Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Vikos]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, good to see some of these charts back at the crucial moment.  Now the ssw is in ECM range, will give us a better idea of how it is unfolding.

GEFS SSW percent back up to 77% on the 0z.  GFS op shows a slightly stronger warming than the last two runs, I think.  

Institute of Meteorology - Working Group Atmospheric Dynamics - Stratosphere Diagnostics

USERS.MET.FU-BERLIN.DE

I find everything I need except a reversal at 10hpa
 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Vikos

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

The low height anomaly doesn't stick around to our west for too long on the ensemble means this afternoon:

The trend is your friend if you want to stay dry...

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Sounds like we are on a promise then - thunderbirds are go lol

On a promise for what, yes it looks like a SSW will happen, but what it will do down here weather wise is not set in stone. We'll see once it's happened whether it works for us or not this time.

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

On a promise for what, yes it looks like a SSW will happen, but what it will do down here weather wise is not set in stone. We'll see once it's happened whether it works for us or not this time.

It would be fitting for this winter that we get landed with a west based -NAO

[Summer tyre]

17 hours ago, jmp223 said:

Really good article on SSWs here, I found it to be a really informative read.

A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming, collapsing the Polar Vortex and potentially impacting the weather in late-month and early Spring » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

A new and even stronger Stratospheric Warming is coming for the Polar Vortex, potentially impacting the weather in the United States, Canada and Europe

 

Thank you very much for posting that pointer to a beautiful explanation of SSW - I learned a lot from it.

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

It would be fitting for this winter that we get landed with a west based -NAO

Who knows. 

[phil nw.]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

On a promise for what, yes it looks like a SSW will happen, but what it will do down here weather wise is not set in stone. We'll see once it's happened whether it works for us or not this time.

Indeed.What a strong ssw will do though is weaken the polar jet and make it more undulating.

High pressure getting into Arctic latitudes forcing deeper troughing sending cold air south.

We just need the good fortune to be on the cold side of the trough.

The quicker the troposphere response the better now as we head towards Spring.

[Nick2373]

Not without interest could see some upgrades on the 06z? 

[Met4Cast]

The GEFS mean has certainly backed away from a technical SSW albeit i’d still imagine a SSW is more likely than not at the moment. Not quite the done deal it had perhaps seemed, though. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Met4Cast

[andymusic]

43 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

On a promise for what, yes it looks like a SSW will happen, but what it will do down here weather wise is not set in stone. We'll see once it's happened whether it works for us or not this time.

oh to have a crystal ssw ball or a time machine to see what will happen - all speculative at the mo I know - but we're in the game with a chance to see who knows - maybe another 2018 feb/March - 10 foot blown drifts around these parts and red warnings from the met office - can't do much better than that!

[tight isobar]

So- ina square box .. we have borederline reversal of zonals at medium upper level, a still not deciphered sync- between a complete trop- acc split/ to a partial split and even a notable flux/ punching lower level near split @500 gs. However as I said b4- a displacement and even regeneration of the mother lobe polar vortex at its stomping ground Canadian/ Alaska driveways- could be of serious benificial load.!! As regeneration - with certainly consist of an, at least partial displacement to the Eurasia/ Siberian sector!, as all the layer dynamics of upper atmospheric warming- plays out And decides to which layer platforms evolve!... the crux is... the race for any mid latitude block formats to race to a notable geographical point- either way north east/ north west... or indeed a double whammy of trough spilling of both??!!.. the clock is ticking.. And there’s is still a gold pot for us at the end of the rainbow - .... the down draugting and awaiting impact, of to what degree are the obvious for possible outcomes!.. a rapid but temporary reversal of z- winds are my punt- b4 an upwelling sorts to realignment!.. I can’t see ANY “quick troposphere responses “ (IMO)- it’s how quick the baselines @ 500- can exelarate getting decent MLB formation in place- b4- or as upper layer workings start responding!!!... it’s about now... all above will start their mechanisms of a race for the line... and the outcomes could be vast!!!!!... Stick to ya 500 geo pots - and look for Pacific/ euro- Atlantic blocking formats.. And let’ the upper layers play out - for now- ...

Edited February 8, 2023 by tight isobar

[Nick2373]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

oh to have a crystal ssw ball or a time machine to see what will happen - all speculative at the mo I know - but we're in the game with a chance to see who knows - maybe another 2018 feb/March - 10 foot blown drifts around these parts and red warnings from the met office - can't do much better than that!

Not with charts like this we aren't keeps going we will be talking about how February broke current CET Records. 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Not with charts like this we aren't keeps going we will be talking about how February broke current CET Records. 

Tbh- the ensemble uk plots- especially @850 hpa- are in the que atm... waiting to see what bargains are still in the store... the flip or not.. could be shocking at short range over the nxt 5 days.. as input starts absorbing!!

[Ali1977]

Well there’s not much excitement in the next 10 days that’s for sure, possible Atlantic inroads later in week two which in February do seem to be much more potent in the 850s department with a colder Atlantic at the back end of winter , so any PM systems could well have a wintery flavour into week 3 of Feb. 

We still wait for any signs of SSW fallout in the NH,  I imagine by the weekend some crazy ones may start appearing at the back end of the GEFS/EPS. 
It could be a long month for coldies, it feels like it’s been a long winter since that early Dec cold!! 
 

March being colder than Feb certainly looks a possibility at this stage, long way to go though. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Ali1977

[minus10]

Almost....eh...

[Purga]

Warming up and slowing down.

Start of 06z                                                         End of 06z

 

NH profile is improving to match

[TwisterGirl81]

Looking lovely and mild at the end of the GFS 6Z, fingers crossed it's onto a warming trend for the start of spring.  Good news for those of us who don't have money to burn on energy  

Spring is in the air  

Edited February 8, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[Kiwi]

 

[bluearmy]

Awaiting the cross sectional on that gfs op 

the heights through the atmosphere from 500hpa to 10hpa seem to respond in tandem with  that n pacific ridge punching into the pole 

It does look more trop led on the timeline but there could be a reflective wave back down from higher up - the cross sections charts will show how fluid the whole strat is on the reverse flow 

I think we are too hung up on what happens at 60N at times like this. 

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:

Not with charts like this we aren't keeps going we will be talking about how February broke current CET Records. 

Didn't you have this same conversation at beginning of Jan, how'd that conversation end? 5.2C was hardly record breaking for Jan & prob best to use 2m temps when discussing CET.

Feb certainly looking to be settled, dry & not surprisingly, warmer than chilly W/NWs and as being touted dipping as we head towards March, though the control certainly on the extreme both above & below

[Catacol]

18 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Thanks, looks interesting, will have a read.  Just looking at the conclusions, my gut reaction is they look maybe slightly over-confident.  The reason I think that is that in recent years the QBO has been behaving somewhat erratically - which is a new phenomenon.  I’m not sure how this plays with frequency of SSWs (currently about 6 per decade) but the QBO is an important factor, so an impact is, I would have thought, possible.  

Worth saying that we know SSW events are often led by tropospheric patterns and we know that tropospheric patterns are forecast to be impacted by CC. eg northerly drift of the Hadley Cell with particular impacts on Europe. If trop patterns are shifting then SSW precursors are shifting in probability. I haven't read the research - but would want to know which variables were being looked at.

[tight isobar]

43 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Looking lovely and mild at the end of the GFS 6Z, fingers crossed it's onto a warming trend for the start of spring.  Good news for those of us who don't have money to burn on energy  

Spring is in the air  

I don’t discount your ‘Wanting ‘ .. it’s quite feasible that we could end up in a large arc block.. and have a drag on equatorial based winds!.. late February!.. Although both cold bias- and evolving progs... I think it’s unlikely!!. 

[Vikos]

Looks like a split

even better on wetterzentrale chart (can’t post right now)

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hey folks don't get to stressed over current output! If GFS is smelling the exotic cocktail then we could be looking at a reversel in the winds sometime next week perhaps. If that process continues for long enough then we are talking pretty significant strat disruption.

So if all goes to plan we could be looking at surface conditions changing around a week or so with a quick Trop Response,or perhaps a couple of weeks without it. The models over the coming days are gonna start to go crazy with many runs going all over the place. But with a little luck we could easily be looking at a very backloaded Winter event. Personally I'm excited to how this plays out. So for God sake do not be giving up on Winter right now....NOW IS NOT THE TIME ME LOVELIES!

It could go all wrong! It could also go all 2018! 

Time to have some fun me thinks.

@TwisterGirl81 I tell you what's in the air....wait for it...no not Spring...but an SSW which could give Spring a right kick in the a@@@

Edited February 8, 2023 by MATT TATTOO

[Nick2373]

50 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Didn't you have this same conversation at beginning of Jan, how'd that conversation end? 5.2C was hardly record breaking for Jan & prob best to use 2m temps when discussing CET.

Feb certainly looking to be settled, dry & not surprisingly, warmer than chilly W/NWs and as being touted dipping as we head towards March, though the control certainly on the extreme both above & below

So Jan fished 1.26c above average yes not recorded breaking but above average that, so in reality it should have been lower for the month but it weren't was it.             

Anyway moving on to the 06z the trend is back from the 15th onwards for something of a showery set up with winds being dragged up from the South West. Lets hope the SSW Can deliver sometime soon days getting warmer and longer spring around the corner.

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Nick2373