Model Output Discussion - Into February

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, Tills said:

Mild all the way out to the end of winter (28 Feb) at the moment in the model outputs with a persistent high pressure either over southern Britain or the near Continent.

Moist and mild over the north of Britain is bad news for the ski industry in Scotland where there is currently no skiable snow. I really feel for them. A few weeks back when I went out to the Alps it was a reverse situation. Now the snow is gone up north, whilst the Alps has powder blue skiing.

 

the ski industry hasn't had a complete atrocious year - they had loads of snow up in Scotland when certain resorts in the Alps earlier in the season had nothing - models will factor in the ssw soon i'm sure and outputs will reflect this

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Let’s hope the GFS op is extremely wrong!

[mushymanrob]

13 minutes ago, Tills said:

I am sceptical I'm afraid.

Cold events seem vanishingly rare in the UK and there is nothing in the model outputs at the moment to suggest this apparent stratospheric warming is going to have any real impact in the UK. 

 

But it too early, this SSW will be a major event and it might take as long as 4 weeks before it impacts on us. It may not be obvious for a while yet, but could develop within days.

Its unlikely that itll be picked up accurately in FI , but something is likely to develop t240-t360 as opposed to t360+ . The events of 2013 and 2018 prove that we can have the most Wintry weather in March when we have a SSW.

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, Tills said:

This post removed.

 

They've got snow making machines so they'll soldier on as best they can with the lower learner slops in operation if that's what it takes and the snow that's already fallen which is a fair bit should hold for the mo too - as I keep harping on though coming back to the models all those despondent at seeing nothing in the ops/ensembles output for the moment right now need to be patient - models have still yet to get to the crucial time output end of feb/march which is when this ssw should deliver - so it's a waiting game I'm afraid

[Vikos]

16 minutes ago, Tills said:

I am sceptical I'm afraid.

Cold events seem vanishingly rare in the UK and there is nothing in the model outputs at the moment to suggest this apparent stratospheric warming is going to have any real impact in the UK. 

In addition whilst March can be very cold in Britain it isn't winter and the thermal gradient rises qickly. It's pushing water uphill.

Not everyone on here presumably wants cold weather in Spring?

Some of us gardeners would like plenty of rain and mild weather thanks very much.

 

@nick sussex did show that couple of days ago very good how the OP's flipped after taking the ssw into calculations in 2018

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

It's possible it's 4 weeks but it can also be quicker at 2 weeks - let's show some positivity and hope all models start showing a little coldie action in the next 7 days or so out in FI land

If the March I have in mind (for months now) comes off, then positivity for coldies is there

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

But it too early, this SSW will be a major event and it might take as long as 4 weeks before it impacts on us. It may not be obvious for a while yet, but could develop within days.

Its unlikely that itll be picked up accurately in FI , but something is likely to develop t240-t360 as opposed to t360+ . The events of 2013 and 2018 prove that we can have the most Wintry weather in March when we have a SSW.

I agree with mush..i mean mushy, there's a lag effect don't you know...if not.. Roll on Spring..innit:)..me and mushy go back many years...he's a Great poster

Edited February 12, 2023 by Frosty.

[Nick2373]

so the 06z suggests if correct above average temperature effects of the SSW? The way we didn’t want it to go. 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

so the 06z suggests if correct above average temperature effects of the SSW? The way we didn’t want it to go. 

No, the SSW won’t be effecting the next 2 weeks!! 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Aside from the last few posts, have noticed the moderators have had to use their huge vacuums to hoover up some unsuitable posts in here within the last few hours. Therefore, let’s play a game. To stand a chance of winning, you need to make sure your post…

1. is about the models.

2. is a bit more than just a chart, or an odd word or two. I know a few like to do this for effect (though could be confusing for new members).

3. isn’t rude and insulting, while accepting we all have our own opinions and preferences. Be respectful about it, however.

4. doesn’t harass other members.

Your prizes will be: a post that remains in the thread (is that exciting! ) and… the white stuff! Trust me, this is one game you don’t wanna lose.

Edited February 12, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine

[andymusic]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No, the SSW won’t be effecting the next 2 weeks!! 

absoflippinlutely! - keep watching them models folks, at some point in the next seven days or so - the output should start to turn in our favour for coldies

Edited February 12, 2023 by andymusic

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Does anyone remember when the charts first start showing below -10c temperatures before the BFTE’18 ?

[Ali1977]

UKMO at 168 looks like it’s sending the heights north when toggling between 144 and 168, the GFS stays pretty flat so maybe that what would happen if the model went further. 
It’s similar to the GFS but the GFS is sending the heights more ENE 

 

By day 12 the GFS may be trying to build a high to the north East 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Ali1977

[EML Network]

Baring in mind that we still have 4 days until the SSW begins I'm guessing thats how long we are going to have to wait until we start to get a picture of how the dust settles ?

From what I read on the latest post about SSW's on the netweather's latest home page post, only 6 out of 10 SSW's lead to a cold outbreak and it can take MONTHS for us to feel such effects.

on a side note...Summer arrives early in Spain early next week !!! tempted to book a cheap last minute away break

[minus10]

By day 14 the solid trop vortex still being shown to be very much in control...

...with the higher heights stretched accross the eastern reaches of the artic..

....will be looking for some change to the strong trop vortex signal being shown by next weekend i would have thought....however presently as you are....   

 

[offerman]

Nothing cold in the forecast charts if gfs is anything to go by even if the headline alludes to colder weather potential.

 

 

 

 

[January Snowstorm]

My thoughts,

- History tells me that SSW's once occurring feed down quite quickly. So if its going to be a bullseye expect changes in the models by next Friday latest! IF

- Early March can deliver but the difference between 1st March and mid month is huge! So sooner is not only better its vital!

- I've seen a few comments that once the PV is taken down that could be it for rest of season. In my opinion this is a little irrelevant because if its snow your after the first initial surge will likely be the coldest. Anything after this will just be cold unpleasant stuff.

- Look to the ECM for the first signs! Don't forget the gfs is broken at the moment and will likely be the last to see the daylight!!

[Stuie]

Going to see some rain on Thursday, blimey. After that you can see where HP builds (7 days)

[Blessed Weather]

15 minutes ago, offerman said:

Nothing cold in the forecast charts if gfs is anything to go by even if the headline alludes to colder weather potential.
 

At this stage it's too early for any impact to be showing at the 500hPa level of the troposphere as even the furthest reach of the latest GFS is only out to the 28th Feb. The SSW at 10hPa is forecast to occur on the 15th February and expectations are that it will likely take several weeks to filter down and impact the troposphere. In fairness to Nick, his article does make this clear. But hopefully we will start to see some interesting model output by the end of this coming week.

A look at the Sudden Stratospheric Warming next week and what implications this may have on our weather a few weeks later. There's not guarantee that it will bring the Beast from the East like 2018 as suggested by the media, but it may increase the risk of a spell of cold and wintry weather into early March.

........So, there is no Beast from the East with snow and ice indicated in the model output out to 16 days, for now at least, so probably not for the rest of this month. But we will be monitoring the downwelling of the reversal to see if it reaches the troposphere, but based on current GFS forecast analysis of the atmospheric winds, I wouldn't expect any impacts of next week’s SSW event until early March if the reversal reaches the troposphere.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

At this stage it's too early for any impact to be showing at the 500hPa level of the troposphere as even the furthest reach of the latest GFS is only out to the 28th Feb. The SSW at 10hPa is forecast to occur on the 15th February and expectations are that it will likely take several weeks to filter down and impact the troposphere. In fairness to Nick, his article does make this clear. But hopefully we will start to see some interesting model output by the end of this coming week.

A look at the Sudden Stratospheric Warming next week and what implications this may have on our weather a few weeks later. There's not guarantee that it will bring the Beast from the East like 2018 as suggested by the media, but it may increase the risk of a spell of cold and wintry weather into early March.

........So, there is no Beast from the East with snow and ice indicated in the model output out to 16 days, for now at least, so probably not for the rest of this month. But we will be monitoring the downwelling of the reversal to see if it reaches the troposphere, but based on current GFS forecast analysis of the atmospheric winds, I wouldn't expect any impacts of next week’s SSW event until early March if the reversal reaches the troposphere.

Good points but I'm surprised we haven't seen more GFS runs and ensemble suites playing around with the idea of cold for NW Europe as a result of the SSW. And weren't some folk on here saying that from 24th/25th we could start to see things translating to the surface in some model runs? Might be wrong on that

There are some colder runs in tonight's GFS 850s suite but overall, I thought things might start to look colder towards the end of these runs by now as the models play around with what the SSW might do

Maybe by midweek we'll start seeing some cold or very cold op runs and ensembles

I also take the point others have made that the GFS has been poor since the so-called upgrade but I still would have been expecting some eye-candy for those who want a cold end to winter and start of March

[bluearmy]

Hmmm

gem and ec ops both showing a marked n pacific ridge building at day 10

its on the ens means too

the reversal high up will be in the starting data on Tuesday 12z 

my memory of late jan was that the runs a couple days ahead of reversal began to show changes re n pacific ridging so we may begin to see some different evolutions days 9/10 onwards 

[Paul]

Too many off topic posts in here today. If you're not posting about the model output, please don't hit the submit button.

The chat thread is here

 

[MP-R]

I know it's the CFS but it gives an idea of what COULD happen, and what often does when a SSW occurs at this stage... an initial cold shot, then a persistent southerly jet and a wet March!

 >  >  >  >  > 

If nothing else, at least we wouldn't be crying water shortages by early summer because of a dry spring!

Edited February 12, 2023 by MP-R
Formatting.

[Stuie]

Just trying to see modifications moving forward, albeit 7 days, the ECM loses some energy diving into Europe from it`s 0Z run.

 

Edit: and here is day 10 FI.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Stuie W

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean long term, there’s still no sign of anything wintery.. yet!..but a few perturbations do show hints of hope for coldies!…I honestly believe the very disappointing current and near future output will eventually change into something more exciting in the not too distant future, but more patience is required in the meantime.. if it doesn’t, role on spring!