Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, IanT said:

Sadly we are closing fast on the point where the only way forward in terms of modelled weather is downgrades…

Why is that?

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec seasonal has updated 

Jan and feb look much more sceuro high heights anoms - you would think that this must mean some opportunities for scandi highs 

seasonals are generally tenuous in any case …. And we don’t see the weekly detail that I assume the met can 

It's improved on last month's run. A good trend to see.

I think you are correct, it will be seeing the potential for a Scandi HP at some point.

[Uncertainty]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec seasonal has updated 

Jan and feb look much more sceuro high heights anoms - you would think that this must mean some opportunities for scandi highs 

seasonals are generally tenuous in any case …. And we don’t see the weekly detail that I assume the met can 

 

Bit of a shift from last months update!

Are you suggesting the Jan / Feb period to be the most sceuro  blue? E.g does March dampen the signal? Are you able to post the monthly breakdowns ( I know the rules on paywalls - even just a snippet would be most welcome!)

Interestingly, Cansips moved to something similar esp Jan and Feb to some extent 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Uncertainty

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

 

Bit of a shift from last months update!

Are you suggesting the Jan / Feb period to be the most sceuro  blue? E.g does March dampen the signal? Are you able to post the monthly breakdowns ( I know the rules on paywalls - even just a snippet would be most welcome!)

Interestingly, Cansips moved to something similar esp Jan and Feb to some extent 

Intriguing that the seasonal modelling, en masse, seem to be turning their backs on thoughts of the Atlantic ruling January. The CFS is also now putting a big HP anomaly to our E.

[throwoff]

45 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Cold, but mainly dry!

With a pool of warmish water to our east those of us on the coast could still see some real run and games 

[throwoff]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Lots of times... But only when it's cold enough to snow!

True, but we are getting dangerously close to now casting territory for this event, in all the years I’ve been on here the one lesson that’s stuck is that once the cold is in and established (which I am positive we are heading into now) the models become more unreliable than ever, things change at the drop of a hat

[TSNWK]

icon even more keen to bring the low towards us and as the jet frames show..that the low will riding… 120 18z and 12612z right and clear to see is further  north and east..on 18z

Edited December 5, 2022 by TSNWK

[Lukesluckybunch]

13 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

icon even more keen to bring the low towards us and as the jet frames show..that the low will riding… 120 18z and 12612z right and clear to see is further  north and east..on 18z

Is this a good thing?

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Is this a good thing?

Not in my view.. as low will get further towards us and that is shown on 500 plots.. 

[IanT]

54 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Why is that?

Because the model output today is so good..!

[lorenzo]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Mean may be hiding clusters which would be more wintry. Not surprised to see a high anom to our nw 

Crikey - another bookmark to add there then ! I can't keep up - bring back the days when the only morsel of detail we had was one of these !

 
 

Am kidding obvs, amazing amount of data now. The weekly post-xmas is of interest, the u progression as much as not definitive SSW is not definitive in the other direction either. No classical VI here. 

 

And, we have the MJO trend which will be subject of some amount of churn for I think at least until the next weekly run. Lots to factor in for the West Pacific on the rebound from the -EAMT, GFS and GEFS vs ECM always gives us classic model divergence and given the new GFS isn't exactly going down a tropical storm then would expect this to be exacerbated this year.

 

That's all way ahead for now. So, back to how long the cold entrenches, fax charts and polar low spotting! Enjoy the cold and hopefully some of the white stuff too if you are in the right spot.

As a PS - for those looking for the top-down signatures for SSW - check the NetWx GFS with the 1hPa addition today - could prove really helpful given other sites are off-line this season.

[bluearmy]

48 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

 

Bit of a shift from last months update!

Are you suggesting the Jan / Feb period to be the most sceuro  blue? E.g does March dampen the signal? Are you able to post the monthly breakdowns ( I know the rules on paywalls - even just a snippet would be most welcome!)

Interestingly, Cansips moved to something similar esp Jan and Feb to some extent 

 

     

March skews the three month to the nw 

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Not in my view.. as low will get further towards us and that is shown on 500 plots.. 

Well if it does come so close to the uk..we will obviously want it to slide under into southeast europe.like ECM

[LightningLover]

Gentle Easterly setting in at just 111 hours on the 18z GFS! (Sorry I have no charts)

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Mean may be hiding clusters which would be more wintry. Not surprised to see a high anom to our nw 

I wish they would publish these with anomalies marked on them, as they do with the shorter range clusters... I am too rookie to infer where they are from the height contours

Edited December 5, 2022 by RainAllNight

[Lukesluckybunch]

18z has easterly forming at 120h and the low in atlantic is further west!

[Ali1977]

T120 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Nice little streamer popped up for Saturday

[Ice Day]

Subtle improvement on the pub run at 120.  More of an easterly component bringing colder air with it..... steady as she goes

 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Ice Day

[feb1991blizzard]

GET IN - That's more like it

[Derecho]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Subtle improvement on the pub run at 120.  More of an easterly component bring colder air with it..... steady as she goes

 

Azores low a little further west and more cold pooling over Scandi, not sure if it'll impact things further along but nice little things to see in the short term.

[Uncertainty]

Hmm… big changes as early as 120. V cold air to our east incoming…

Edited December 5, 2022 by Uncertainty

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GET IN - That's more like it

Looks quite an unstable air mass that....

[Ali1977]

Well this is defo a little upgrade on cold, and as mentioned this brings potential of more snow off the North Sea - on a very cold wind !! 

[Decemberof2010]

Colder out east on the 18z