Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Home now after the distant sferics have gone more north, nothing too spectacular to see with the cell cores being some 60 miles away but the flashes were still evident with a single bright one lightning up the whole cloud. Hopefully more of that a bit closer to home over the next 2 days.

Caught the lightning on my timelapse overnight

 

[philglossop]

Well it’s going out with a whimper here.  Cloudy and no signs of thunder…

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Errrr WTF  I've never experienced a storm like this and at 6am.  The rain is so heavy you can't even see it I know that might sound weird but honestly and house shaking booms 

 

[DeepSnow]

Im hoping for something today or tomorrow but feeling it might be unlikely here - showing rain on the radar here but nothing is falling.

[BrickFielder]

I see a few discussions about supercells in the last day and thought a simple explanation might help. If winds change direction as you go up in the atmosphere then clouds will have a tendency to twist as air rises. If winds at a low level are light and winds increase with height then louds will tilt along with the higher winds aloft. Tilting will separate updraft and downdraft regions  and the twisting will rotate the cloud giving a supercell. If winds at the surface are very light and higher at the cloud base level  then winds will tend to have a rolling barrel effect below the cloud. This rolling or horizontal vorticity can be picked up by a twisting updraft region to form a tornado. This is very rare in the UK but not so rare in Europe hence why Estofex alerts tend to happen more in Europe.

As for today then the models would suggest storms for the west , east and north but not central areas.

Upper level cooling is not really there like yesterday  for Northern parts so maybe not as high a risk of severe storms although I notice some model anomalies.

 

Looking at Satellite images then I see a frontal system moving eastward across parts of the west with embedded storms. That front seems to be moving faster than forecast so I am not totally convinced by modelling of where and when storms will occur. 

 

 

Tomorrow is a different scenario with a frontal system turning  thundery across Wales and central areas through the afternoon. Upper level cooling is better but the atmosphere profile has a tendency to be moist all the way up to the troposphere so there is a risk of very messy convection.

Think radar watching might be a better option at this point.

 

[viking_smb]

13 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

I see a few discussions about supercells in the last day and thought a simple explanation might help. If winds change direction as you go up in the atmosphere then clouds will have a tendency to twist as air rises. If winds at a low level are light and winds increase with height then louds will tilt along with the higher winds aloft. Tilting will separate updraft and downdraft regions  and the twisting will rotate the cloud giving a supercell. If winds at the surface are very light and higher at the cloud base level  then winds will tend to have a rolling barrel effect below the cloud. This rolling or horizontal vorticity can be picked up by a twisting updraft region to form a tornado. This is very rare in the UK but not so rare in Europe hence why Estofex alerts tend to happen more in Europe.

As for today then the models would suggest storms for the west , east and north but not central areas.

Upper level cooling is not really there like yesterday  for Northern parts so maybe not as high a risk of severe storms although I notice some model anomalies.

 

Looking at Satellite images then I see a frontal system moving eastward across parts of the west with embedded storms. That front seems to be moving faster than forecast so I am not totally convinced by modelling of where and when storms will occur. 

 

 

Tomorrow is a different scenario with a frontal system turning  thundery across Wales and central areas through the afternoon. Upper level cooling is better but the atmosphere profile has a tendency to be moist all the way up to the troposphere so there is a risk of very messy convection.

Think radar watching might be a better option at this point.

 

Brickfielder, could you please explain the skew T chart,  as I like many others perhaps have difficulty understanding it. as i looked on the net but not very helpful with diagrams. many thanks  

[Gonzolio Martinez]

Mid levels looking unstable here this morning. Hope this is a sign of things to come.

[Supacell]

Skies look very pre-storm here but forecasts are not that promising. However, there is much uncertainty. Do I stay at home or do I go out? What must a man do in these uncertain times

[Arnie Pie]

An un-manned stream for today`s potential 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyW1mL_9HxE

 

[BugboyMike]

22 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Skies look very pre-storm here but forecasts are not that promising. However, there is much uncertainty. Do I stay at home or do I go out? What must a man do in these uncertain times

I actually think storms could pop up pretty much anywhere today, so staying at home will atleast save on the petrol. Its a radar watch day, skies are certainly showing storm potential.

[Row w]

Looking rather dark and ominous to my S/W

[ChannelThunder]

Today's storms are going to be very hit-and-miss, as is often the case in the UK. Don't be too disheartened if you don't get anything, as the majority won't. 

I'm mostly just hoping for rain at long last. This weak band of it coming in from the west had better not die out before it gets here!

[Harry]

Feels a little more humid today and there are pleasing signs in the sky. Haven’t seen these pups for some time

Edited August 15, 2022 by Harry

[laddie]

Up to 26c by 9.30 and starting to look interesting west of Peterborough 

[Liam Burge]

Had a bit of rain already today and not expecting to see much else, however I do believe around the Exeter area is the sweet spot for storms today. Tomorrow is a more widespread risk for storms though.

[matty40s]

If I was Oklahoma I would be chasing...(my tail probably)

[Liam Burge]

The yellow thunderstorm warning for tomorrow was just updated to increase the likelihood from 'Very low' to 'Low'.

[TallPaul]

Warm and humid, 'smells' thundery. Current skyline looking out s/west...

[Puddy Galore]

56 minutes ago, Row w said:

Looking rather dark and ominous to my S/W

Rain, albeit a few drops, has been reported in Bridgnorth but across here the evil daystar is doing its level best to poke its nosey unwelcome nose in proceedings yet again.  Rain and storms seem all around us but, other than a light shower, it isn’t looking good for my area in most forecasts

 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Not out chasing today as don't feel risk is high enough, but target for me would be N Devon. Combination of wind convergence and orographic lifting (Exmoor) could result in a train of thunderstorms developing and could lead to some (possibly severe) flash flooding. Think tomorrow will produce more widespread activity across England & Wales. Wednesday looking confined to far S & SE England atm.

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 hours ago, viking_smb said:

Brickfielder, could you please explain the skew T chart,  as I like many others perhaps have difficulty understanding it. as i looked on the net but not very helpful with diagrams. many thanks  

This is one of the better sites I've seen: https://weathertogether.net/weather-101/how-to-read-skew-t-charts/

[Liam Burge]

17 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Not out chasing today as don't feel risk is high enough, but target for me would be N Devon. Combination of wind convergence and orographic lifting (Exmoor) could result in a train of thunderstorms developing and could lead to some (possibly severe) flash flooding. Think tomorrow will produce more widespread activity across England & Wales. Wednesday looking confined to far S & SE England atm.

Will you chase tomorrow? Also, if possible, where do you think the highest risk is for tomorrow?

[JR319]

Isolated showers starting to develop across Northamptonshire and Leicestershire now. 

[ancientsolar]

The initial band of rain shown on the radar would suggest that it has been raining for 3-4 hours in South Wales -- 
A lot of it has quickly evaporated when hit the ground, - and a lot of it hasn't hit the ground at all and the pavement is only 60% ish covered with rain drops, 
It is very humid today, not really seeing anything out the window that screams potential.

Looking further west toward Swansea on the radar, looks like some limited potential, -- perhaps like yesterday some storms will hit over the valleys and toward Brecon later on (?)

[sheikhy]

Can confirm we have rain here in south leicestershire!!after bloody ages!!nothing major but its rain lol!!currrently 26 degrees!!