Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[johncam]

5 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Yea I'm going for no snow whatsoever and the odd frost here and there if we're lucky! But with temps around 5-7c

Western Europe seems to be suffering the most in winter with ridiculously high temps , sad to  say you could be right 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Downburst said:

Well as a reminder, the ECMWF Long range initialized October 1, and not forgetting we are getting a new report any day now, does show south of England unlikely to exceed the median 2m climate temp and does show potential for 500 pressure to exceed the median to the east, so as far as that goes overall the winter shouldn't be too warm if this means occasionally higher pressure to the east, but we have to see the latest run, not sure what day it comes out, maybe tomorrow. Would not be surprised to see the odd easterly this winter such as was hinted at yesterday

Yes, must be due for update imminently and will make for a nervous viewing! 

[SqueakheartLW]

A CFS 9 month run to BANK for winter - 6z dated 3rd November 2022

The period from around 6th January 2023 to 19th February 2023 is dominated by colder conditions, several beasterlies and very high chances of snow for all of the UK on many occasions

6th January 2023

This is the last of the relatively mild days before the cold starts to lock in

10th January 2023

Winds from the east set in and progressively colder air begins to push into northern areas in particular

15th January 2023

A bit of a messy chart but all within the first push of colder air. Snow has already become a threat but the coldest beast is yet to show itself at this stage

20th January 2023

See all those very cold uppers to our east. These are about to be unleashed upon the UK.

22nd January 2023

BEAST FROM THE EAST UNLEASHED. Here it comes. The coldest part of this particular run. Although the main beast is short the cold air sticks around after this with troughs moving around in the flow with snow no doubt getting dumped on the UK

3rd February 2023

Eventually we lose the troughs and the snow risk as the theme switches to cold and dry with a risk of severe overnight frosts at this stage

5th February 2023

Another go at getting a beasterly going but no where near as severe as the first one and far less snow this time around but with a lot of colder air already over the continent as well as the UK then it stays very cold.

13th February 2023

After a few days of generally dry and cold we see a trough push north taking an area of snow with it. This looked to be an attempt to end the cold but with colder air generally all over the UK it remains cold even behind this feature. More severe cold uppers are gathering to the east again but will they make it this time?

15th February 2023

Those cold uppers do try and push into the UK again with another blast from the east but only really hit England and parts of Wales too. There is a further risk of snow from showers in the east but high pressure soon collapses down from the north, killing off the showers.

20th February 2023

After a few more days of dry and very cold the Atlantic finally stirs and pushes all of the cold air away. After transitional snow it turns a lot milder after this with SW winds, winter over on this run as we head into a wet and at times stormy and mild end to February 2023 and into March 2023 as well.

[Sunny76]

14 hours ago, John88B said:

I'm going to buck the trend here and go for an average November temperature wise then a colder December and early January with snow for many.

I’ll go for a cold December and first half of January, but it will be a 1981/82 winter all over again, as late January and February become very mild and cloudy. 

[northwestsnow]

EC46 is

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I’ll go for a cold December and first half of January, but it will be a 1981/82 winter all over again, as late January and February become very mild and cloudy. 

Fine by me! 

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC46 is

I'm waiting with bated breath to see what the updated ECMWF seasonal shows tomorrow.....

[lassie23]

Here are my early winter thoughts

[Premiere Neige]

Something of a novelty......I'm going to have to scrape the car windscreen this morning!!

Edited November 4, 2022 by Premier Neige

[jules216]

I find this very interesting, sustained +GLAAM in moderate Nina. Id say if this sustains when seasonal wavelenghts change it should really aid northern blocking. Its maybe undoing early cold potential now but when LA Nina usualy turns winter of then we need this GLAAM injection. Westerlies in tropics should start compensation in mid latitudes and these zonal lows should permit the high pressure belts to travel north of their usual place. This would of course require a sanity check from likes of @Tamaraand @Glacier Point 

[SqueakheartLW]

My fantasy cold November based on the coldest GFS, GEM and ECM 2m temp mins and maxes is closing in on a sub zero November

When I gave my first post about this a few days ago it stood at a cold 0.72C for the month with 115 cm of snow too for November 2022

Now with a few more colder values cropping up since the other day my November 2022 now stands at a chilly .....

0.19C (-7.41C below the 1991-2020 mean)

Totally Bonkers

As for the snow total this has really increased. Last time it was 115cm, now it stands at a decent .....

166.1cm of snow

Beats 2010 by a country mile that does

[Don]

Still no update from ECMWF seasonal.

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, Don said:

Still no update from ECMWF seasonal.

From memory it’s probably today 

[northwestsnow]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

From memory it’s probably today 

Yes,you are right.

It's updated - meh  

[jules216]

Where has that -NAO gone from -1 to +1.5 for November shows a typical example of imposibility to forecast NAO at 2+ weeks ahead. This would be very dry and maybe frosty winter here in central Európe.

[bluearmy]

The monthly breakdowns reveal dec to have lost higher slp anom  centred griceland as it slips south closer to our west. I guess that could mean a stronger high just to our west than what would have come in the griceland area where av slp is lower. 

heights are still progged to be higher than average across our latitude and to our north - looks like higher than av chance of a U.K. high centred just west in dec and a suppressed scandi  ridge (which could be sceuro) in Jan. 

little sign of any anom low heights or slp over europe in either month. The central med area is a little wetter than average over each month. 

basically it looks to be a two month period with higher than av heights and slp and lower than av precip 

feb looks like a more strongly pos nao although too far away to be of much analysis 

 

[Downburst]

DJF latest seasonal ensemble mean temp

and rain

 

and 500 mean, wow

Edited November 5, 2022 by Downburst

[Nick F]

Does look rather anticyclonic and dry for the UK for Dec and Jan on the November EC seasonal update, but could be frosty too with potential for surface cold to build. Southern Europe and Alps potentially wetter with plenty of snow at elevation.

Seen some interesting talk about the colder-than-normal stratosphere in the southern hemisphere winter this year caused by ejection of water vapour into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga eruption back in Jan perhaps affecting patterns in the coming northern hemisphere winter. There appears to be correlation between a southern hemisphere winter cold-than-normal stratosphere and -NAO / high latitude blocking in the northern hemisphere winter that follows. Also, unlike other winters when La Niña was an influence, such as the last two winters, the subtropical jet stream heading into the winter is far more active than a typical La Nina, more Nino.  And being the third year of La Niña, puts this coming winter even more exclusive club, and add in the volcanic influences as mentioned, IMO more difficult to predict this winter than the usual La Nina concept with +QBO / +solar would suggest?

Edited November 5, 2022 by Nick F

[Downburst]

Thanks. Nick for interesting thoughts. One thing we might watch for is sunshine hours this winter. If we do get a little more high pressure and given won’t presumably be always foggy, we might get some notable numbers and maybe even some records. Let’s hope so as today was sunny here and I was wearing a winter jumper with heating off and sun in the house, 22 degrees.

interesting fact. The mean number of days per annum at Dublin airport with snow lying at 09:00 is 3.4 days. Point being there’s more than just snow to the weather and winter is beautiful in stable and not very cloudy air. Just saying.

[sebastiaan1973]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Does look rather anticyclonic and dry for the UK for Dec and Jan on the November EC seasonal update, but could be frosty too with potential for surface cold to build. Southern Europe and Alps potentially wetter with plenty of snow at elevation.

Seen some interesting talk about the colder-than-normal stratosphere in the southern hemisphere winter this year caused by ejection of water vapour into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga eruption back in Jan perhaps affecting patterns in the coming northern hemisphere winter. There appears to be correlation between a southern hemisphere winter cold-than-normal stratosphere and -NAO / high latitude blocking in the northern hemisphere winter that follows. Also, unlike other winters when La Niña was an influence, such as the last two winters, the subtropical jet stream heading into the winter is far more active than a typical La Nina, more Nino.  And being the third year of La Niña, puts this coming winter even more exclusive club, and add in the volcanic influences as mentioned, IMO more difficult to predict this winter than the usual La Nina concept with +QBO / +solar would suggest?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

[Don]

10 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes,you are right.

It's updated - meh  

Yep, was expecting the updated seasonal to not be as good as October.  However, at least it has not reverted to a ragingly positive AO!!

Reading between the lines though, I think I know where the coming season is heading!!

Edited November 5, 2022 by Don

[Don]

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The monthly breakdowns reveal dec to have lost higher slp anom  centred griceland as it slips south closer to our west. I guess that could mean a stronger high just to our west than what would have come in the griceland area where av slp is lower. 

heights are still progged to be higher than average across our latitude and to our north - looks like higher than av chance of a U.K. high centred just west in dec and a suppressed scandi  ridge (which could be sceuro) in Jan. 

little sign of any anom low heights or slp over europe in either month. The central med area is a little wetter than average over each month. 

basically it looks to be a two month period with higher than av heights and slp and lower than av precip 

feb looks like a more strongly pos nao although too far away to be of much analysis 

 

Not a positive update for those wanting a more interesting winter and not really a surprise given how warm we have generally been since July!

[Don]

10 hours ago, jules216 said:

Where has that -NAO gone from -1 to +1.5 for November shows a typical example of imposibility to forecast NAO at 2+ weeks ahead. This would be very dry and maybe frosty winter here in central Európe.

Yes and one wonders what the NAO will show for December on the next update?!

[damianslaw]

44 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes and one wonders what the NAO will show for December on the next update?!

negative or neutral I suspect. 

[Don]

33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

negative or neutral I suspect. 

Not sure but the EMCWF update was not what I wanted to see!!  It would also seem that the CFS V2 is going for a mild winter and that was pretty good at predicting the cold winter 2009/10 and the December to remember 2010, so all in all I'm not optimistic for the coming months if it's snow you want!!

This probably explains the lack of posts in this thread today!!

Edited November 6, 2022 by Don

[Sceptical]

8 hours ago, Don said:

Reading between the lines though, I think I know where the coming season is heading!!

Down the......?

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by Sceptical