Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Ali1977]

I like this tweet

Surely some dramatic swings in output to come 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Ali1977

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is it my imagination or has Fred been calling cold since Xmas ???

 

Your imagination….I’ve called a mild Feb (gone for 7c).  Jan, got the mild start to Jan way wrong  (I have been updating on the winter outlook thread).  I touted ‘exceptional’ March a long time ago….let’s see what happens…..fancy a tenner ?

The fact that SSW is now very much expected surely mixes the outlook up somewhat …..step one imo in place 

BFTP

Edited February 8, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

21 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

How can you be so certain of that happening? Lol

It’s coming….look backs/similar solar behaviour etc.  March to be a humdinger….at least it’s fun to ‘anticipate’

 

BFTP

Edited February 8, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s coming….look backs/similar solar behaviour etc.  March to be a humdinger….at least it’s fun to ‘anticipate’

 

BFTP

Thinking March 2013 with your reference to solar behaviour?

[Daniel*]

ECMWF trailing behind GFS in terms of MJO forecast it seems. It’s now also going along amplified route too.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The day 5 was the sum of any excitement . After that it sunk quicker than my attempts to go on a diet ! 

The westerlies being flushed down from the strat should be weakening before day ten and the zonal winds should be falling quickly at the same time so it looks like the ECM didn’t get the memo !

I’m close to throwing the towel in on this winter . Another woeful effort .

We might see some cold in March but once again we’ve been downgraded from five nights at the Hilton on Hyde Park to a weekend in a crappy B and B ! 

Your jumping the gun a little Nick..The output is not gonna be showing any affects on a strat disturbance that's not even finalised yet. When that strat disturbance takes place the models will start throwing tantrums and you will start to see some crazy runs appearing..Absolutely no point in getting stressed out or throwing the towel in until the said events have been finalised. It's the backend of this month we need to be focusing on...I said earlier forget the next 10 to 14 days and tonight's output proves this....I think things will get very spicy before the month is out!

PATIENCE AND A COOL HEAD REQUIRED BEFORE THEN!.

NOW BREATHE DEEPLY NICK GOOD MAN

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Your jumping the gun a little Nick..The output is not gonna be showing any affects on a strat disturbance that's not even finalised yet. When that strat disturbance takes place the models will start throwing tantrums and you will start to see some crazy runs appearing..Absolutely no point in getting stressed out or throwing the towel in until the said events have been finalised. It's the backend of this month we need to be focusing on...I said earlier forget the next 10 to 14 days and tonight's output proves this....I think things will get very spicy before the month is out!

PATIENCE AND A COOL HEAD REQUIRED BEFORE THEN!.

NOW BREATHE DEEPLY NICK GOOD MAN

I was having a major tantrum! My patience is wearing thin but I will hold it together for a while longer .  You’d better hope the models improve or things could turn very ugly ! 

[damianslaw]

Very quiet in this thread in recent days, echoing how quiet the weather is overall. No changes in the forseeable, high pressure meandering around to our south as it has for long periods over the last 2 years, deflecting low pressure and fronts well to our north, and giving the south glancing blows. Tonight a good example, a cold front sweeping through the UK, yet by the time it reaches the midlands it will be no more than a band of thick cloud with light drizzle. Despite a strong PV, I'm surprised we are not seeing cyclogensesis at present, all that cold air to the NW should be mixing with warmer atlantic air and creating strong low pressure systems - alas the blocking is mighty strong and set to remain in situ through middle of the month it seems.

What happens later this month all conjecture at this stage, anyone expecting the models to suddenly show a change in the synoptics in the longer term output caused by any anticipated effects of expected Stratospheric warming, should really look away from the models for a good week at the earliest, as any possible effects will only start to show up once said event happens, and with time lag, it won't be until well into the third week of Feb we can speculate with any confidence likely outcomes. This is not a statement to say expect sudden changes, just that should they occur, the models won't hone in on them properly until at least 2 weeks time if not longer..

In the meantime - might be a time to take a step back from model watching if you are wanting any marked shift in current state of affairs, looking at every model run will only cause frustration if that's what you are looking for, sometimes the long waiting game needs to be played out... 

[Vikos]

The SSW probability in GEFS is: 94%
weatheriscool (.com)

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

The SSW probability in GEFS is: 94%
weatheriscool (.com)

Eps mean is reversed T200-T300 on the 12z. The longest period yet and certainly no indication that it wouldn’t follow the gfs op tend of a second reversal to follow the slight recovery to positive post day 14/15

[Bricriu]

9 minutes ago, Vikos said:

The SSW probability in GEFS is: 94%
weatheriscool (.com)

It's just a pity that it's not a split being shown. With the MJO being favourable for blocking we could have been on to something special.  By special I mean something akin to March 2013 or 2018.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Bricriu

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It's just a pity that it's not a split being shown. With the MJO being favourable for blocking we could have been on to something special.  By special I mean something akin to March 2013 or 2018.

It has been suggested perhaps something more akin to March 2008 could be a possibility which had some cold/snowy weather, but nothing on the scale of 2013 and 2018.

[Stravaiger]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

It has been suggested perhaps something more akin to March 2008 could be a possibility which had some cold/snowy weather, but nothing on the scale of 2013 and 2018.

I’m praying for March 2006.
 

I recommend treating yourself to a scroll through that month’s charts on the archives if you want to remember what low heights and cold 850s look like

[Eagle Eye]

I'd just like to publicly thank this forum and especially this thread over the last few months. I don't often talk about my mental state much on here but it's been really low up until the last few days where I seem to have got better with a lot of things clicking with me and I've gotten even closer with my best friend Georgie and got her to open up to me plus I've joined a severe weather forecasting group. Let me tell you without the confidence I've gained from feeling appreciated here I wouldn't have been able to do either of those things. Let alone the fact that at times I felt so down that if I hadn't had felt appreciated on here then I don't know if I would be here. I've finally accepted that perhaps only a few people 'appreciate me' as such and there's only one in real life that I feel cares about me and that's my best friend that I mentioned earlier. Instead of getting annoyed or sad like I did over the middle of Winter, I will cherish her and will spend as much time caring about her as she does me. We're going to become great friends . So I'd like to thank you all for being so nice to me when I was learning new stuff and got stuff wrong and for sticking with me when I was really need when I joined. Here's to a good trop response to the SSW .  Then hopefully (in my case) a stormy summer, like what the 80's and 90's apparently used to be like (only been around since 2007, the song umbrella came out the year I was born I think) with my GCSE's finishing late June, I can storm chase (around my summer job should I get one) and have a blast and get ready to hunker down to hopefully my first El Nino winter on here.

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Stravaiger said:

I’m praying for March 2006.
 

I recommend treating yourself to a scroll through that month’s charts on the archives if you want to remember what low heights and cold 850s look like

Shame it delivered very little IMBY, only remember seeing a brief flurry!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'd just like to publicly thank this forum and especially this thread over the last few months. I don't often talk about my mental state much on here but it's been really low up until the last few days where I seem to have got better with a lot of things clicking with me and I've gotten even closer with my best friend Georgie and got her to open up to me plus I've joined a severe weather forecasting group. Let me tell you without the confidence I've gained from feeling appreciated here I wouldn't have been able to do either of those things. Let alone the fact that at times I felt so down that if I hadn't had felt appreciated on here then I don't know if I would be here. I've finally accepted that perhaps only a few people 'appreciate me' as such and there's only one in real life that I feel cares about me and that's my best friend that I mentioned earlier. Instead of getting annoyed or sad like I did over the middle of Winter, I will cherish her and will spend as much time caring about her as she does me. We're going to become great friends . So I'd like to thank you all for being so nice to me when I was learning new stuff and got stuff wrong and for sticking with me when I was really need when I joined. Here's to a good trop response to the SSW .  Then hopefully (in my case) a stormy summer, like what the 80's and 90's apparently used to be like (only been around since 2007, the song umbrella came out the year I was born I think) with my GCSE's finishing late June, I can storm chase (around my summer job should I get one) and have a blast and get ready to hunker down to hopefully my first El Nino winter on here.

Like I said mate...your a Legend already in my eyes. Sometimes it's nice to have 1 best friend in life...all the others tend to come and go...I for instance have none...and tbh I know longer care. 

But you know I'm feeling the need to light the fires and kick the tyres!!! Somethings a foot for later this month...hopefully many feet of it.

Tomorrow is a big day...I have someone to look after Dad for me....that can mean only one thing...yehhhhh...a 5 hour sitting for a lower leg tattoo....bring on the pain...

Oh yessss...

Let's burn that bloody strat down...

[North-Easterly Blast]

25 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It's just a pity that it's not a split being shown. With the MJO being favourable for blocking we could have been on to something special.  By special I mean something akin to March 2013 or 2018.

The cold spell in January 2013 was quite potent and lasted for two weeks, and that followed an SSW I believe.  The late Feb / early March 2018 cold spell was an intense and potent although not particularly long lived cold spell as it was for little more than a week, although it did return for a time in mid March 2018.

Further back, late February 2005 saw a great cold synoptical setup develop with a reasonably long lived easterly spell (a fair bit more long lived than the late Feb / early March 2018 easterly) and the cold synoptics lasted into early March, although the weather that the UK experienced on the ground never really quite lived up to its full potential for the synoptics that developed.  The synoptics from around Feb 20th to early March 2005 look great on paper to get the cold air in to the UK, but at that time Central Europe was not particularly cold, and so the cold air that reached the UK was moderated somewhat, and although snow fell at times in many parts of the country including to lower levels, any lasting snow cover was mostly restricted to areas with elevation.  If central and eastern Europe had have been properly cold at that time, the late February 2005 easterly spell really could have been as potent for cold as the one in late Feb 2018 but more long lived as well.  

The late February 2005 easterly spell developed after what had been a quite a mild winter up to that point with not much going on from a cold perspective, and showed that it was still possible to get a pattern change late in the winter to something favourable, although I am not sure if there was an SSW shortly before it developed.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The late February 2005 easterly spell developed after what had been a quite a mild winter up to that point with not much going on from a cold perspective, and showed that it was still possible to get a pattern change late in the winter to something favourable, although I am not sure if there was an SSW shortly before it developed.

Yes, I would be interested to know if there was an SSW during winter 04/05, perhaps around late January, leading to a big pattern change later in February?  Can anyone shed any light?

[Eagle Eye]

10 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Like I said mate...your a Legend already in my eyes. Sometimes it's nice to have 1 best friend in life...all the others tend to come and go...I for instance have none...and tbh I know longer care. 

I don't know how you do it but it seems to be working, optimism (well I imagine you can't be all the time) can be great and I guess that's the view I should start having on life. I say bring on the SSW and bring on the effects on the Troposphere. I have to say though it is actually looking quite good and not to mention the MJO, lining up quite nicely.

[Singularity]

The imminent now almost certain SSW has really caught my attention now because of two things: 

- The vortex looks to be displaced to Scandinavia which is at the eastern end of historical precedent. This doesn’t look to be the usual orientation of displacement which places the vortex above the North Atlantic & encourages strong troughs there. Instead, one more supportive of a -NAO pattern as the anticyclone locates above Greenland or close to there.

Provided, that is, the zonal wind reversal propagates down, which brings me to the second thing:

- Active MJO projected to cross Pacific in 2-3 weeks time. This aligns with the lagged displacement type SSW impact window of 2-4 weeks after the event. It means the MJO will be forcing the troposphere toward a -AO while the reversal is looking to ‘connect’ with it from above. So, the troposphere will be receptive to it rather than resistant. I believe this is a key factor behind some displacement type SSWs having major weather pattern impacts and others hardly any.

 

So overall, I think this SSW, provided it occurs, has a higher chance of forcing a -AO & -NAO episode sometime late Feb through mid-March than past precedent for displacement type events as a whole suggests.

No guarantees of course but plenty to keep an eye on in the modelling during the next 2+ weeks. 

[geordiekev]

54 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'd just like to publicly thank this forum and especially this thread over the last few months. I don't often talk about my mental state much on here but it's been really low up until the last few days where I seem to have got better with a lot of things clicking with me and I've gotten even closer with my best friend Georgie and got her to open up to me plus I've joined a severe weather forecasting group. Let me tell you without the confidence I've gained from feeling appreciated here I wouldn't have been able to do either of those things. Let alone the fact that at times I felt so down that if I hadn't had felt appreciated on here then I don't know if I would be here. I've finally accepted that perhaps only a few people 'appreciate me' as such and there's only one in real life that I feel cares about me and that's my best friend that I mentioned earlier. Instead of getting annoyed or sad like I did over the middle of Winter, I will cherish her and will spend as much time caring about her as she does me. We're going to become great friends . So I'd like to thank you all for being so nice to me when I was learning new stuff and got stuff wrong and for sticking with me when I was really need when I joined. Here's to a good trop response to the SSW .  Then hopefully (in my case) a stormy summer, like what the 80's and 90's apparently used to be like (only been around since 2007, the song umbrella came out the year I was born I think) with my GCSE's finishing late June, I can storm chase (around my summer job should I get one) and have a blast and get ready to hunker down to hopefully my first El Nino winter on here.

Is always good to see new members each new Winter season, for those like myself, who hibernate in the Summers & always look forward to the Autumnal awakening.

But have to give you massive credit young man, for doing the hard work that some of us struggle with & explaining the more challenging background intricacies in a digestible fashion.

I do hope that for yourself & all of us that the hopeful SSW sheds a bit more light on the rarity that is our weather. Keep up the good work & ensure you get out in the stuff too, no matter the weather, nature is a good friend especially in Winter.

Yesterday's 35 dayer is literally all over the place in terms of temps but hopefully another learning phase incoming

[tight isobar]

21 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The imminent now almost certain SSW has really caught my attention now because of two things: 

- The vortex looks to be displaced to Scandinavia which is at the eastern end of historical precedent. This doesn’t look to be the usual orientation of displacement which places the vortex above the North Atlantic & encourages strong troughs there. Instead, one more supportive of a -NAO pattern as the anticyclone locates above Greenland or close to there.

Provided, that is, the zonal wind reversal propagates down, which brings me to the second thing:

- Active MJO projected to cross Pacific in 2-3 weeks time. This aligns with the lagged displacement type SSW impact window of 2-4 weeks after the event. It means the MJO will be forcing the troposphere toward a -AO while the reversal is looking to ‘connect’ with it from above. So, the troposphere will be receptive to it rather than resistant. I believe this is a key factor behind some displacement type SSWs having major weather pattern impacts and others hardly any.

 

So overall, I think this SSW, provided it occurs, has a higher chance of forcing a -AO & -NAO episode sometime late Feb through mid-March than past precedent for displacement type events as a whole suggests.

No guarantees of course but plenty to keep an eye on in the modelling during the next 2+ weeks. 

Great post . The nao/ AO precursors, are bound by - relevances- of Pacific ridge placement. I’ll reinvigorate, the notions of circulation blocking forms. This is cat. N mouse bounding!.. with IO(Indian ocean phasing) ... And rotate Pacific punching,It’s circumstances of race!. A fare bound block of even MLB- will/ could be a trigger point for polar dripping! .. and NOW this could be the Madden j- oscillating stage!.. as orbital syncs.. start settling with AM- and upper layers finishing!!! - take the countoures at face value.. and stale.. and fresh data!

Edited February 9, 2023 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Great post . The nao/ AO precursors, are bound by - relevances- of Pacific ridge placement. I’ll reinvigorate, the notions of circulation blocking forms. This is cat. N mouse bounding!.. with IO(Indian ocean phasing) ... And rotate Pacific punching,It’s circumstances of race!. A fare bound block of even MLB- will/ could be a trigger point for polar dripping! .. and NOW this could be the Madden j- oscillating stage!.. as orbital syncs.. start settling with AM- and upper layers finishing!!! - take the countoures at face value.. and stale.. and fresh data!

A cross polar split ..is coming!!!

[Cold Winter Night]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, I would be interested to know if there was an SSW during winter 04/05, perhaps around late January, leading to a big pattern change later in February?  Can anyone shed any light?

No, there wasn't. 2004/2005 was even the only winter from 1999-2010 without an official SSW.

But nevertheless, that pattern brought a memorable snow event to Holland early March.

[SLEETY]

So  everyone looking for cold and snow  stop doing this until about last week of Feb, watching the model outlook  that is!! As it is  after that date that the  effects of the SSW will starting showing up in the models,thsts from that video  from the Met and all the models they use. 

Didn't rule out another beast incoming could get interesting end of feb into March.