Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[AndyTee]

Image looking west (ish) from the Office!

[Skullzrulerz]

Why are we so unlucky

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The accumulated radar totals from Cornwall are already concerning. Spot totals over 100mm already in places. Unfortunately I'm expecting to see isolated severe flash floods, could be some concerning images in the next hour or two.

I was just having a gander at that myself..

3 hour accumulations:

[Gordon Webb]

8 hours ago, BrickFielder said:

I see a few discussions about supercells in the last day and thought a simple explanation might help. If winds change direction as you go up in the atmosphere then clouds will have a tendency to twist as air rises. If winds at a low level are light and winds increase with height then louds will tilt along with the higher winds aloft. Tilting will separate updraft and downdraft regions  and the twisting will rotate the cloud giving a supercell. If winds at the surface are very light and higher at the cloud base level  then winds will tend to have a rolling barrel effect below the cloud. This rolling or horizontal vorticity can be picked up by a twisting updraft region to form a tornado. This is very rare in the UK but not so rare in Europe hence why Estofex alerts tend to happen more in Europe.

As for today then the models would suggest storms for the west , east and north but not central areas.

Upper level cooling is not really there like yesterday  for Northern parts so maybe not as high a risk of severe storms although I notice some model anomalies.

 

Looking at Satellite images then I see a frontal system moving eastward across parts of the west with embedded storms. That front seems to be moving faster than forecast so I am not totally convinced by modelling of where and when storms will occur. 

 

 

Tomorrow is a different scenario with a frontal system turning  thundery across Wales and central areas through the afternoon. Upper level cooling is better but the atmosphere profile has a tendency to be moist all the way up to the troposphere so there is a risk of very messy convection.

Think radar watching might be a better option at this point.

 

like reading your posts always informative and as for tomorrow are we looking like more larger areas of thundery rain in the afternoon rather than shall i say more discrete showers\storms because of front or is that a simplistic way of looking at it

oh and anybody feel free to answer

Edited August 15, 2022 by Never On Topic

[sparky1972]

Well a few mins of heavy rain, a cpl of flashes of lightening and a few rumbles of thunder signal the end of the hot spell, lol. 

[Thunderstruck]

Thunder very loud now, got some light rain too but I think the heaviest is falling pointlessly into the Thames

[Justin1705]

27 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Humidity is only 30% in Luton?

really does not stop it being muggy tho. its 33c down here whilst your 25c

[TJS1998Tom]

I can see the dark clouds from that storm to our East but nothing here today it seems unless cooling later sparks anything

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

really does not stop it being muggy tho. its 33c down here whilst your 25c

Yes, the definition of muggy is 'unpleasantly warm and humid, relative humidities in the 20-30% in high twenties temperatures is not muggy. Doesn't mean its not warm though.

[Cornish_Geo]

16 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Why are we so unlucky

I'm sat working around St Dennis and has been pumping all day

[swebby]

Some very impressive wind shear on the the storm over Exeter, clouds going in every direction possible at some rate of knots with what looks like rotation to my untrained eye.  Rolling thunder (cloud-cloud, no flashes) for the past 40 mins.

[TJS1998Tom]

Looking at the storm that's about 10 or 15 miles away. Shame its not dark as you'd see distant lightning no doubt 

[harrywhiterowoutdoors]

A little CG from the devon somerset storm 

[Somerset girl]

Stuck on the A30 near Exeter with torrential rain .

Lighting all around  should be clearer going up M5 if the radar is right.

 

[DeepSnow]

Shame the storm over the SW is dying out before getting to South Wales, knowing my luck we will get a storm here when I'm working 12 miles away and I'll miss it

[ancientsolar]

3 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Shame the storm over the SW is dying out before getting to South Wales, knowing my luck we will get a storm here when I'm working 12 miles away and I'll miss it

just hoping it does that thing where it reignites as it hits the coast!

[Somerset girl]

The sun is shining and adding heat so I think that the storms might just keep going throughout the south west .

The rain was dancing if you know what I mean off of the road and the windscreen wipers had their work cut out. 

Still v v muggy mind you . 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

really does not stop it being muggy tho. its 33c down here whilst your 25c

And at a sticky 60% humidity 

[Guest]

Some 150-200mm accumulated pixels showing up on radar now in the last few hours in Cornwall.

[ancientsolar]

I believe the South Wales valleys have lit up with its first bit of lightning! heard a rumble to my West! - nothing on blitz

Edited August 15, 2022 by ancientsolar

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

42 minutes ago, swebby said:

Some very impressive wind shear on the the storm over Exeter, clouds going in every direction possible at some rate of knots with what looks like rotation to my untrained eye.  Rolling thunder (cloud-cloud, no flashes) for the past 40 mins.

Probably very elevated - had a storm like that about 2 years ago in Hants after a very hot spell. Saw almost no lightning but there was long rumbling from the cloud nearby for over an hour

[ChezWeather]

Anyone in Lincolnshire? Wondering if I've missed out on something special by deciding not to chase today

[AnvilCrawlers]

Just got home just b4 five and just in time as got storm and just constant thunder

 

[camturbo]

7 minutes ago, AnvilCrawlers said:

Just got home just b4 five and just in time as got storm and just constant thunder

 

All quiet here that might change 

[Somerset girl]

5 minutes ago, AnvilCrawlers said:

Just got home just b4 five and just in time as got storm and just constant thunder

 

I'm arriving back in Taunton now. 

Is it still going on thunder wise ? 

Can't hear anything because I'm in the car lol .