Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Rain All Night]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think most coldies are happy to see snow in March but expectations need to be lowered as to what that can normally deliver .

Those spells in 2013 and 2018 were incredibly rare .

 

So rare they happened twice in five years! 

[Rob 79812010]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, let's hope so, Fred. Roll on 2018 -- I'd be five-years younger! 

2018 was amazing! Not the deepest snow I remember in Manc but when it snowed it was memorable!  Minus 5 when it snowed and was powdery! We kept having the blowy snow and then it came over the pennines and gave us 3 inches which believe it or not is mega for Manchester!!  

[Cambrian]

GEM has put in a decent shift today. The 12z ensemble mean keeps the faith with steps in the right direction between days 10 and 15. Part of the loss of Canadian lobe PV strength is undoubtedly due to the greater fuzziness involved with working the mean of the greater spread observed as time goes by, but that is still a sharp loss, along with a northward movement of the core.

Day 10

  

Day 15

  

The movement south of lower heights across Europe is also clear. Even the mean uppers show a marked drop, across the UK and Ireland, and well down south into Europe, a lot of cold beginning to slip down off the pole.

All a long way off for the numerical models, and the signal by no means properly cold (yet), but pleasingly, the timing of the loss of low heights over Southern Greenland shown on the mean anomaly for around the 24th is bang on with the formidable signal for Atlantic ridging in tonight’s ECM weather regimes forecast (that’s a lot of purple!), which is then largely blocked thereafter, so positive signs beginning to appear for some interesting times to come over the next few weeks heading into March. 

 

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

So rare they happened twice in five years! 

When was the last one before 2013?

[January Snowstorm]

40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think most coldies are happy to see snow in March but expectations need to be lowered as to what that can normally deliver .

Those spells in 2013 and 2018 were incredibly rare .

 

Indeed Nick, but the last ten years have been notable for historically rare events now happening more often! Whether it be extreme heat, cold, wet, stormy 1 in 100 year events are now happening like every 10 years.

For me am liking the trend over the last 24 hours and I think we could well see notable weather by around the 24/25 of February.

[January Snowstorm]

20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

When was the last one before 2013?

2010

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

2010

I was talking about march. December 2010 was good though.

From memory snow in London around march was in 2001 probably. There was the strange march where there was a cold spell with snow just in the SE and it was warm with SW winds in the west and north one spring, but that wasn't a nation wide cold spell.

Edited February 9, 2023 by alexisj9

[January Snowstorm]

We often get snow showers here in March, falling snow that is. In fact it happens nearly every year! Disruptive snow that hangs around less so but obviously 2018 was awesome. My motto is if it happened once it can happen again!

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

We often get snow showers here in March, falling snow that is. In fact it happens nearly every year! Disruptive snow that hangs around less so but obviously 2018 was awesome. My motto is if it happened once it can happen again!

Oh yes there is no doubt about that 

[andymusic]

slight easterly appearing on the 17th Feb now on tonight's gfs 18z

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, andymusic said:

slight easterly appearing on the 17th Feb now on tonight's gfs 18z

Slight easterly for the south western edge of Russia maybe. Certainly not us. 

[Mike Poole]

59 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Maybe I’m jinxing things but I’ve seen a lot and this major SSW looks very favourable to me for European cold, I’d say much more so than North America, lots been said about displacement not good for U.K. cold well the displaced vortex is being pushed right to edge in Russia this is best possible place. If I was a betting man I’d say the future is -NAO Greenland block and a tanking -AO. 

 

 

I think with a split, it is quite likely that one of the vortices ends up in roughly this position, with the other too far away to matter, and a ridge between them.  With a displacement, the vortex obviously ends up in only one place and it may very well not be a favourable one.  I agree that doesn’t look to be the case on this occasion (touch wood!) and the Greenland block does look favourite to me too.

[Don]

48 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

When was the last one before 2013?

March 2006 was pretty good for some away from the south.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

So rare they happened twice in five years! 

Bump...

 and 5 years from the 2018 spell,....just saying

2023 to be concluded

one thing is for sure the NWP'S is going to have wild swings in the next 2-3 weeks,..vortex shard placement will be the key on where it sits

i am in for the last hurrah ride,...buckle up.

Edit: in fact the latest gfs has a bit of promise with lower heights under the block here at 300.

but in all honesty,...the gfs/gefs won't show anything strat-trop related until past what they show at 16 days,anything short of that would be a bonus

let the ride begin.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

i am in for the last hurrah ride,...buckle up.

Last chance saloon for to see more than a dusting IMBY this winter/early spring!

[andymusic]

36 minutes ago, andymusic said:

slight easterly appearing on the 17th Feb now on tonight's gfs 18z

Although it seems to be further into the run a dead in the water HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK lol

[feb1991blizzard]

bullseye march. if verification & downwelling.

[Ladyofthestorm]

A brief resume of last week and this week's zonal winds forecast. 

Reversal on the way. 

[feb1991blizzard]

-14c off a westerly anyone? - Liverpool & Preston buried.

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Snow in March is statistically more likely than snow in December and January! I will leave it there for now.

I'm liking the direction of travel,there's much to be decided just yet and there's bound to be a few forks in the road...but hey its the UK we are used to it.

Rember Griff who used to post on here? Well ive stole his charts for my update... just told him it's about time he returned! 

Come to think of it we have a few of the old guard missing in action...come on guys..come join the party.

December perhaps yes, January no. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

For some fun I have created the composites for the following months 

March 2013 

March 2018 

December 2010 

February 2021 

December 2022 

 

 

[Nick2373]

 

So the 18z delivers pretty much the same above avenge from the 15th, then remaining above out to the 25th no cold on the horizon yet.  

[Tills]

10 hours ago, Uncertainty said:

I think you’re gonna be right  Pete. We’ve said it all along. March is going to be mental

 

 

I came on here to see what the models outputs are showing us for the last two weeks of winter.

So I have a genuine question.

Is this truly a model output discussion thread?

Or is it a teleconnection SSW thread seeking upstream signals that might [possibly] affect our weather some time in the distant future?

xx

[winterof79]

 

Trending colder

[winterof79]

GEFS beginning to suggest a pressure build to our W/NW

 

 

Meteociel - Panel GEFS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by winterof79