Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Tim Bland]

Heavy snow in the south west…Don’t forget this all just for fun at this stage, everything could shift north or south 100s of miles 

[legritter]

Hi gang,good looking gfs so far .Ecm tonight I'll be behind the settee with the dog as he gets nervous about charts in winter like me .great posts on great forum cheers and sausage baps for all , catch-up later all .

[January Snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Heavy snow in the south west…Don’t forget this all just for fun at this stage, everything could shift north or south 100s of miles 

Or disappear in 6 hours time lol

Fun to watch anyway

[SLEETY]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

UKMO is not going to be wrong at this range, so chances of a White Christmas are pretty slim for most I think.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ukmo been plenty wrong at thhat timeframe before as have the other models  to be fair

At the timeframe being discussed more runs are needed

 

[Jason M]

Just now, Johnp said:

By that rationale, Iberian heights would be there forever. They have to go sooner or later, so why not be nudged out of the way by winds coming down from the north?

You miss my point. This isn't about whether those heights stay or go. The issue here is that the GFS is showing snow over the far South on Xmas evening with a great big fat Iberian high in place. Its just my opinion but the odds of that happening are remote at best. 

If we start to see snow being modelled in conjunction with those heights having relented that's very different! I might be proved wrong (hope so), but this just looks to me like nonsense.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

The GEM isn't great and the ukmo is poorer than this morning. So for me it's a move sideways and nothing is resolved. The gfs is better and the best way forward but needs support!

I doubt people will hang their hats on a gfs op run ………. Oh wait ! 

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

UKMO is not going to be wrong at this range, so chances of a White Christmas are pretty slim for most I think.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But it will different again tomorrow morning. The output i quite fluid as far as UK Xmas weather goes

It could go either way but you would favour UKMO if ECM backs it.

[Tim Bland]

Could be a BFTE for new year?! 

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

You miss my point. This isn't about whether those heights stay or go. The issue here is that the GFS is showing snow over the far South on Xmas evening with a great big fat Iberian high in place. Its just my opinion but the odds of that happening are remote at best. 

If we start to see snow being modelled in conjunction with those heights having relented that's very different! I might be proved wrong (hope so), but this just looks to me like nonsense.

Oh don’t get me wrong, I’m 99% sure this will all be gone by the time the 18z rolls around

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Could be a BFTE for new year?! 

But high is starting to slide eastwards.. I’m I missing something 

[Methuselah]

By T+240 he GFS 12Z has become the Tena Man run!

    

[Snowmadsam]

It’s the express, they need someone to quote for their front page tomorrow  

“SNOWMAGGADON FOR CHRISTMAS DAY”

———————

no but in all seriousness, let’s see if there is continuity in the longer term

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But high is starting to slide eastwards.. I’m I missing something 

All academic at this point with such inter run variations,  but all the ingredients are there..  just need the scandi high to stick and the low to the SW to slide SE a bit

[Mucka]

GFS ensemble mean for Xmas eve has the cold slightly further S again (and moving S)

[Johnp]

Looks like a more decisive shift to cold for the Xmas/Boxing Day on the GEFS. 

[GSP]

When you compare such a change in just one six hourly run, there’s all to play for yet!

[January Snowstorm]

This time last year such a slack flow from the North would barely have delivered minus 5 uppers. But because of the last cold spell being so severe sea temps have dropped quite a bit meaning the much colder uppers are able to flood South

[Cold Winter Night]

Just a little more latitude at 264h and you have a powerful Easterly at 264h...

...that would have been followed by the Atlantic sliding under:

Close to greatness. But still no sigar.

To have the Scandi height rises popping up after Christmas keeps the hope alive.

[Rain All Night]

Sorry guys, not what you were hoping for, it's just like T+168 on the ECM was this morning.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Sorry guys, not what you were hoping for, it's just like T+168 on the ECM was this morning.

That’s an ugly high over Europe about to destroy winter for the UK.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Sorry guys, not what you were hoping for, it's just like T+168 on the ECM was this morning.

Didn't look at the models yesterday but wasn't the UKMO looking the best of the lot at 168?!

[Mike Poole]

The Christmas situation (and probably quite a bit beyond) seems to rest once again on how the models handle the lows in the atlantic in the days running up.  The 3 options seem to be as shown by GFS, UKMO and GEM at T168:

GFS leaves a very shallow feature that doesn’t impede the cold flow to the UK, UKMO can’t decouple this system from the rest of the mess of lows, GEM does decouple it, but it is still quite strong and attempts to put up a ridge ahead of it.  The behaviour of this influences the progress of cold to the UK, and also is indicated in inflating the euro high (particularly UKMO).

GEFS take at T168:

Mixed bag, but seem to me to favour the GFS take, which is consistent with the positive trend towards cold seen in recent suites.

[Don]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

That’s an ugly high over Europe about to destroy winter for the UK.

Hope not as that will mean the likes of you and me will have likely missed our opportunity for snow at this early stage in winter!!

[TSNWK]

Subjective I guess.. but for some reason ukm 144/and 168 never inspire confidence..just feel like they flap around to much..

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, to the towel... But the toys?   And they even added a gratuitous apostrophe!

Meanwhile, I must be the only one looking forward to this:  

Pete..do not pass go...do not collect £200..im even removing your get out of jail free card for salavating over such mild charts!

UKMO and we have some very impressive uppers towards the NE...theres gonna be a boundary setting up this Xmas.  Some lucky sods will get snow...im not sure who,but I wouldn't be suprised to see a white Xmas cropping up for a few.

And he'll yeh that's so much better than last year!

And guess what no change from the met..Still colder spells being more likely than normal in the weeks ahead!

I'm happy enough to pull a cracker stuff myself with turkey and even a lovely piece of trifle right now...hell I may even kisss myself under the mistletoe cause no other bugger will do it!

So a mild few days before slowly going colder after mid week...areas further North getting Snow showers I would have thought!