Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[tight isobar]

Great snap.. the whole uk in cold- v- cold air by Xmas evening... snow potential not worth looking for in any detail at this range.

Edited December 18, 2022 by tight isobar

[Johnp]

Snow in to southern england and wales on Xmas evening 

[Mucka]

Snow moving into the S Christmas evening/night.

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

But the subsequent charts literally do show the cold coming south over us?

Indeed, they do:    

[tight isobar]

Just now, Mucka said:

Snow moving into the S Christmas evening/night.

 

All speculative- but that would be a notable event... 1 thing that gains big momentum.. is the steps we continue to take to entrenched cold- up n, down the land for the start of the festive period!

[Jan 87]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Snow moving into the S Christmas evening/night.

 

Looks the same as the control run of the 06z

[geordiekev]

Feast from the NE anyone

[SteveB]

I hear people saying that nothing can come down from the North while there are heights to the South. Why can't they, why can't the heights just be push out of the way?

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Feast from the NE anyone

Be nice. But not toppling high enough up on this run

[tight isobar]

Just now, Vikos said:

btw mother of nor’easter in the states… just saying…

Indeed it is but this snap is for 22 December- the uks interest is from 23/24- onwards!

[Jan 87]

typical

You get a good GFS and then GEM goes pete tong!

Lets hope for cold option from ECM later

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, SteveB said:

I hear people saying that nothing can come down from the North while there are heights to the South. Why can't they, why can't the heights just be push out of the way?

Exactly - they can. There’s a lot of myths in model watching ‘lore’. 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

btw mother of nor’easter in the states… just saying…

Some newsworthy blizzards for some states in the run up to Xmas one would think.

[Jason M]

I suppose its possible but with the Iberian heights firmly in place I'm just not buying what GFS is selling. There is an envelope here for Xmas and I suspect this is the far extreme cold end of it. Not impossible, but very unlikely IMHO.

I suspect it will adjust northwards over the next few runs. Sticking my neck out here I'm going Northern England northwards, with the cold air making little impact in the South.

[Tim Bland]

Would be a lot of happy folk in the south Christmas evening…Although it might mean in the in-laws have to stay over

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Be nice. But not toppling high enough up on this run. Actually hold that.. it’s giving it darn good go and some dark blues are encroaching on 850

Edited December 18, 2022 by TSNWK

[snowbob]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Would be a lot of happy folk in the south Christmas evening…Although it might mean in the in-laws have to stay over

Bank

get in

[Snowmadsam]

“Ok, it’s happening, stay calm. STAY BEEP CALM” - Michael Scott

its one run, let’s see how it develops 

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I hear people saying that nothing can come down from the North while there are heights to the South. Why can't they, why can't the heights just be push out of the way?

Experience shows us they rarely do. Its very rare to get anything other than a very brief glancing northerly with a significant area of high pressure over Spain. 

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I suppose its possible but with the Iberian heights firmly in place I'm just not buying what GFS is selling. There is an envelope here for Xmas and I suspect this is the far extreme cold end of it. Not impossible, but very unlikely IMHO.

I suspect it will adjust northwards over the next few runs. Sticking my neck out here I'm going Northern England northwards, with the cold air making little impact in the South.

By that rationale, Iberian heights would be there forever. They have to go sooner or later, so why not be nudged out of the way by winds coming down from the north?

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Would be a lot of happy folk in the south Christmas evening…Although it might mean in the in-laws have to stay over

I wouldn’t ask for anything else from Santa if he delivered that over my house this year. Would be magical to spend the day at relatives and then open the door to navigate a winter wonderland on the way home. 

[mountain shadow]

UKMO is not going to be wrong at this range, so chances of a White Christmas are pretty slim for most I think.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 hours ago, joggs said:

I'm not being funny Blast,but last week you were banging the prolonged cold drum and making it out you were sure winter Armageddon was around the corner.

Alot, without posting proof of back up.

Please could you start explaining why?

And showing some substance to your posts please?.

Have a look at my LRF….in the winter forecast thread.  Nothing has changed overall.  Armageddon?  When have I forecast armageddon except commenting on a run….not a forecast, but what a run shows? Nice and Easy fell yeh?   And prolonged cold isn’t off the table…a blip doesn’t end prolonged cold 

 

BFTP

Edited December 18, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

It's not impossible... to have your toes frozen off!  

Edited December 18, 2022 by Norrance
Language

[Battleground Snow]

Gfs so close to doing what me and @nick sussex were talking about earlier.

[January Snowstorm]

The GEM isn't great and the ukmo is poorer than this morning. So for me it's a move sideways and nothing is resolved. The gfs is better and the best way forward but needs support!