Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Indeed, but as @Captain Shortwave just mentioned above, previous experience indicates the low would be less deep and stretched, and likely to give someone a right dumping.

And in theory assuming this "battleground" snow-event happens, the low will bring a lot of tropical moisture up towards the UK, which would result in some extraordinary accumulations of snow.

BUT this is merely speculation at this point, just for the fun of it.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

No, me neither,the only explanation is warm SST'S but I'm pretty sure we've seen them this warm before (ish)and a system of that size even with warm SST's would only form around November usually.

And anyway, I don't see it as a feasible significant development. It forms in a basin of significant wind shear that would just weaken it,I'm not sure how the models are forecasting it to strengthen really considering that shear wrapped around it. 

Yeah it goes against the basics of tropical weather. A tropical strom just cannot get that strong with so much windshear

[IDO]

Big improvement on the 12z from the GFS with the cut-off being less, and possible reconnection quickly to the Asian vortex:

06z 12z

Ergo much colder air to our NE by D7:

More likely the Atlantic low will disrupt and go under...as we get closer to the reliable, assuming the trend continues. 

However, there are no doubt many solutions to this general pattern as we know that models are not great at modelling lows spawning on the jet and how they disrupt, orientation and whether they undercut? This is where we are now, drifting away from the simple beauty of an Asian trough stretching south into Scandi and onwards; and instead relying on multiple variables to fit into place to sustain the cold!

 

[LightningLover]

Since the low's  time of arrival is over 200 hours away... I'm going to stubbornly pretend it doesn't exist for the time being lol!

[Man With Beard]

80% of the UK under snow cover next weekend if the GFS is correct

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Main thing is gfs is a big improvement over the gfs o6z!!!up to 192 hours!

Agree.. was nice to see the air tic trough a bit further south east and maintaining a link all be it weak to vortex lobe over Asia.. this gave a slightly colder few day from Wednesday to Sunday..the low from the south west at day 9 was defo more elongated compared to the compress ball at 06z enough time for a couple more corrections like that to remove it as concern for us

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Since the low's  time of arrival is over 200 hours away... I'm going to stubbornly pretend it doesn't exist for the time being lol!

Some might start to hope it does if these lows often do what they do when coming up against a pool of cold air and high latitude blocking

[Catacol]

33 minutes ago, Rayth said:

So I read that a SSW usually has a 2/3 chance of turning the UK cold, knowing our luck it will deck the cards in line for the US and ruin our blocking and I’m a glass half full kinda guy 

Yep and those wise owls will also reiterate constantly that nothing is ever guaranteed, meteorologically speaking  

Yes….but if we have a blocked pattern anchored in place when the SSW begins to kick in we have a chance of a wave 1 displacement to Asia which would be mouthwatering given the Atlantic pattern, or a less likely wave 2 with a 2018 look to it. But I’m getting ever so slightly ahead of myself. We are a long way away from this yet and all kinds of things can and will change. Time I got back up…

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm sticking with me guns on this...the outlook is cold and snow will rear its gorgeous head at times..and just for fun here is one of those risks of milder air encroaching from the SW and bringing potential snowfall...Will the mild air win out? Will this feature even make it? Will the cold bite back? Who knows but one thing for sure is we have at least exciting times and not your usuall dross.

[Lukesluckybunch]

GEM is awful the trough just hangs around to the north of Britain never sinks south..then that crazy low appears..ECM will shed some more light on things

[SLEETY]

Scottish ski industry will be doing backflips looking at this afternoon model runs.

Is that a polar low developing earlier on. North of Orkney and Shetland. Something that needs  to be watched,could be some big snow totals up there next week. 

 

[Summerstorm]

If that tropical storm does end up elongating and sliding hopefully it can help if we were to retrogress into a Scandi Pattern down the line by propping it up. 

[Day 10]

Purely JFF.

Onto the ECM anyway, things ticking along nicely.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Day 10

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Some might start to hope it does if these lows often do what they do when coming up against a pool of cold air and high latitude blocking

Yes, the good old high risk potential jackpot scenario! 

[markw2680]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

80% of the UK under snow cover next weekend if the GFS is correct

Everyone from the midlands north

I agree it’s annoying but I find the south annoying too. Where classes as the south? 
anyway yes it’s going to turn much colder and a decent chance of snow that lasts longer than a few hours of slush

[Bats32]

Lovely output for Scotland next week

[Gowon]

11 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

This has happened before I believe? Can’t quite remember but we had a similar situation. 

I think it was sunspots last time.

[Met4Cast]

I'd put a small wager (energy crises after all, 50p?) that the "tropical low" doesn't even reach the English channel in reality, let alone push in across the UK. I suspect in a few days time we'll be looking at this low willing it a little further north because there is the potential for a serious snow event on the northern edge of it. 

Seen this time and time again. 8/10 they trend south and miss the UK entirely. 1/10 we get absolutely pasted and 1/10 we see a transient snow event followed by milder weather. 

[Derecho]

Something that hasn't been noticed so far... but the midweek northerly keeps getting little upgrades, quite a lot of ensemble members on the GFS 12z have -10c upper over the UK.

[January Snowstorm]

The key developments so far

- Uppers much colder in the reliable timeframe making this much less marginal after Wednesday.

- Heights over Greenland stronger and  a trend that they might reinforce towards Scandi

- Those who earned a reputation that we listen to them all in favour of a prolonged cold spell

- Adores low needs watching but for the moment it's outside of the reliable.

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 168 . Nice chart and the pain in the a*** low is there but better than all the other runs . 

Edited December 3, 2022 by ICE COLD

[phil nw.]

The UKMO fax issued earlier alongside this afternoons raw 850s for midday Tuesday day 3 if you like.

The arrival of the Arctic air into Scotland along with snow showers.A further step towards what promises to be an increasingly cold and wintry week.I think snow interest quite widely under that cold trough towards Thurs/Friday. 

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Everyone from the midlands north

I agree it’s annoying but I find the south annoying too. Where classes as the south? 
anyway yes it’s going to turn much colder and a decent chance of snow that lasts longer than a few hours of slush

You’re thinking of that magical boundary of the M4 - where it usually rains to the south of it

[starstream]

Many a time we had an old member on here, showing how, run by run the lows incrementally  were shifting south.

most of the excitement is on the day and dashing to lamppost watch. 
 

get the cold in first…..

[LightningLover]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

You’re thinking of that magical boundary of the M4 - where it usually rains to the south of it

Don't get me started, it's genuinely a phenomenon!