Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Methuselah]

I only wish the rain would make rain sounds:

 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Starting to get real intriguing for Monday and Tuesday based on the new 12z runs. Definitely room for change but the situation is definitely getting closer. Monday looking like a big day with (<2000) cape building across central and northern Wales moving east as the day goes on, the storms might become organised for a time as the afternoon ends around parts of central/western England . The storms should rumble away by Tuesday morning and quickly during the morning hours (<2000) cape should interact with the very warm and humid, perhaps sheared environment. Central south England and eastern England should see the strongest storms of day but widely across England scattered storm can be expected. 

Yes, it looks very intriguing. But I'd take just about any sort of rain just now. So long as it's wet!

[Eagle Eye]

Sorry lads, I've taken the Storms with me to Corfu

 

 

[Mesoscale]

28 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sorry lads, I've taken the Storms with me to Corfu

 

 

Undercover thunderstorm filming, your wife was probably like 'we are trying to have a nice dinner on holiday'.  

[Eagle Eye]

29 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Undercover thunderstorm filming, your wife was probably like 'we are trying to have a nice dinner on holiday'.  

I'm 15 luckily

In the meanwhile

Enjoying the Storm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

ECM 12z increasingly unstable for Mon-Wed now. Tuesday has 1200J/Kg across Central England which is some of the highest I've seen from the model for our shores.

[camturbo]

22 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ECM 12z increasingly unstable for Mon-Wed now. Tuesday has 1200J/Kg across Central England which is some of the highest I've seen from the model for our shores.

What about further west ie martock and surrounding areas

[TallPaul]

1 hour ago, Mesoscale said:

Undercover thunderstorm filming, your wife was probably like 'we are trying to have a nice dinner on holiday'.  

 

[TallPaul]

Just now, TallPaul said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sorry lads, I've taken the Storms with me to Corfu

 

 

That's the highlight of my holiday as far as I'm concerned...just don't tell my wife...

[viking_smb]

Synopotic charts had a trough going up the irish sea (long one at 00z monday), but updated one for 00z Monday it is a lot smaller and further south and west, (i.e. southern tip of ireland and further away)

[Iceman2606]

Some flashy bangs possible quite widely between Mon-Wed as the heatwave breaks down. Usual hit & miss nature applies with the added threat of flash floods due to run-off from the significantly dry grounds.⛈

[Eagle Eye]

Sorry, keep taking the Storms with me,under a level 2 ESTOFEX warning today here in Corfu, good news is, I'm coming back on Monday and will hopefully bring the Storms with me

 

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sorry, keep taking the Storms with me,under a level 2 ESTOFEX warning today here in Corfu, good news is, I'm coming back on Monday and will hopefully bring the Storms with me

Make sure they come back in one piece  please, and leave behind any storm shields 🗣

[NUT]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

The 3z UKV runs are getting very intresting. Monday showing a new addition of some thunderstorms breaking out over central eastern Britain as the evening closes. Tuesday is looking like it was before but is showing storms break out later over western parts.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Desperate times, watching a storm roll in on a webcam (again!) Look, umbrellas!!!

Šibenik - Poljana square, Šibenik, [ Right now, LIVE ] LiveStreaming cameras from Croatia - LiveCamCroatia, Explore Croatia

WWW.LIVECAMCROATIA.COM

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New Poljana square

 

[BrickFielder]

From Sunday onwards the jetstream is forecast to dip south across the UK giving a long wave trough and colder air aloft.

Typically when hot air from the continent gets replaced by maritime moist air and cooler air aloft spreads over the UK we get a thundery breakdown. There are worrying signs that the low wave trough becomes a cut off low over Spain and it becomes business as usual high pressure over the UK.

Even with the long wave trough modelling suggest high pressure at the surface lingers over the south with easterly winds still prevailing until we get a rapid switch to Northerly winds.

 

Forecast models do at the moment give a brief window where winds are from the south west (maritime moist air) but there is little time for surface dewpoints and humidity to rise in some southern areas.

There are sings that some areas will not get a thundery breakdown and little sign of rain for the immediate future. Dewpoints of below 10C and low humidity are not good for thunderstorms.

 

The problem with the modelling is that it maybe trying to handle a transition and holding on to the existing pattern too much. The confidence in what will happen Monday and Tuesday will be low at this point in my opinion so keep an open mind and don't be surprised by last minute changes in the forecasts.

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

11 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Desperate times, watching a storm roll in on a webcam (again!) Look, umbrellas!!!

Šibenik - Poljana square, Šibenik, [ Right now, LIVE ] LiveStreaming cameras from Croatia - LiveCamCroatia, Explore Croatia

WWW.LIVECAMCROATIA.COM

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New Poljana square

 

 

[viking_smb]

4 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

From Sunday onwards the jetstream is forecast to dip south across the UK giving a long wave trough and colder air aloft.

Typically when hot air from the continent gets replaced by maritime moist air and cooler air aloft spreads over the UK we get a thundery breakdown. There are worrying signs that the low wave trough becomes a cut off low over Spain and it becomes business as usual high pressure over the UK.

Even with the long wave trough modelling suggest high pressure at the surface lingers over the south with easterly winds still prevailing until we get a rapid switch to Northerly winds.

 

Forecast models do at the moment give a brief window where winds are from the south west (maritime moist air) but there is little time for surface dewpoints and humidity to rise in some southern areas.

There are sings that some areas will not get a thundery breakdown and little sign of rain for the immediate future. Dewpoints of below 10C and low humidity are not good for thunderstorms.

 

The problem with the modelling is that it maybe trying to handle a transition and holding on to the existing pattern too much. The confidence in what will happen Monday and Tuesday will be low at this point in my opinion so keep an open mind and don't be surprised by last minute changes in the forecasts.

 

thanks for that brickfielder

[carl1980]

15 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Desperate times, watching a storm roll in on a webcam (again!) Look, umbrellas!!!

Šibenik - Poljana square, Šibenik, [ Right now, LIVE ] LiveStreaming cameras from Croatia - LiveCamCroatia, Explore Croatia

WWW.LIVECAMCROATIA.COM

---

New Poljana square

 

That's throwing out some good CG lightning

[Rufus Butterfield]

Met office got the whole of UK covered now, so I guess no one's getting anything due to the met office warning curse

[Dangerous55019]

2 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

Met office got the whole of UK covered now, so I guess no one's getting anything due to the met office warning curse

You’ve just beaten me to it @Rufus Butterfield

Yes the U.K. Meto have just updated their yellow thunderstorm warning… It now includes Sunday and Tuesday, as well! 🌩⛈

[Mapantz]

Blanket warnings and warning impact matrix = don't get your hopes up.

[minus10]

7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Blanket warnings and warning impact matrix = don't get your hopes up.

Yes i was just going to say that looking at their impact matrix it is still indicated as 'unlikely' in any of the areas under the warning with relatively high impact..

so maybe 10% chance in any one location.??...this is a nowcast situation ....potential there for some humdingers however not widespread...evolving situation though so could change but i am not expecting much currently....(hope i am wrong!)....

Edited August 13, 2022 by minus10

[Liam Burge]

Imagine being a storm lover and living in Coldstream right now, haha.