Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[cyclonic happiness]

43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 for second half ofNovember..

 

what is that a HP/LP anomaly or a temperature anomaly? 

[Don]

1 hour ago, CoxR said:

CMCC, Meteo-France and DWD are going for a stronger-than-average PV throughout the winter:

 

DWD looks to be going for a significantly weaker vortex for early winter at least and Meteo France close to average throughout.  Only CMCC looks to be going for a stronger than average PV?

[bluearmy]

30 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

what is that a HP/LP anomaly or a temperature anomaly? 

Slp

[CoxR]

Just now, Don said:

DWD looks to be going for a significantly weaker vortex for early winter at least and Meteo France close to average throughout.  Only CMCC looks to be going for a stronger than average PV?

no, DWD is going for a stronger vortex as is Meteo-France. As I said, you have to compare the thick blue line to the thick orange line, not the black line. If the blue line (the ensemble mean forecast) is above the orange line (the model climate mean) then the model is suggesting a stronger vortex, even if it is below the observed climatology. 

This is reflected in it's forecasted MSLP anomalies through the winter, where as a consequence of a stronger-than-average polar vortex, pressure anomalies over the Arctic are generally negative: 

And here too for Meteo-France:

 

[Don]

13 minutes ago, CoxR said:

no, DWD is going for a stronger vortex as is Meteo-France. As I said, you have to compare the thick blue line to the thick orange line, not the black line. If the blue line (the ensemble mean forecast) is above the orange line (the model climate mean) then the model is suggesting a stronger vortex, even if it is below the observed climatology. 

This is reflected in it's forecasted MSLP anomalies through the winter, where as a consequence of a stronger-than-average polar vortex, pressure anomalies over the Arctic are generally negative: 

And here too for Meteo-France:

 

My apologies, I didn't read the first part of your post!

I would think the DWD MSLP map could give potential for a few short lived easterly outbreaks with high pressure ridging to Scandinavia and lower pressure over Spain? 

METEO France not great though it has to be said.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, iapennell said:

The National Snow and Ice Data Centre so sea-ice limits close to normal positions for mid-October just east of Greenland and in the north of the Davis Strait- even though the Davis Strait remains ice-free. With the Greenland ice-cap also cooling rapidly along with NE Canada,  would not the warmer-than-normal surface of the North Atlantic would support stronger baroclinicity in the far North Atlantic going forwards? 

NSIDC map here: 

 

Im reflecting on the 'cold blob' years post 2012 when the atlantic was much colder near our vinicity and we had a number of very wet mild winters, since 2020 the atlantic has been warmer and the last 2 years have delivered a weaker sluggish jet.

[E17boy]

Hi peeps,

It is already becoming a bit of a concern when we look at the current pattern we are stuck in and this is together with the depressing economic situation at the moment. I did myself expect some colder incursions starting to appear as we head into the latter part of October, but from what I can see we are stuck with a spinning low over us for the foreseeable. To make things even worse for us coldies I have been keeping an eye on European temperatures and at the moment most   of Europe is still mild with no sign of any major cold pool . This does bring a sad worrying feeling when looking for something interesting in December. Things now need to start changing in our pattern otherwise weeks will become months and we will still be waiting. I know it’s only October but you can’t help the worry when you see that Euro slug which has been the spoiler of many winters. 
 

Here hooping that we start to see a shift to something more seasonal in the coming weeks.

Have a great day all

regards

[Premiere Neige]

31 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps,

It is already becoming a bit of a concern when we look at the current pattern we are stuck in and this is together with the depressing economic situation at the moment. I did myself expect some colder incursions starting to appear as we head into the latter part of October, but from what I can see we are stuck with a spinning low over us for the foreseeable. To make things even worse for us coldies I have been keeping an eye on European temperatures and at the moment most   of Europe is still mild with no sign of any major cold pool . This does bring a sad worrying feeling when looking for something interesting in December. Things now need to start changing in our pattern otherwise weeks will become months and we will still be waiting. I know it’s only October but you can’t help the worry when you see that Euro slug which has been the spoiler of many winters. 
 

Here hooping that we start to see a shift to something more seasonal in the coming weeks.

Have a great day all

regards

I wouldn't worry just yet. Cold October's don't tend to lead to cold winters if I remember correctly. 

[OverThere]

We had a very wet Atlantic dominated October in the south of Ireland in 2009 and we all know what happened next.............we can live in hope anyway!

[jules216]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

I wouldn't worry just yet. Cold October's don't tend to lead to cold winters if I remember correctly. 

We are entering stuck pattern under Euro high this month, not to worry October 1995 had like 0mm precipitation, in a wet 2010 year october here wasnt very wet Also 1999 Nina October was dry. Its quite common October tends to feel like a stuck pattern - hence Indian summer is correlated to dates around now.

[Sky Full]

Well the autumn so far has been relatively quiet and there isn’t much sign of winter yet.  I’m not unhappy that we haven’t had any storms which merit a name, yet, and at the moment it looks benign for the next couple of weeks too.  We’ve had some windy weather, and some very wet days, but the temperatures are holding up well.   From a selfish perspective I welcome these conditions because I’m not having to use the heating oil, and I can continue to do useful work outside.  I can remember several November 5ths in the 1950s and 1960s when the weather was already very cold and frost was not unusual, so the lack of frost in early November these days appears to confirm a change in the climate from my perspective.  But it doesn’t mean that we will not see prolonged cold weather later in the winter because conditions can change dramatically in only a few days with very little prior warning even by the most capable computer models.  So keep watching the models and don’t worry about the lack of cold at this stage of the season,

[bluearmy]

15 hours ago, bluearmy said:

 Nothing in particular to note on the strat run ec46 

the model is consistent with building heights and pressure to our west and northwest later in November 

Gfs is showing a small displacement towards Svalbard end week 2. Ec46 in general has the spv on the Asian side and does drift to the same area through nov

modelling remains pretty amplified next couple weeks within a mobile pattern - I guess that could drive a more notable strat repsonse to trop waves once the mixed noise from ens variation drops out and centres on one place (best case scandi) 

Edited October 18, 2022 by bluearmy

[damianslaw]

Those noting lack of cold this month, October is traditionally warmer than April and quite often May.

Unlike the wet half of the year, Aug to Feb, we are yet to enter the cold half Nov to May.

Edited October 18, 2022 by damianslaw

[sebastiaan1973]

An intresting picture from Simon Lee.

[Frost HoIIow]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Those noting lack of cold this month, October is traditionally warmer than April and quite often May.

Unlike the wet half of the year, Aug to Feb, we are yet to enter the cold half Nov to May.

Yes. Rarely is October a cold month and snow cover rarer still probably once every 15 years on low ground away from the Scottish mountains. Much better chance as we move into November especially after mid month.

[Summer8906]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Those noting lack of cold this month, October is traditionally warmer than April and quite often May.

Unlike the wet half of the year, Aug to Feb, we are yet to enter the cold half Nov to May.

Not sure I'd put May, a month that fairly regularly achieves 27C+ temps in the south, and a month in which I don't think I've ever observed snow, in the cold half of the year though. 27C+ in October is almost unheard of and has only occurred twice, I believe, in the past 50-60 years, namely 1985 and 2011.

Rare to have October warmer than May down here, I suspect.

The other factor is habituation; October generally feels colder than April because temps are a lot lower than the norm for the previous few months, while in April temps are a lot higher than the winter norm. So the "feels like" warmest 6 months of the year are arguably April to September. I will admit that April is in the "snowy half" of the year though (Nov-Apr) as well as being in the "summery half" (Apr-Sep).

As well as being in the wet half, we are also of course now in the dark half.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Summer8906

[LRD]

6 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Well the autumn so far has been relatively quiet and there isn’t much sign of winter yet.  I’m not unhappy that we haven’t had any storms which merit a name, yet, and at the moment it looks benign for the next couple of weeks too.  We’ve had some windy weather, and some very wet days, but the temperatures are holding up well.   From a selfish perspective I welcome these conditions because I’m not having to use the heating oil, and I can continue to do useful work outside.  I can remember several November 5ths in the 1950s and 1960s when the weather was already very cold and frost was not unusual, so the lack of frost in early November these days appears to confirm a change in the climate from my perspective.  But it doesn’t mean that we will not see prolonged cold weather later in the winter because conditions can change dramatically in only a few days with very little prior warning even by the most capable computer models.  So keep watching the models and don’t worry about the lack of cold at this stage of the season,

Yep similar to how I see it. Wasn't born in time to remember the 50s and 60s (and most of the 70s) but even in the 80's and early 90s frosty bonfire nights were pretty common

And it's certainly been ANOTHER pretty quiet autumn in my patch so far. Autumn always had the ability to be a really wild and even, at times, cold season but I don't know what's happened to our autumns in the last 15 years (well, I do but that's for another thread)

As for winter, we will get cold winters in the next years and decades but they'll just become rarer - which they already are I s'pose

Edited October 18, 2022 by LRD

[trickydicky]

8 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Not sure I'd put May, a month that fairly regularly achieves 27C+ temps in the south, and a month in which I don't think I've ever observed snow, in the cold half of the year though. 27C+ in October is almost unheard of and has only occurred twice, I believe, in the past 50-60 years, namely 1985 and 2011.

Extremely rare to have October warmer than May down here, I suspect.

The other factor is habituation; October generally feels colder than April because temps are a lot lower than the norm for the previous few months, while in April temps are a lot higher than the winter norm. So the "feels like" warmest 6 months of the year are arguably April to September. I will admit that April is in the "snowy half" of the year though (Nov-Apr) as well as being in the "summery half" (Apr-Sep).

As well as being in the wet half, we are also of course now in the dark half.

It’s maybe a north/south thing. Certainly April and to a lesser extent May can still be pretty frosty. A clear night at any point up to mid May here is likely to produce a frost, if only a very slight very early one in May. Frost in October has become pretty none existent. This time of year (late September/October/November/early December) seems to just merge into one long cloudy monotonous drag where you are waiting for winter but it just doesn’t seem to want to arrive. Low to mid teens by day and 6/7/8 at night in a kind of reoccurring dreary nightmare. I don’t like autumn in case it wasn’t clear! 

[Penrith Snow]

On 18/10/2022 at 19:28, trickydicky said:

It’s maybe a north/south thing. Certainly April and to a lesser extent May can still be pretty frosty. A clear night at any point up to mid May here is likely to produce a frost, if only a very slight very early one in May. Frost in October has become pretty none existent. This time of year (late September/October/November/early December) seems to just merge into one long cloudy monotonous drag where you are waiting for winter but it just doesn’t seem to want to arrive. Low to mid teens by day and 6/7/8 at night in a kind of reoccurring dreary nightmare. I don’t like autumn in case it wasn’t clear! 

I used to like autumn with its crisp days and promise of winter wonders to come even if it mostly failed to live up to expectations, but these days autumn seems more like a bad summer with endless days of southerly winds bringing cloud and warm rain.

That's why I decided several years ago that my autumn's in retirement would be spent in southern Spain where summer proper holds on till late November.

I strongly recommend it.

Andy

[Weather Enthusiast91]

14 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

I used to like autumn with its crisp days and promise of winter wonders to come even if it mostly failed to live up to expectations, but these days autumn seems more like a bad summer with endless days of southerly winds bringing cloud and warm rain.

That's why I decided several years ago that my autumn's in retirement would be spent in southern Spain where summer proper holds on till late November.

I strongly recommend it.

Andy

I would love to live somewhere that is more continental and actually has proper seasons. Autumn used to be my favourite season, but that is vastly changing as they seem to becoming a lot more benign nowadays with the same thing day after day. Where's the storms? Where's the chilly misty mornings? Where's the crisp frosty nights?

Spring is my favourite season now as it has far more of a variety. For example, April can still deliver frost and snow but can also deliver 25 Celsius temps.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 10/10/2022 at 19:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Super interesting, here are the images within the tweet for a bit easier viewing 

 

 

Eerily similar  

[E17boy]

2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Eerily similar  

Hi

What implications does this have for the uk weather going into this period.

regards

[jules216]

2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Eerily similar  

I Can see 2 out of my 3 winter analogs there - 1999/00 and 2008/09

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 hours ago, E17boy said:

Hi

What implications does this have for the uk weather going into this period.

regards

With the high around Greenland and it makes me think lower pressures disrupting close to the UK which instead of the standard O shape and > movement perhaps more of a negative tilt, maybe a setup akin to 2009/10

  

[SqueakheartLW]

Would be a memorable northerly snap for Bonfire Night if it came off

GFS Extended P04 at +420 hours away

-5 isotherm over very much all of the UK with the -10 isotherm over the N and E. The -15 isotherm almost into the far north too.