Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It shows how good this Summer as been when Chris above as not really had a moan at all...Good on ya lad I'm proud of ya   

Like he points out the GFS 6Z is an absolute peach if you want a continuation of summary conditions..It looks to me after a slight blip this week the run up towards Bank Holiday gets better and better,and this pattern could be in control for some time. When will this pattern break? 

I'm shocked by my surroundings today...theres some strange stuff in the sky and I'm not used to it

Seriously though its bliss for a cooler day today and very much welcome by many  

Edited August 15, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Guest]

35C next Thursday on the 12Z GFS.....

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I said several weeks back about several bites at the cherry regarding Heat...well this looks like the every growing bites at the cherry....we r gonna need a bigger fruit...perhaps a grapefruit

Gorra feeling @jon snow is gonna be bigging this up before much longer and @tight isobaris Gonna be saying I told ya so only joking mate.

Edited August 15, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I said several weeks back about several bites at the cherry regarding Heat...well this looks like the every growing bites at the cherry....we r gonna need a bigger fruit...perhaps a grapefruit

The only real saving grace for those that don't like the heat is that Europe is SOOO dry now there's absolutely no humidity to advect in. Normally that set-up would be 20C DPs. 

In the South for next week GFS has

Wed 33C

Thurs 35C

Fri 35C

Sat 35C (edit 37C)

Edited August 15, 2022 by Alderc

[MattStoke]

Pluming ‘eck, GFS!

Synoptically at least, it does look very like what the ECM 42 model showed for next week.

[weirpig]

The gfs keeps summer chugging along  baking in the south next week   seems no end to this wonderful summer for some 

[seb]

Whaaaaat is GFS doing?!!!? 

[CoxR]

This GFS run is utterly crazy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

35C next Thursday on the 12Z GFS.....

 

settle for that! heat is where it belongs!

[seb]

That’s 6 days in excess of 30 degrees, 3 days touching 35. Starting from 24 Aug.

[damianslaw]

I'm binning the GFS 12z as a rogue run, nonsensical, nothing about it is plausible long term.. no jetstream whatsoever. How it kills the jet early next week and evaporates what is quite a deep low over Iceland is suspect, thereafter its just bizarre.

Edited August 15, 2022 by damianslaw

[sheikhy]

Next meaningful rainfall seems to be from the ukmo for sunday monday!!lets see if this one comes off!!

[seb]

Just now, damianslaw said:

I'm binning the GFS 12z as a rogue run, nonsensical, nothing about if is plausible long term.. no jetstream whatsoever. How it kills the jet early next week and evaporates what is quite a deep low over Iceland is suspect, thereafter its just bizarre.

Yeah that’s what many of us said in July and then again 3 weeks ago…….

[Guest]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

I'm binning the GFS 12z as a rogue run, nonsensical, nothing about if is plausible long term.. no jetstream whatsoever. How it kills the jet early next week and evaporates what is quite a deep low over Iceland is suspect, thereafter its just bizarre.

It was similar to 06Z run and quite a few of those ensembles were almost identical to the 12Z run. Still its going to well into the upper quartile of ensembles, however as we've seen several times already those run have been the ones to come off. 

Welcome to the summer of the future (just now)

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm binning the GFS 12z as a rogue run, nonsensical, nothing about it is plausible long term.. no jetstream whatsoever. How it kills the jet early next week and evaporates what is quite a deep low over Iceland is suspect, thereafter its just bizarre.

It’s in line with the longer term models and the signal that has been showing on the model suites for days. May be extreme but not in plausible, otherwise it wouldn’t show at all.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

It’s in line with the longer term models and the signal that has been showing on the model suites for days. May be extreme but not in plausible, otherwise it wouldn’t show at all.

I'd like to pinpoint where the jet would be on those charts, high pressure everywhere.. can't see where it would be. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Horror birthday likely for me? GFS 384 goes out to the day before, 396 would be horrid

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm binning the GFS 12z as a rogue run, nonsensical, nothing about it is plausible long term.. no jetstream whatsoever. How it kills the jet early next week and evaporates what is quite a deep low over Iceland is suspect, thereafter its just bizarre.

Not really that nonsensical though is it..the Jet stream as been dead in the water for a long time...let's see if it gets ens support before binning it.

[clark3r]

Here we go again for next week onwards south east low to mid 30s very warm nights, one run, but last few from gfs has shown hints, plus ECM if this comes of any rain we get before that will be pointless as it will all dry up, one of the greatest summers this is turning into 

[seb]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'd like to pinpoint where the jet would be on those charts, high pressure everywhere.. can't see where it would be. 

The Jetstream weakens and once again splits as per the study I posted a week or so ago. It splits and goes north of us and the Nordics and the other half goes into Southern Europe towards Turkey.

Same setup as countless times since last autumn.

It’s very visible on the 850 anoms.

Edited August 15, 2022 by seb

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Not really that nonsensical though is it..the Jet stream as been dead in the water for a long time...let's see if it gets ens support before binning it.

I can see the slightest of trough features I guess in mid Atlantic, but exceptionally weak. Just wonder what factors are triggering such a rapid rise in pressure after the temporary injection of lower heights and strengthened jet later this week.. surely needs a major trigger of sorts, it is suddenness of said change that has me questioning it.. the overall theme of a settling down I'm not questioning it's the extent of it I'm dubious on. A split jet would do it I guess. 

Edited August 15, 2022 by damianslaw

[Guest]

Given its late summer, i'd say the GFS 12Z Ops run is up there with some of that crazy output from a month ago when it was spitting out 42-44C at times. Would also likely lead to a challenge of the Sept all time max (which to me always seemed a bit dodgy) 

[seb]

Make that 8 days >30 degrees. On 5 days significantly >30 degrees.

Madness.

[jamesthemonkeh]

The ECM00 also showed hot air trying to push up from Spain by next Thursday.

I certainly won't be discounting the GFS 12z.

[Met.]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Horror birthday likely for me? GFS 384 goes out to the day before, 396 would be horrid

Wait... we have the same birthday? August 31st always seems to be notably cold where I live. I think the only warm one I remember was in Spain!