Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Maz]

36 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Ot really does and thanks so much!

Draw a low pressure area over Scandinavia with winds rotating anti-clockwise and a high pressure in the Atlantic with winds rotating clockwise.  
 
UK is between the two.  What’s the wind direction? Northerly (NW to NE depending on exact positioning). It’s still mighty cold to our North and with sea temperatures at their seasonal lowest, the cold Polar air is modified less as it moves south.  Hence, even with the strengthening sun, such a synoptic would likely lead to snow in places, even in early March.

Funnily a high pressure over or just north of Scandinavia, with low over Europe, is even colder for UK this time of year with the resultant E’ly (draw the pressure systems again).

It is one of those two, or a transition from one to another, that lots of posters here are looking out for in the longer ranges of the models.

It could happen.  Other options, not giving cold N or E flows are very much possible.  Hence the to and fro of the discussion.

[Jacob]

GEFS, please don't let us down again. 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Jacob said:

GEFS, please don't let us down again. 

It’s definitely happening - what follows though ???

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Scand trough because of its position usually allows for better advection or movement of polar maritime air and sometimes polar air over us...while at the same time pairing with an atlantic ridge reinforces that air movement...disturbances in the flow could enhance precipitation which if cold enough could result in snow... especially in the north...depending on how potent the whole of uk could see wintery precipitation..late winter/early spring troughs can be more meaningful for cold as sea temps are at their lowest..hope that helps...

Yep, that's why I'm not getting excited, December all over again. Still might get luckier this time perhaps.

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep, that's why I'm not getting excited, December all over again. Still might get luckier this time perhaps.

Given we're at the end of Winter and not the start, one assumes there is a lot more cold air to tap into?

[Vikos]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Given we're at the end of Winter and not the start, one assumes there is a lot more cold air to tap into?

I would say we are still middle of winter… 

[MJB]

GEFS Let's see what the 12z brings 

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given we're at the end of Winter and not the start, one assumes there is a lot more cold air to tap into?

That is true, but I'm still right down on the SE coast. NE miss here, N normally wishbones away to my east. Still you never know where the troughs will be, hopefully more action with this one, if indeed the low ends up to our ne.

[andymusic]

Signs of some EASTERN PROMISE out in FI land on the GFS 6z - is this the possible start of the strat influence - we shall see!

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I would say we are still middle of winter… 

We are not, this is a meteorological site and the meteorological Winter end on February 28th.

[andymusic]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

We are not, this is a meteorological site and the meteorological Winter end on February 28th.

agreed!

[Snowboy111]

Wind your necks in. 19th March. And in my eyes everything has shifter forward 1 month. March is the new Feb and has been for a while. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

We are not, this is a meteorological site and the meteorological Winter end on February 28th.

Although on average March, particularly the first half, is on long term averages not much different temperature-wise to the start of winter (early and mid December), so all in all, the first half of March often brings a similar amount of cold weather to early and mid December.  Whereas when you reach the second half of March average temperatures do on average begin to increase for spring, then on average it gradually gets warmer as time passes through April, May and into June.

[Nick2373]

06z nothing cold as of yet, looks like from around the 15th a slight loss of pressure some spikes in there suggesting showery weather at times. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Jacob said:

GEFS, please don't let us down again. 

No garden path this time.  It’s all about watching it unfold and the timing.  I’m a betting man, and I believe even if it’s a displacement, it will fall in the right location.  
 

BFTP

[phil nw.]

The overnight ecm clusters show an interesting trend as we go from day 10 to day 15

Day10                                                           Day15

   

Going from the current +ve NAO pattern we currently have  with the high nearby to the south towards a change to heights ridging north and troughing appearing to our east/northeast.

Some differences within the later clusterings but we can imagine a trend towards something more of a -ve NAO pattern evolving in the following days.

With the warmings above and the movement eastwards of the MJO the timing of this pattern change towards month end is looking more feasible. 

 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No garden path this time.  It’s all about watching it unfold and the timing.  I’m a betting man, and I believe even if it’s a displacement, it will fall in the right location.  
 

BFTP

Which sounds like a 'garden path' to me, Fred!

[Cambrian]

Just to add to the discussion of the potential Scandinavian trough beginning to be hinted later on in the runs of some of the models, the 0z ECM ensemble mean had this at day 12 and day 15…

 

associated with an even stronger looking lobe of PV in the Barents Sea / Svalbard / Northern Scandinavia area than the 0z GEM was showing. 

The 0z ECM control at day 15 is a cracker though! Look at that air digging south.

  

@Rob 79812010 - thank you, to add to our chat via PM, looking at the coincident location of those uppers and all that precipitation this is the kind of northerly setup that could deliver more widely!

The models are in a very different place today than they were even only a day ago. I’m really looking forward to the 12z’s.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Cotinuing signals of the higher pressure retrogressing to Greenland which fits the lagged phase 2 + phase 3 of MJO 

 

And as I was discussing there has indeed been more cyclone developments in the Indian Ocean

 

 

[Blessed Weather]

From this morning's GFS 0z run -  a great 3D sequence of the sPV coming under severe stress on the Zac Lawrence website. The perfect cylindrical shape at the start of the sequnce on the 14th Feb becoming a wobbling mess by the 20th Feb and not recovering through to the end of the run on the 24th. 

Source: https://www.stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Which sounds like a 'garden path' to me, Fred!

How is it a garden path Pete?, the SSW is now  very much expected….

BFTP

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

How is it a garden path Pete?, the SSW is now  very much expected….

BFTP

Indeed, it is Fred. But what follows is hardly a foregone conclusion... Let's contrast the SSW of 2018 with that of 2019: It's far from simple.

Anyway, Fred, you've been forecasting blizzards every month since Xmas -- 2002!

[mushymanrob]

43 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Cotinuing signals of the higher pressure retrogressing to Greenland which fits the lagged phase 2 + phase 3 of MJO 

 

And as I was discussing there has indeed been more cyclone developments in the Indian Ocean

 

 

Im must be missing something here... because the MJO didnt orbit in Phase 2, it was in the COD. In phase 3 it peaked on the 29th jan, suggesting that with the lag on 10 - 12 days  (according to Grampian Weather) means that those phase 3 composites with high over Greenland should be seen now, not in another 2 weeks time... What am i misunderstanding?

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Im must be missing something here... because the MJO didnt orbit in Phase 2, it was in the COD. In phase 3 it peaked on the 29th jan, suggesting that with the lag on 10 - 12 days  (according to Grampian Weather) means that those phase 3 composites with high over Greenland should be seen now, not in another 2 weeks time... What am i misunderstanding?

 

Clearly, you haven't yet 'smelled the coffee', Rob!

[Vikos]

 

full reversal