Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Derecho]

3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: “There is now over 80-per cent chance of a major SSW occurring.
 

Here we go.  The date record cold March I touted last year looks to be nicely in the Mix.  They anticipate it to occur in about 7 days time

 

BFTP

Given March is typically a month with less in the way of westerlies, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a lot more in the way of northern blocking thanks to this SSW.

Be wary though, an SSW event is no guarantee of cold, it simply increases the chances of it.

If we get an SSW but the PV ends up moving into NE Canada then that would be an example of how it can backfire.

January 2019 also had a big SSW event but the weather for the following February was exceptionally mild.

Will be interesting to see whether we get more mild weather or a March 2013/2018 type month.

[Catacol]

OK - watching the impacts of next week's SSW roll forward is going to be interesting. GFS from yesterday much less aggressive with the warming which, the day before, was flagging a very rare wave 1 induced split. Today's image much more like what we might expect realistically I think, though snow hunters should certainly keep fingers crossed that the extreme split option reappears

:

With a much weakened vortex over the European side I continue to see a window for a cold high lat block to appear towards the end of February, a probability enhanced by MJO phases. So - we need to look for anomaly charts to move from the +NAO signature to one that sees ridging begin to push north.

EPS for 22nd Feb from last night's run

compared to the same date from the run the night before

I suspect 22nd Feb is a bit soon in any case to see a significant response to the SSW, but around about month's end I could see interest really pick up. It is all about timing and today is Feb 8...so bear in mind the fluidity of this timing context at such long range. But I am sticking my neck out and stating the direction of travel is set.

 

[Eagle Eye]

The +VE EAMT right now is likely to extend the Pacific jet and that may flatten out the North Atlantic pattern especially given the -VE EPO exiting wave recently. Unironically, an extended Pacific jet would help retract the Atlantic jet but the timing just seems slightly off from this and we look fairly likely to see -VE Greenland heights to fire up the jet. So unless the MJO Phase 6-7 can really get strong around the same time, I suspect we'll mostly be looking towards how this potential SSW acts until March.

GEFS

EPO-Fast

Don't be fooled by some of the anomalies such as the +VE heights over the Arctic mid-term as they aren't strong enough to just be a small deviation from normal.

[Cambrian]

Yeah, same thing.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Given March is typically a month with less in the way of westerlies, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a lot more in the way of northern blocking thanks to this SSW.

Be wary though, an SSW event is no guarantee of cold, it simply increases the chances of it.

If we get an SSW but the PV ends up moving into NE Canada then that would be an example of how it can backfire.

January 2019 also had a big SSW event but the weather for the following February was exceptionally mild.

Will be interesting to see whether we get more mild weather or a March 2013/2018 type month.

Agreed QuickS…..Definitely something to look ahead to.  I strongly believe that it will bring ‘one very interesting March’.   And I’m really happy that a SSW is now very likely, so that’s step one achieved.
 

 

BFTP

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hey folks i think it's gonna be a case of just watching how things develop around mid month. Things are probably gonna be rather subdued up until the final 3rd.

The action could begin with some luck a little further on,I've noticed the met now hint at something much colder..Low probability at the moment...but hey there's no way at this stage there gonna say high probability! We dont yet know how the dice will fall..But they're obviously basing that prognosis on the upcoming strat event.

Wow wouldn't it be something if a complete split would occur...its also so close to the 2018 event which makes this kind of strange! 

I'm all in for a proper blast of Winter and it would surely be worth the wait if it came off successfully.

Edited February 8, 2023 by MATT TATTOO

[Methuselah]

And, as the tension builds -- will it, or won't it? Here's a very impressive presentation from the Met Office:

 

[Cambrian]

Just as well - I had begun to give up! But all it takes at day 11 on the 12z GFS operational run is a bit more amplification further west in the Atlantic, and a trough running north-south down into the North Sea, for a cheeky little northwesterly, some lower uppers, and at long last, some snow charts! 

   

Quite unlikely in the event, all quite marginal even if the broad synoptic was to prove right, but very welcome as something different to look at. And who knows, it could be just the start of something much bigger!

 

Not a bad run actually, the colder air sticks around out to day 14 and 16 with a few more marginal setups for some wintry weather along the way. 

[blizzard81]

Gfs control maybe spotting a QTR during last week of Feb. 

[nick sussex]

Subtle changes to the placement and orientation of the high in the ECM at Day 5 compared to its earlier 00 hrs run.

A more se flow and a bit more amplified upstream .

Edited February 8, 2023 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs control maybe spotting a QTR during last week of Feb. 

It’s a very cold run, just shows how much more potent PM or Northerlies are later into winter with colder seas. 

[blizzard81]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Subtle changes to the placement and orientation of the high in the ECM at Day 5 compared to its earlier 00 hrs run.

A more se flow and a bit more amplified upstream .

The purple blob to our north west goes into over drive later though. It won't be denied - For now. 

[daz_4]

Scorching ECM run for Europe. 

[topo]

Dear Lord

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Scorching ECM run for Europe. 

That's at 850, so suggests high pressure. Looks similar to what we have now to me.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Scorching ECM run for Europe. 

Tropospheric warming

Oh dear!

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The purple blob to our north west goes into over drive later though. It won't be denied - For now. 

The day 5 was the sum of any excitement . After that it sunk quicker than my attempts to go on a diet ! 

The westerlies being flushed down from the strat should be weakening before day ten and the zonal winds should be falling quickly at the same time so it looks like the ECM didn’t get the memo !

I’m close to throwing the towel in on this winter . Another woeful effort .

We might see some cold in March but once again we’ve been downgraded from five nights at the Hilton on Hyde Park to a weekend in a crappy B and B ! 

Edited February 8, 2023 by nick sussex

[minus10]

11 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Scorching ECM run for Europe. 

Yes incredible really the strength and tenacity of high pressure these times..

...got to hope that once the vortex weakens so do the hps...or maybe they will just change location ....slightly ..

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,patient’s is the word waiting for the SSW to hopefully produce something very exciting to end the winter of 2023,possibly the charts could start to show pressure rises to the north around the last week of February fingers crossed.With a major SSW the chance is most definitely a possibility for something special.

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The day 5 was the sum of any excitement . After that it sunk quicker than my attempts to go on a diet ! 

The westerlies being flushed down from the strat should be weakening before day ten and the zonal winds should be falling quickly at the same time so it looks like the ECM didn’t get the memo !

I’m close to throwing the towel in on this winter . Another woeful effort .

We might see some cold in March but once again we’ve been downgraded from five nights at the Hilton on Hyde Park to a weekend in a crappy B and B ! 

Indeed. Either this winter is a bust or the ecm is just slow to the house, ahem I mean, stratospheric warming party. 

1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,patient’s is the word waiting for the SSW to hopefully produce something very exciting to end the winter of 2023,possibly the charts could start to show pressure rises to the north around the last week of February fingers crossed.With a major SSW the chance is most definitely a possibility for something special.

I think we'll all be 'patients' in straight jackets if we don't get a proper winter fix over the next few years. 

[tight isobar]

[Metwatch]

 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And, as the tension builds -- will it, or won't it? Here's a very impressive presentation from the Met Office:

 

 

No tension, serious cold in March beckons….and it’s looking like a humdinger 

BFTP

Edited February 8, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

No tension, serious cold in March beckons….and it’s looking like a humdinger 

BFTP

How can you be so certain of that happening? Lol

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

How can you be so certain of that happening? Lol

Is it my imagination or has Fred been calling cold since Xmas ???