Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Uhhh, the 18z... @alexisj9, do you think we need to wake the others..?

Going to sleep now, I hope there's been an interesting UKMO by the time I wake up again!

Hmm, it doesn't look like my post aged so well! 

Edited December 18, 2022 by RainAllNight

[Snowmad79]

37 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Good news folks..I think the messiah of mogreps which is me states a growing set of colder runs from the North with time..Birmingham for instance pushes closer to -10 with some runs.

I think we could be going colder again.. whisper it quietly.

Come on folks I'm working overtime to get these colder runs further South.

No point getting peoples hopes up with ens like these. They are now constistently showing any decent cold as "blips" and extending the period of time that uppers sit around 0c which is not good at all unless you want coldish and wet muck.  One thing that always worries me is the errodation of heights over GL as the PV starts to Organise in its prefered winter location, which is looking increasingly likely imho.

PS. where is the xmas grinch emoji ?

[Paul]

Way too much sniping and bickering in here today. Please stop, this isn't Twitter you know...

[Rain All Night]

10 minutes ago, Paul said:

Way too much sniping and bickering in here today. Please stop, this isn't Twitter you know...

New chase, new thread?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Snowmad79 said:

No point getting peoples hopes up with ens like these. They are now constistently showing any decent cold as "blips" and extending the period of time that uppers sit around 0c which is not good at all unless you want coldish and wet muck.  One thing that always worries me is the errodation of heights over GL as the PV starts to Organise in its prefered winter location, which is looking increasingly likely imho.

PS. where is the xmas grinch emoji ?

Seriously mate. Those ens are a big improvement on the other day. They clearly show a colder trend up North and some hints of more colder runs further South. We can't say at this stage if the PV will get its act together and locate over Greenland...its possible but so is it remaining  disorganised...coupled with that met update of colder spells being  more probable than normal for January,you have to wonder if they are seeing a signal for it to remain more favourable.

I think far to many get far to stressed in here at times.

[alexisj9]

25 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Hmm, it doesn't look like my post aged so well! 

Did think it would lol, it been getting colder by the end of this mild spell now, since 6z yesterday. But no one is looking that close.

[nick sussex]

The ECM 06 hrs control run brings the cold air about 150 miles further south at T132 hrs .

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

 this isn't Twitter you know...

 Best thing I've heard on here all day...

Well it's now one week till Christmas and sorry everyone but still a little ill so no energy for a long post but long term is looking very interesting. Almost every day it seems to keep getting upgraded. We've now started to see the initial -VE zonal anomaly setup forming in the 30W-0 area just above the Tropics which is around the Atlantic area so maybe the North America low will only have impact of driving the jet near it (and you can see that in the initial 90W-60W jet 'packet' moving across to the mid Atlantic area over time) but how much that seems to effect the zonal wind could be debated over as the other side of the coin is that It just pushes the other side of the zonal wind anomalies slightly further West.

 

And anyway, this isn't even in the area our weather 'takes place' it's just a good long term indicator. If we look at the meridional wind anomalies we can see the much weaker winds that almost perfectly line up with Greenland (pretty much bang on 45°) towards Christmas time and are getting stronger, in this situation it's not a west based Oscillation either but it's too far out to really take to much notice of the basing. So a possibility of a decently strong Greenland blocking just on from Christmas may arise.

Let's see how this evolves though because there's no real way this has got the forecast perfect of course, its just another way of looking at the weather just like the GFS is. I'm proffering it right now but that's because I find it easier to understand it as a basic pattern signal and I don't understand how to interpret models as much right now. So its great all of you offering insight onto each run.

[E17boy]

There seems to have been a lot of bickering on here today. So I just wanted to be blunt to the point on this post. We have just had a cold spell for which we should be grateful for. Some unlucky ones may just have seen frost whilst some others have seen a decent snowfall and a good covering for a week without it melting. Here in NE London the snow has stuck around for a week. To get this cold early in the season has been a bonus taking into account that not many of our Decembers have produced a lot apart from the odd years eg 2010 and a few others.

To be realistic and honest to ourselves we have to accept that yes it is a shame but sadly milder weather is making inroads today. Our cold will not last forever for the entire winter. Yes we may now have to endure a period of maybe a week or several weeks with a weather pattern from a milder source . However we cannot predict what will be the situation in a weeks time it may change or it may not. 
 

There is no point stressing at this stage we have only gone through 17 days of this season and we have a whole winter left to go through yet. Unfortunately there will be ups and downs in this journey but we cannot change the weather.

Let’s just get through this mild period if it’s meant to happen and hopefully this winter will throw something more better in the coming days.

I don’t see any return to severe wintry weather in the coming days yet but everything can change tomorrow such is our weather.

Have a great day all

[Snowmad79]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Seriously mate. Those ens are a big improvement on the other day. They clearly show a colder trend up North and some hints of more colder runs further South. We can't say at this stage if the PV will get its act together and locate over Greenland...its possible but so is it remaining  disorganised...coupled with that met update of colder spells being  more probable than normal for January,you have to wonder if they are seeing a signal for it to remain more favourable.

I think far to many get far to stressed in here at times.

Thanks, Matt. Not being negative as there are some positives to take away from all modelling and ens but personally I am not seeing anything to get excited about at this moment in time. Scotland is always in or around colder air at this time of year and tend to get the best out it in terms of snowy weather when the rest of us do poorly. The ens you posted for birmingham are especially telling for me.

The thing about the PV is when most people talk about it they use the 850 charts to say it's disorganised/split etc but don't look at the other available charts like this. I am no expert obviously but it is becoming more circular in its favoured postion which strengthens westerlies around the globe which can prevent proper GL and Scandi HP setups. Winter has only really just got started so definitly not the end of the world

[Snowmadsam]

47 minutes ago, Paul said:

Way too much sniping and bickering in here today. Please stop, this isn't Twitter you know...

The reason why I left it!

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM 06 hrs control run brings the cold air about 150 miles further south at T132 hrs .

Still way too much twoing the throwing with runs again to emphasise this isn’t a NORMAL pattern

[Cuban Zebra]

I think we all need to chill out and remember we are just over 2 weeks into meteorological winter with 3 months left! Most of us have had more snow and cold than all of last winter already with a global set up that could potentially deliver much more!!

[DOdo]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Re- post... and tbh the steps have gone a little further ahead since the 6z- some of the posts “ of dread still- And always will baffle me”. There’s PLENTY to be optimistic about, if colder snowier weather is ya thing!...I’ll leave this here until the nxt suites @12z...

My exact sentiments too early to throw in the towel just yet

[Jimmyh]

I like others have been on this forum for a long time 14 years in fact in 2009. It reminds me sometimes of the old BBC forum back in the day will it snow or not. There was always the mild rampers and the snow fans. In those days we only had weather forecasts on the TV and stuff to watch and get excited by. I remember Iver the last 14 years ish that I have never ever seen a NH profile like this. The Vortex on holiday in Asian side. This will take many more runs and calmness to reach for. We have lost so many clam posters because of petty sniping or the charts don't show what we all want to see. Let's try and let everyone have their opinion as far away from what ever people want. If peeps post FI stuff then so be. Experienced readers and posters aside no the likelihood of that coming to fruition is.... when we look for trends. I am still learning and am sad that at when a cold spell ends we don't keep calm and carry on. Snow to this depth and longevity in South East London is a such a rarity. 

I will continue to read and learn more but let's remember everyone is entitled to their sights and opinions 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, DOdo said:

My exact sentiments too early to throw in the towel just yet

Aye, to the towel... But the toys?   And they even added a gratuitous apostrophe!

Meanwhile, I must be the only one looking forward to this:  

[Rain All Night]

I'm going to post some grabs from this morning's EPS while we wait for some new ops, because I thought they look great at day 10 for anyone like me who mainly just wants to not see a raging Atlantic flow.

The greatest spread is to our west and northwest, this is the case with the GFS and GEM ensemble suites as well this morning.

The two cluster reps for the middle of Christmas week are jet-free...

...and look, they're cold too!

The jet signal stops being zonal around Christmas Day, and then fades completely through Christmas week.

P.S. anyone know how to make the annoying static thumbnail not come back when I delete it?!

Edited December 18, 2022 by RainAllNight

[Martz86]

I've not been following the weather recently but a number of weeks ago I heard talk of a potential SSW event, is that still on the cards, have we had it or did nothing materialize? Grats 

[DOdo]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, to the towel... But the toys?   And they even added a gratuitous apostrophe!

Meanwhile, I must be the only one looking forward to this:  

I am too,  no harm in a tiny break fromn the cold and frost. 

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

I'm going to post some grabs from this morning's EPS while we wait for some new ops, because I thought they look great at day 10 for anyone like me who mainly just wants to not see a raging Atlantic flow.

The greatest spread is to our west and northwest, this is the case with the GFS and GEM ensemble suites as well this morning.

The two cluster reps for the middle of Christmas week are jet-free...

...and look, they're cold too!

The jet signal stops being zonal around Christmas Day, and then fades completely through Christmas week.

Wow, that’s quite something.

[mushymanrob]

this has been one of the most impressive december cold spells regardless of snow or no snow. the CET is (to yesterday) 0.4c , that makes this decembers cold spell equal to the tenth coldest december since 1659, and whilst its a long way behind 2010s -0.7c , its only 0.1c behind 1981!
ok, thats not the full months tally and it will go up as less cold arrives. but it does illustrate how cold it has been...

[danm]

52 minutes ago, E17boy said:

There seems to have been a lot of bickering on here today. So I just wanted to be blunt to the point on this post. We have just had a cold spell for which we should be grateful for. Some unlucky ones may just have seen frost whilst some others have seen a decent snowfall and a good covering for a week without it melting. Here in NE London the snow has stuck around for a week. To get this cold early in the season has been a bonus taking into account that not many of our Decembers have produced a lot apart from the odd years eg 2010 and a few others.

To be realistic and honest to ourselves we have to accept that yes it is a shame but sadly milder weather is making inroads today. Our cold will not last forever for the entire winter. Yes we may now have to endure a period of maybe a week or several weeks with a weather pattern from a milder source . However we cannot predict what will be the situation in a weeks time it may change or it may not. 
 

There is no point stressing at this stage we have only gone through 17 days of this season and we have a whole winter left to go through yet. Unfortunately there will be ups and downs in this journey but we cannot change the weather.

Let’s just get through this mild period if it’s meant to happen and hopefully this winter will throw something more better in the coming days.

I don’t see any return to severe wintry weather in the coming days yet but everything can change tomorrow such is our weather.

Have a great day all

Totally agree. It’s been a fantastic start to December with a week of thick lying snow here and almost no snow melt until yesterday. That is quite unusual for down here, especially this early in the season. However I’m aware that we got a big stroke of luck in the SE with that low pressure system crossing our region last Sunday. Right place, right time. Also fully appreciate others have seen nothing more than frosts and fog, which while nice and far better than wind and rain, is still not what most of us on here crave. Northern Scotland and parts of the West Country (near Stroud in particular) also seem to have done very well. I can fully understand the frustration of those who have not seen any snow, I’d also be feeling the same way.

Looking ahead, we obviously have a much milder week coming up for most, but there are some signs of things turning colder again towards the end of next week, especially further north. Hopefully this will filter down south for all. 

If we can drain away those heights from Europe and continue to see amplification then it won’t take huge adjustments for us to tap into some deep cold again. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by danm

[Battleground Snow]

Icon for Xmas day, definitely an improvement.

Cold pretty far south

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon for Xmas day, definitely an improvement.

Cold pretty far south

That will do nicely  

[Drifter]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

That will do nicely  

200 miles further south please. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

200 miles further south please. 

Yes good point