Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'd rather northerly! E'lys are not always cold, like next few days still fairly mild before northerly arrives on Wed, FI low on EC, looks very snowy for a time, but too far north for the south to avoid a thaw

Depends, easterlies are more of a high risk, but higher reward game. I would rather an easterly over a northerly, as they tend to be less marginal due to generally lower dew points. Plus the uppers from the East tend to be less modified if they are in place. You would rarely see sub -15’s make it from the North. 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

20 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Depends, easterlies are more of a high risk, but higher reward game. I would rather an easterly over a northerly, as they tend to be less marginal due to generally lower dew points. Plus the uppers from the East tend to be less modified if they are in place. You would rarely see sub -15’s make it from the North. 

Want east/NErly as Northerlies are the same story everytime usually.

[Met4Cast]

I wonder if we'll finally see the Met Office climb down off the fence they've been sitting on in terms of the longer outlook given last nights EC46 + overnight ensemble trends, quite clear that we're heading towards a protracted period of below average temperatures now, the only question is how cold. 

I've noticed Mets beginning to ramp up the messaging re: colder weather on Twitter in the last day or so.

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

I wonder if we'll finally see the Met Office climb down off the fence they've been sitting on in terms of the longer outlook given last nights EC46 + overnight ensemble trends, quite clear that we're heading towards a protracted period of below average temperatures now, the only question is how cold. 

I've noticed Mets beginning to ramp up the messaging re: colder weather on Twitter in the last day or so.

Yes will be interested to see what they will right up yesterday’s update was slightly backtrack with rain in south snow on hills 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

ECM ops have been shocking over the last few days with consistent outliers. No exception on the 0Z:

Ignore post D7 on this run as statistically it is useless.

The op is only supposed to be reliable out to day 6/7 IDO. If it looks right then you can take that towards 8. We know why this particular run looks so awry late on. 

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

I wonder if we'll finally see the Met Office climb down off the fence they've been sitting on in terms of the longer outlook given last nights EC46 + overnight ensemble trends, quite clear that we're heading towards a protracted period of below average temperatures now, the only question is how cold. 

I've noticed Mets beginning to ramp up the messaging re: colder weather on Twitter in the last day or so.

I doubt it will change much - my take from the 00z suites is that they take too much energy west into the atlantic and not enough south into europe. That leaves the U.K. in an uncertain zone although north of the midlands you’d be very hopeful indeed. Given the sst’s at the moment, I really can’t stress enough how much getting a slack deep cold trough across the country matters if you want to see widespread lowland snow cover. 
 

onto the 12z’s then and whether we can hone in on an agreed solution for the arrival of the trough. Tough to judge where the pattern ends up until we can get agreement on that! 

[BlueHedgehog074]

If not already posted then I thought you really needed to know what the noble NAVGEM was up to this morning. Just for fun at both 144 and 180 hours below. Really do love this model… 

 

While it might not sit directly over the heart of Greenland, the block is nicely positioned and orientated with the upper trough dropping South/South-West through the UK. End up with a a high quality unstable cyclonic North-Easterly flow - that very cold 850 hPa to our very nearby North-East over the North Sea and Scandinavia looking ready to swamp the UK. I imagine some heavy snow showers pushing South-West through the UK from the North-East. 

[Bats32]

Need to see what the 6z and next ECM are saying now. Now convinced by this morning's output

[Lukesluckybunch]

icon 6z the whole pattern a little further east..nice!

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

icon 6z the whole pattern a little further east..nice!

Really want east a smidge and south.. I really can't stress enough that the ECM sets up where we land around day 9 onwards  at day 5 and 6 which it's pretty accurate on usually... 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Really want east a smidge and south.. I really can't stress enough that the ECM sets up where we land around day 9 onwards  at day 5 and 6 which it's pretty accurate on usually... 

yes..what do you think of the icon?

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes..what do you think of the icon?

I don’t think the ICON has it anything like right over Greenland on either run at T120, compared to other models.  6z:

It’s too far SE, the block.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

We need further south on the pattern to give us a better margin of error when the inevitable breakdown attempt comes. 

That’s in addition to the obvious ….

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I don’t think the ICON has it anything like right over Greenland on either run at T120, compared to other models.

agree with mike,if you take the ECM it has far stronger heights at the same time frame

[TSNWK]

 ECM120 and ICON 06Z - Icon looks a little further east and tad slower

[TEITS]

1 minute ago, Bats32 said:

Need to see what the 6z and next ECM are saying now. Now convinced by this morning's output

Im not convinced of anything at the moment apart from blocking over Greenland is likely to dominate. However I could spend an entire morning typing out the range of possibilities. Will we see very cold convective NE,lys as the GH block extends further S? , low pressure approaching from the SW but being forced back SE? , GH block less influencial allowing low pressure to extend NE from the SW bringing milder temps? , Will we instead see none of these and instead be sat under stagnant cold air?

At the moment I would say next week is more likely to be cold, frosty away from E coasts, have to wait until following week for the snowfall!

[Row w]

24 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I wonder if we'll finally see the Met Office climb down off the fence they've been sitting on in terms of the longer outlook given last nights EC46 + overnight ensemble trends, quite clear that we're heading towards a protracted period of below average temperatures now, the only question is how cold. 

I've noticed Mets beginning to ramp up the messaging re: colder weather on Twitter in the last day or so.

I've noticed  for my area they are showing snow at around day 10 and I've found them to be more reliable f recently

[Lukesluckybunch]

on the ECM around 168 till the end of the run,there was some serious cold uppers loitering around the norway area..we never got a taste of those on the op run..lets see if its there on the 6z gfs..and not only there we tap into some of it!

[seb]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Really want east a smidge and south.. I really can't stress enough that the ECM sets up where we land around day 9 onwards  at day 5 and 6 which it's pretty accurate on usually... 

While there's a valid point in what you're saying (i.e. setup from day 6 leads to what is shown for day 9+) , the ECM wants to create a low which is far, far too intense to be plausible. That's not surprising given what it is trying to do but it's also not going to verify like that (just look at the mean vs the op). It follows that with a chunk of the intensity of the low being removed the cold isn't going to be pushed back as far as shown in the latter part of the op and we end up far closer to what is shown on other models.

[johnholmes]

NOAA 6-10 and 8-15 remains as before, see below.

The ECMWF set of charts=

That shows as per NOAA at first then shows a slow change towards the end frames. Surface flow backing slack westerly (2nd set of charts) and the -5 C 850 mb line slow y return north over the country.

 

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

I

[GSP]

While there is a lot of blocking forecast, there also seems to be a lot of mobility where it matters. Little changes can add to a lot further down the line.

With milder air forecast to be flirting with the south from time to time, we should hope for the best, but expect the worst because we know how it goes sometimes.

Here’s for a good, more definitive 6z.

Edited December 2, 2022 by GSP

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Scrolling through each ECMWF ensemble member and the amount of uncertainty past day 6 is extraordinary. Some push the cold to the west of the UK , others have bit of a stuck low over UK bringing slack cold. Others have violent snowy easterlies. Lots still to play for.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Im not convinced of anything at the moment apart from blocking over Greenland is likely to dominate. However I could spend an entire morning typing out the range of possibilities. Will we see very cold convective NE,lys as the GH block extends further S? , low pressure approaching from the SW but being forced back SE? , GH block less influencial allowing low pressure to extend NE from the SW bringing milder temps? , Will we instead see none of these and instead be sat under stagnant cold air?

At the moment I would say next week is more likely to be cold, frosty away from E coasts, have to wait until following week for the snowfall!

At the moment I wouldn’t disagree with that - but by tomorrows 00z runs we should be far more certain as events on the other side of the hemisphere and upstream will have already begun to occur. 

the 00z eps look somewhere between yesterday mornings slightly less wonderful output and the noon much better. That would say we are approaching a landing zone but I have a nagging feeling as per your post that things could change - see this mornings gem for an illustration 

the gefs and geps continue to swing a little in the extended between chilly/cold and really cold.

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

NOAA 6-10 and 8-15 remains as before, see below.

The ECMWF set of charts=

That shows as per NOAA at first then shows a slow change towards the end frames. Surface flow backing slack westerly (2nd set of charts) and the -5 C 850 mb line slow y return north over the country.

 

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

I

Thanks John. Adding a little credence to ecm day 10 would be my take

[fromey]

A some encouraging comments from Ian Ferguson.

[Metwatch]

Some of the individual det runs are indeed Interesting for those looking for more large amounts of snow.

I think the big lows being modelled to come in closer on some output is eye catching . It could really cause a dumping for central and southern areas of England/Wales especially if a channel low pops up once the cold is locked over the UK.

Synoptic setup would obviously need to be near perfect for that to happen but does give hope for us further south.

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Metwatch