Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Captain Shortwave]

Tomorrow 

GFS - 41c widespread from Cambridgeshire, Norfolk to well North of the Humber.

Arpege - 40c widespread in the same region

ICON - 40c but more scattered

UKV - 41c

A very good chance 40c will be reached tomorrow. 

 

 

[Mark Smithy]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Tomorrow 

GFS - 41c widespread from Cambridgeshire, Norfolk to well North of the Humber.

Arpege - 40c widespread in the same region

ICON - 40c but more scattered

UKV - 41c

A very good chance 40c will be reached tomorrow. 

 

 

Yep the temp record is going to be obliterated tomorrow

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Tomorrow 

GFS - 41c widespread from Cambridgeshire, Norfolk to well North of the Humber.

Arpege - 40c widespread in the same region

ICON - 40c but more scattered

UKV - 41c

A very good chance 40c will be reached tomorrow. 

 

 

What about east mids mate?!last i checked it had 39 40 degrees widely between 12 and 3!!

[A Face like Thunder]

41C at Worksop tomorrow (BBC)

[Captain Shortwave]

14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What about east mids mate?!last i checked it had 39 40 degrees widely between 12 and 3!!

Looking at the Arpege, I think you are fine. Eastern England will remain very hot into the even whilst western areas cool off during the late afternoon.

 

Wouldn't rule out a 41c in the middle of that zone.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Looking at the Arpege, I think you are fine. Eastern England will remain very hot into the even whilst western areas cool off during the late afternoon.

 

Wouldn't rule out a 41c in the middle of that zone.

Last i checked all models you mentioned above had 39+ easily across england as far as east wales!!

[tight isobar]

I’m waiting in “anticipation “.. for member supporting this evening!.. the cut off @dropped low.. is literally a trigger- or holding point!.. and the ACE in the pack for eventual evolution.. the mass AZHP ridge is by now compacting it’s process- probability. A quicker decline.. or a stabilisation... will make MASSIVE differentiations-for our island @uk - going forward.

Edited July 18, 2022 by tight isobar

[Liquid]

Greeting all from Southern Scotland, Dumfries hit 30 today, but only 24 where i am.  Amazed how dry the air is though which makes a change from the usual sultry heat.

 

Stay well and safe all

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Reasonable agreement on a ridge building this coming weekend, the GEM probably most optimistic in terms of warmth for Sunday.

 

Enough amplification and 30c could be quite possible.
 

 

 

[Polaris]

U.K. still can’t manage a clear sky on one of the hottest days. 
 

Meanwhile in France 

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Reasonable agreement on a ridge building this coming weekend, the GEM probably most optimistic in terms of warmth for Sunday.

 

Enough amplification and 30c could be quite possible.
 

 

 

The featured base Icelandic low- could actually act as trace point of AZHP levelling. And/ or juice teasing wave signal. The Atlantic has NO back punching off- of the US seaboard... And seems to put it’s gloves up .. then invite “ what I believe is inevitable”..

Edited July 18, 2022 by tight isobar

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS is still going for 41C tomorrow across quite a wide area, but I reckon that the GFS (and UKV, which has similar temperatures) are overdoing it a little.  The GFS predictions for today were generally 1 to 2C too high, so I expect that highs in the belt of eastern England from the SE up to south Yorkshire will mostly be between 38 and 40C.  I think there's a fair chance of a UK record being set that lies somewhere between 40 and 41C.  If more convective cloud bubbles up than expected then we could still fall a little short of 40C, but with potential for a localised föhn effect to take place with southerly breezes, it's also not inconceivable that one or two spots could get above 41C.

[Scorcher]

8 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

The GFS predictions for today were generally 1 to 2C too high

Personally I think the only reason for that was the timing of the hottest air moving in- it was slightly slower than anticipated. For example in this area the morning was actually quite cool- we didn't reach 25C until about 10.30.

That is not going to be an issue tomorrow and the heat is going to build much earlier in the day.

I think the GFS is going to be closer than the ECM tomorrow without a doubt.

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Personally I think the only reason for that was the timing of the hottest air moving in- it was slightly slower than anticipated. For example in this area the morning was actually quite cool- we didn't reach 25C until about 10.30.

That is not going to be an issue tomorrow and the heat is going to build much earlier in the day.

I think the GFS is going to be closer than the ECM tomorrow without a doubt.

Most hi resolution models are going for 40c across a wide area tomorrow. These were models that never wanted 40c today (Arpege was pretty spot on since a day or so back). So seeing these models essentially give close to a 41c maxima means there is pretty good confidence that we will see these values tomorrow (Unless something scuppers this of course).

Edited July 18, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[tight isobar]

A joker in the pack.. but the kings and queens are are raising their games!!@ ...??

[BenFreeman_91]

12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A joker in the pack.. but the kings and queens are are raising their games!!@ ...??

Is the likelihood increasing of a further warm / hot spell? 

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, BenFreeman_91 said:

Is the likelihood increasing of a further warm / hot spell? 

Hopefully not. The vast majority of people in the country won’t be enjoying this and will be wanting more normal temperatures to occur. You just can’t do anything other than sit around indoors. 

Thankfully the models are going for a much more pleasant wind direction. 

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, BenFreeman_91 said:

Is the likelihood increasing of a further warm / hot spell? 

Imo yes!! Not as dramatic.. but nonetheless notable in comparison to rolling standards.

[bluearmy]

Regarding tomorrow afternoon - gfs has uppers around 25c whereas ec is no higher than 23. That could account for at least one degree of the difference! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Reasonable agreement on a ridge building this coming weekend, the GEM probably most optimistic in terms of warmth for Sunday.

 

Enough amplification and 30c could be quite possible.
 

 

 

Now this is what I've been thinking for a couple of days now. Its interesting to note the met are talking about more unsettled conditions this weekend from the West before a build of Heights towards the South come midweek! I'm thinking the mets current thoughts could be delayed or not quite make it at all...especially away from more Western parts.

[mb018538]

All about cloud cover tomorrow. More of it about than forecast, it’ll be a race with the clearer slot in the east and the advancing cloud bank from the west.

[blizzard81]

On 15/07/2022 at 23:53, Scott Ingham said:

deal..... you didnt specify washed or not...

I was going to say 'used' socks ha ha. However, it looks like you are in the clear barring a catastrophe. Good call mate

[Stormchaser17]

From the latest WRF 12z, a warm night tonight for many, especially inside the heat islands of the larger cities.

From the same run, temperatures above +40°C are still in the forecast from N Yorkshire all the way down to Cambridgeshire for tomorrow afternoon, while the Western portions should be just a tad cooler (but not much in some locations).

Edited July 18, 2022 by Stormchaser17

[ShinyDave]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

All about cloud cover tomorrow. More of it about than forecast, it’ll be a race with the clearer slot in the east and the advancing cloud bank from the west.

If that's the kind of setup we get, possible that we get the history-rewriting temperatures in a smaller area while the cloud keeps a lid on things outside that area?

[mb018538]

Looking a bit warm again on Sunday on the ecm…might only be a few days off from the heat before another quick blast if this is right.