Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Rain All Night]

10 minutes ago, Vikos said:

 

full reversal 

I googled "FNMOC-EFS" which is one of the outputs shown on that plot, and found that it is basically NAVGEM ensembles, which I didn't know existed!

[Drifter]

Not much to write home about on the 12z runs so far. 
This could require a bit of patience!

[rwtwm]

6 hours ago, minus10 said:

Noticeable that the ens mean for 0z Ecm, Gfs and Gem is heading down back towards the LT mean ...admitadly from a fairly high point...will be looking to see if that trend continues..

..at least its a start...maybe...

I know these are a run or two out of date now, but it's notable how dry they are too... The more unsettled spell starting on the 13th seems to have faded into a slight drizzle.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Not much to write home about on the 12z runs so far. 
This could require a bit of patience!

GFS looks a corker to me - reversal a constant in the entire extended. Exceptionally weak displaced vortex at 384.

 

[lassie23]

59 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, it is Fred. But what follows is hardly a foregone conclusion... Let's contrast the SSW of 2018 with that of 2019: It's far from simple.

Anyway, Fred, you've been forecasting blizzards every month since Xmas -- 2002!

So he built the garden path we are all being led up

[Drifter]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS looks a corker to me - reversal a constant in the entire extended. Exceptionally weak displaced vortex at 384.

 

I’m more thinking with regards the trop / effects on the ground!

[johncam]

Nothing in current output to suggest anything cold rest of Feb. Still looking dry in South, hopefully not a shape of things to come as been on the whole a fairly dry winter overall in South 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BremX]

Just seen this and wondering what this would mean for our potential weather.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, it is Fred. But what follows is hardly a foregone conclusion... Let's contrast the SSW of 2018 with that of 2019: It's far from simple.

Anyway, Fred, you've been forecasting blizzards every month since Xmas -- 2002!

Pete, I’m talking about SSW, and what I think may be the resultant synoptic set up of it….which I posted on 2nd Jan and holds still.  BTW I joined in 2004/5………..we’ll leave it at that 

 

BFTP

Edited February 9, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bobd29]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Pete, I’m talking about SSW, and what I think may be the result of it….which I posted on 2nd Jan.  BTW I joined in 2005………..

 

BFTP

Hi Fred, think that was a tongue in cheek comment from Pete. FWIW I agree with your March prognosis as a 50/50 Possibility, cheers.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Bobd29
Not meant

[Purga]

Another appalling set of ENS coming out, not even any overnight inversion frosts now

Edited February 9, 2023 by Purga

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Im must be missing something here... because the MJO didnt orbit in Phase 2, it was in the COD. In phase 3 it peaked on the 29th jan, suggesting that with the lag on 10 - 12 days  (according to Grampian Weather) means that those phase 3 composites with high over Greenland should be seen now, not in another 2 weeks time... What am i misunderstanding?

 

Sometimes the transition into the associated composite patterns takes a bit longer to come to fruition (can also be a bit quicker) and with the corresponding cyclone developments in the Indian Ocean which are the phase 2 and 3 locations definitely suggests to me that it is indeed those phases rather than the 4-8 phase patterns which will be a focus following the blocking development

[Mike Poole]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS looks a corker to me - reversal a constant in the entire extended. Exceptionally weak displaced vortex at 384.

 

Yes, I was just going to post something similar.  GFS 12z (and indeed 6z) look pretty good for location of the displaced vortex, and reversal T144 right through to the end of the run - bit more consistency on that longevity now too.  

It’s also looking like the MJO might be on a route march towards the favourable phases too, I’m not counting phase 3 in that - it has messed around in the Indian Ocean for long enough, and ECM has a rapid progression now to phase 6 at amplitude; as others have said, this could be very good timing giving some assistance towards blocking from the trop drivers at the same time as the strat pattern hopefully downwells:

I’m thinking that if we get a favourable proper ridge somewhere around the Greenland area it might home in on that location other things being equal - Greenland does seem to be a bit of an ‘attractor’ if the basic pattern is right, so there might actually be a bit of margin of error there if things go well, hint from the extended EPS this morning at day 15.  Nothing obvious at the end of GFS op runs yet though.  

The SSW is nailed now, a prolonged reversal looks favourite but not yet nailed on, the displacement looks favourable as far as we can see at the moment, and we wait developments in the trop end of the month.  Interesting model watching to come…

Edited February 9, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Purga said:

Another appalling set of ENS coming out, not even any overnight inversion frosts now

As you go deeper into February you start to need deeper cold (cold uppers) to achieve a cold spell. By the latter part of Feb the solar input is about as potent as it is during mid October.

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Pete, I’m talking about SSW, and what I think may be the resultant synoptic set up of it….which I posted on 2nd Jan and holds still.  BTW I joined in 2004/5………..we’ll leave it at that 

 

BFTP

Entirely tongue-in-cheek Fred... So, no need to get all tetchy: No one knows what the weather will be doing in eight weeks' time. Not even those who've spent years learning the subject?

[Ladyofthestorm]

24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As you go deeper into February you start to need deeper cold (cold uppers) to achieve a cold spell. By the latter part of Feb the solar input is about as potent as it is during mid October.

But waters around UK are cooler 

[Spah1]

People are hoping the SSW imprints favourably on the trop possibly with a Greeny high. Well, we had one in December and most people didn’t see a flake. Hopefully if it occurs we all might get some more action. 

[Uncertainty]

We’re still a good week or so for anything of interest trop chart wise. The reversal is still nearly a week away and the mjo whilst propagating is still in the +NAO phases.

However, the 0z eps chucked a curveball with an ahead of schedule FI dominated by MAR and -NAO types

The latest GEPS is also sort of flirting with the idea

 

This is quite a new signal, the extended range has been dominated by +NAO for a while now. The GEFS are less keen but the odd member really goes for an Atlantic ridge.

It’ll be v interesting to see where the ec46 takes the 0z eps signal. Any high lat blocking was previously progged for early March so we will need to examine the week 3 and 4 signal closely to see if there’s been a change.

For the  end w2 changes, Less time in phase 4 seems the more likely reason rather than a QTR but certainly the weakening zonal winds do allow for such mjo effects to take hold…

[Uncertainty]

12 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

We’re still a good week or so for anything of interest trop chart wise. The reversal is still nearly a week away and the mjo whilst propagating is still in the +NAO phases.

However, the 0z eps chucked a curveball with an ahead of schedule FI dominated by MAR and -NAO types

The latest GEPS is also sort of flirting with the idea

 

This is quite a new signal, the extended range has been dominated by +NAO for a while now. The GEFS are less keen but the odd member really goes for an Atlantic ridge.

It’ll be v interesting to see where the ec46 takes the 0z eps signal. Any high lat blocking was previously progged for early March so we will need to examine the week 3 and 4 signal closely to see if there’s been a change.

For the  end w2 changes, Less time in phase 4 seems the more likely reason rather than a QTR but certainly the weakening zonal winds do allow for such mjo effects to take hold…

FWIW, I think the 46 will go more blocked in weeks 3 and 4. 
 

The cfs and JMA weeklies are heading that way.

 

Weeks 3 and 4 JMA weeklies

 

 

[swebby]

44 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

But waters around UK are cooler 

True, but if you are stuck under high pressure (very slack winds) and looking for an inversion to form, then the sea temperature is not going to have much impact beyond the coasts.

[SqueakheartLW]

The SSW is certain now if GEFS is to be believed

Just in case you missed it in the snapshot above

The SSW probability in GEFS is: 100%

you saw it.

SSW now nailed on

[Guest]

Bonjour!....CFS starting to sniff something! 

 Lets hope its not Bull 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Patience is gonna be key...I've a feeling there will be plenty of support from tonight's 46 for a strat buster. Take a look at the eps...we are showing signs of trending negative with the North Atlantic Oscillation! We are in the game for later this month for sure.

[Methuselah]

Indeed, Matt: 

[bluearmy]

Eps extended is rather flatter than the 00z to our west - clusters awaited