given UKMO had pretty much 25c at 850 for 12z Tuesday and allowing a very warm night, I'd expect it to show 41-42c, something crazy like that.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

OP run would be fine as it stays above 20c all day, but the mean declines from 20 down to 18c during Tuesday, so it would be a couple of degrees lower than UKMO, which has higher 850 temps. Maybe skewed by some more aggressive runs that sweep the heat away during daytime hours.

so from the ecm mean..does it show the heat allday tuesday?

[Man With Beard]

I'm satisfied that Monday is now a cert - model agreement on the general pattern is extensive. Maximum on that day I'm seeing as between 35C and 37C.

The entire ECM ensemble set gives little grounds for 38C or more on Monday so I don't think we'll get to the record on that particular day, in spite of what other models say.

[eastangliawx]

Wetterzentrale view of ecm ensembles:

Only 4 drop 850s during Tuesday day by my count

[Summer Sun]

20 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What Temperatures can we expect for next Monday/Tuesday in Cornwall?

According to UKMO Monday upper 20s to low 30s inland then much fresher Tuesday with no higher than 20c

[TEITS]

I am dreading Mon/Tues especially due to the health impacts it will have on my mother. I have been following the potential record breaking temps for nearly 2 weeks now and intially I was rather dismissive of temps 40C or above. However the chances of hitting 40C are looking very possible with the most likely hotspots being Cambs, Lincs.

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm satisfied that Monday is now a cert - model agreement on the general pattern is extensive. Maximum on that day I'm seeing as between 35C and 37C.

The entire ECM ensemble set gives little grounds for 38C or more on Monday so I don't think we'll get to the record on that particular day, in spite of what other models say.

Brave call just because of ECM!

I think it's at least 50:50 that the record goes on Monday. And then again on Tuesday,

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Brave call just because of ECM!

I think it's at least 50:50 that the record goes on Monday. And then again on Tuesday,

I agree, I think when you've got a pretty strong grouping of models going hotter than the ECM on Monday itd be a brave person to rule them out over the ECM just because of the resembles which have often been on the low side in recent times anyway.

Especially as we know ECM has a bias for being to slow lifting out cutoff upper lows, probably means its being you slow introducing the heat as well.

In the subtropics the quicker models usually are right with these features, and ECM gets caught out in hurricane forecasts usually due to this bias. Its very good model but that is one flaw for sure.

Edited July 14, 2022 by kold weather

[Lukesluckybunch]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Brave call just because of ECM!

I think it's at least 50:50 that the record goes on Monday. And then again on Tuesday,

but ECM is best performing model

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

but ECM is best performing model

It is overall - doesn't mean it's right every time though.

It's slightly on it's own with other models (GFS/UKMO) being 3-4c higher for Mon/Tue. I guess the only thing to do is wait and see! 

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

but ECM is best performing model

Yes it is but we’re talking micro now rather than macro 

we have pretty strong x model agreement on this - the detail on a degree or so here and there causing debate. we won’t have a handle on that for a few more runs yet.  if Tuesday continues to look rock solid across all models without any disagreement on those T2maxes then it seems the record will go then anyway. We don’t have to set it twice! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Monday and Tuesday still have some more runs to resolve how hot it will go. I think we should have some consensus on Monday by this time tomorrow (I suspect the experts will want this as wanting updates will be needed before the weekend).

Sunday is pretty stable in terms of conditions with the maximum temperature remaining the same for several runs across the whole suite.

 

I suspect that Ireland might just about get its first 30c of the year. Probably 32c the high across central England but very warm everywhere except for western Scotland where there will still be fronts close enough to bring more cloud and a little rain.

[clark3r]

BBC have Heathrow down for 39 on Tuesday now, met office 38, confidence for record breaking heat increases, still time for changes though, but big increase increases in chance since yesterday 

[sheikhy]

My god ive just woken up and i didnt expect to see further upgrades!!thats ecm and ukmo and gfs giving me 38 39 degrees monday and close to 40 tuesday!!!im not gona bother with ecm temp charts cos normally 3 degrees too low!!so add 3 degrees to ecm temps and we looking at same values as gfs/ukmo!!make the most of this fresher air as the army of heat gathers just to the south of us as we speak!!

[Captain Shortwave]

06z

00z

The core of the heat is a couple of degrees higher on the 06z at the end of the run. Maxima on Monday look to be above 36c.

[Methuselah]

I've just checked the NW app whatsit, and it has me down for 39C on Monday; that's a full 5C hotter than anything I've ever experienced!

I wonder which model that's all based on!

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've just checked the NW app whatsit, and it has me down for 39C on Monday; that's a full 5C hotter than anything I've ever experienced!

I wonder which model that's all based on!

The Netweather 7 day forecast has my location for 38C on Monday, which will surely blow the record here to kingdom come?!!  Not sure what the previous record is but I would have thought no more than 34 or 35C.  This upcoming heatwave sure looks to be an eye opener!! 

[Earthshine]

40°C surely being broken if UKV is correct.  Uppers of 23°C are more than enough considering how dry the airmass is (so we should get closer to an dry adiabat) as well as any heating closer to the surface.  Those thicknesses are insane too, The Grill from Seville truly!

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

The Netweather 7 day forecast has my location for 38C on Monday, which will surely blow the record here to kingdom come?!!  Not sure what the previous record is but I would have thought no more than 34 or 35C.  This upcoming heatwave sure looks to be an eye opener!! 

With any luck, it'll open a few brains too!

Meanwhile, I've just been perusing the BBC app -- 30C -- though, from experience, NW's forecast temps are usually nearer the mark. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Djdazzle]

36 minutes ago, clark3r said:

BBC have Heathrow down for 39 on Tuesday now, met office 38, confidence for record breaking heat increases, still time for changes though, but big increase increases in chance since yesterday 

Never seen a temperature of 39C on these apps.

[h2005__uk__]

22 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Never seen a temperature of 39C on these apps.

Neither have I. The WeatherPro app (run by MeteoGroup who also supply the BBC with forecasts) is now going for 40C in London on Tuesday.

[Battleground Snow]

47 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

06z

00z

The core of the heat is a couple of degrees higher on the 06z at the end of the run. Maxima on Monday look to be above 36c.

GFS 6z bringing in the extreme uppers in faster too... May show a 40 later on in this run for Monday.

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS 6z bringing in the extreme uppers in faster too... May show a 40 later on in this run for Monday.

Low is a bit further south so the heat should hold on a little longer on this run.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

GFS 6z bringing in the extreme uppers in faster too... May show a 40 later on in this run for Monday.

Also a move towards ecm in terms of the cut off low!!its slightly further south!could be a crazy one!!

Just now, MattStoke said:

Low is a bit further south so the heat should hold on a little longer on this run.

Great minds think alike!just mentioned the same thing!!

[MattStoke]

Wow. Just wow.