Model Output Discussion - Into February

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Entirely tongue-in-cheek Fred... So, no need to get all tetchy: No one knows what the weather will be doing in eight weeks' time. Not even those who've spent years learning the subject?

Bad couple of Days Pete…apologies 

 

Fred

[ANYWEATHER]

11 hours ago, Snowmut said:

Bonjour!....CFS starting to sniff something! 

 Lets hope its not Bull 

The CFS is always sniffing something......  The next ten days at least looks like a Borefest for the south at least,  of course things will change.....

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps extended is rather flatter than the 00z to our west - clusters awaited 

That will be due to the +NAO cluster 2 in the T264+ timeframe at day 15:

Pretty much a 3 way split, and the other clusters (1&3) maintain the signal for Atlantic ridge to -NAO of the 0z.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Bad couple of Days Pete…apologies 

 

Fred

Hey, no probs! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

39 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Bonjour!....CFS starting to sniff something! 

 Lets hope its not Bull 

It’s possible/probable that we have to wait until this timescale.  As outlandish as it may seem, that doesn’t look ‘too OTT’ to me.  Massive ‘look back’ solar signal for this….I hope it comes off, then there may be something in my madness

 

BFTP

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That will be due to the +NAO cluster 2 in the T264+ timeframe at day 15:

Pretty much a 3 way split, and the other clusters (1&3) maintain the signal for Atlantic ridge to -NAO of the 0z.

They’re not as good as this morning unfortunately. 

This is turning into Waiting for Godot ! 

If the MJO gets into a favourable phase and the SSW lands and the models continue to churn out this crud then I will be calling it a day for wintry prospects .

Founder member CAS Coldies Against Slush !

Edited February 9, 2023 by nick sussex

[Uncertainty]

I think you’re gonna be right  Pete. We’ve said it all along. March is going to be mental.

 

 

I still think the big action is over 15 days away, and the murmurings in the eps will continue to be just that for a time. But from the last week in Feb onwards, it’s going to be   Very, very interesting.

 

Tropical, solar,  strat  and now extended modelling support for a long await blocking spell.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Uncertainty

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

that’s not without interest.  The shift of HP positioning is the point.  Not iminent freeze but one can see the pull away from the slug.  Yep that’s ok with me

 

 BFTP

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s possible/probable that we have to wait until this timescale.  As outlandish as it may seem, that doesn’t look ‘too OTT’ to me.  Massive ‘look back’ solar signal for this….I hope it comes off, then there may be something in my madness

 

BFTP

Well, let's hope so, Fred. Roll on 2018 -- I'd be five-years younger! 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

I think you’re gonna be right  Pete. We’ve said it all along. March is going to be mental.

 

 

I still think the big action is over 15 days away, and the murmurings in the eps will continue to be just that for a time. But from the last week in Feb onwards, it’s going to be   Very, very interesting.

 

Tropical, solar,  strat  and now extended modelling support for a long await blocking spell.

Another interesting update from the EC46.  I wonder if the Met Office will upgrade any cold potential in their extended outlook tomorrow?  

[Mike Poole]

Indeed, as far as the strat is concerned, not 1 member has a minimum below -5 m/s:

2 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

I think you’re gonna be right after Pete. We’ve said it all along. March is going to be mental.

 

 

I still think the big action is over 15 days away, and the murmurings in the eps will continue to be just that for a time. But from the last week in Feb onwards, it’s going to be   Very, very interesting.

 

Tropical, solar,  strat  and now extended modelling support for a long await blocking spell.

Indeed, on the zonal winds, not one member has a minimum of above -5 m/s.

And the big shift on the regimes chart is to the (purple) Atlantic RIdge regime initially, which looks consistent with the expected displacement of the strat vortex.  So we look towards Greenland first…

[Don]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, let's hope so, Fred. Roll on 2018 -- I'd be five-years younger! 

That would be good too, don't need to get any older now! 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Don

[lassie23]

14 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The CFS is always sniffing something.....stands for  Crap  Forecasting  System.  The next ten days at least looks like a Borefest for the south at least,  of course things will change.....

I think it's been on the pa pa johns

[Chesil View]

25 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The CFS is always sniffing something.....stands for  Crap  Forecasting  System.  The next ten days at least looks like a Borefest for the south at least,  of course things will change.....

It also stands for Correctly Forecasting Sensational beast from the east 2018 which it did so consistently from December 2017 onwards.

[minus10]

Like the direction of travel of 12z ec mean..

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Like the direction of travel of 12z ec mean..

But will it go below normal before next Christmas? 

[bluearmy]

Whilst the mean on the ec46 week 3 looks a bit meh with the ridge too far to the east, the clusters offers a greeny high 

weeks 4 and 5 promise a cold March based on heights and Increasingly damp 

[Rain All Night]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Whilst the mean on the ec46 week 3 looks a bit meh with the ridge too far to the east, the clusters offers a greeny high 

weeks 4 and 5 promise a cold March based on heights and Increasingly damp 

Rain damp or snow damp..? 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Rain damp or snow damp..? 

It’s march - gonna be tough to be ‘proper snow’ 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst the mean on the ec46 week 3 looks a bit meh with the ridge too far to the east, the clusters offers a greeny high 

weeks 4 and 5 promise a cold March based on heights and Increasingly damp 

Well, Nick, there's nae much I'd like to see less than a cold, dreich, miserable March... But, then, the weather will do whatever it'll do?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s march - gonna be tough to be ‘proper snow’ 

Unless we have date record challenging cold….and with the incredible cold around (globally Jan came in below the 1980/2010 baseline) with the continuing record busting cold in Asia and at times North American Continent….achievable

 

BFTP

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Snow in March is statistically more likely than snow in December and January! I will leave it there for now.

I'm liking the direction of travel,there's much to be decided just yet and there's bound to be a few forks in the road...but hey its the UK we are used to it.

Rember Griff who used to post on here? Well ive stole his charts for my update... just told him it's about time he returned! 

Come to think of it we have a few of the old guard missing in action...come on guys..come join the party.

[Trom]

1 hour ago, Uncertainty said:

I think you’re gonna be right  Pete. We’ve said it all along. March is going to be mental.

 

 

I still think the big action is over 15 days away, and the murmurings in the eps will continue to be just that for a time. But from the last week in Feb onwards, it’s going to be   Very, very interesting.

 

Tropical, solar,  strat  and now extended modelling support for a long await blocking spell.

7 days to the reversal and then 2 weeks to 2 months for the impact on the trop.  So even with a quick response, we're looking at 21 days.  I also remember the models having a lot of fluctuation/volatility when previous SSW events occurred.  So I'm thinking at some point in March we will see the impacts. 

[nick sussex]

I think most coldies are happy to see snow in March but expectations need to be lowered as to what that can normally deliver .

Those spells in 2013 and 2018 were incredibly rare .

 

[Daniel*]

Maybe I’m jinxing things but I’ve seen a lot and this major SSW looks very favourable to me for European cold, I’d say much more so than North America, lots been said about displacement not good for U.K. cold well the displaced vortex is being pushed right to edge in Russia this is best possible place. If I was a betting man I’d say the future is -NAO Greenland block and a tanking -AO.