Model Output Discussion - Into February

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

GFS coming in for some stick this morning because of 2 or 3 op runs. But its ensembles were never convincing regards cold

UKMO 168 is grim if it's cold you want. Except if you're Greek or from the Balkans

Cold spring is a possibility. But I really, really hope not

At least it won’t be mild.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

At least it won’t be mild.

 

 

No. But it won't be especially cold either. Frosts might be a thing if it's a 'clean' pattern

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

No. But it won't be especially cold either. Frosts might be a thing if it's a 'clean' pattern

Depends on where the high ends up. As long as there’s no milder air over the top of it.

[Daniel*]

No sign of rain it has been dry since mid Jan locally here so a month (4 weeks) at least with a big deficit. Winter rainfall is important. Of course there was flooding earlier in winter in places, but things can quickly turn. Drought might return in summer if this continues. Groundwater/reservoirs not sufficiently recharged. 

 

[SLEETY]

One or more models are going to watch their  credibility going down the toilet by the end of this evening. 

That's the one thing you can be certain of 

Edited February 1, 2023 by SLEETY

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, Tidal Wave said:

I wonder when this GFS "upgrade" will be sorted, woeful performance yet again.

 

 

Not sure you can say 'woeful performance' when we are still talking about the future? 

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No sign of rain it has been dry since mid Jan locally here so a month (4 weeks) at least with a big deficit. Winter rainfall is important. Of course there was flooding earlier in winter in places, but things can quickly turn. Drought might return in summer if this continues. Groundwater/reservoirs not sufficiently recharged. 

 

There is no need to keep on about drought. The infrastructure in this country is appalling as regards catchment of water etc. About 97% of rain goes out to sea. It's about time we had some new reservoirs built or use more desalination units. We have more than enough rain in this country. Anyway, gfs cold ,EC  other

[mb018538]

No big freeze on the ECM 00z and it's ensembles this morning...some chillier options, but nothing out of the ordinary. Pressure remaining high throughout.

[Timbo]

why are so many people confident that the GFS is wrong, this model was slated when it was going for +40 in the summer, it got that very correct, it was also slated on the breakdown of the early Dec cold spell,it also saw this happening before the other models.

How many times have we had all models in agreement on a potent cold spell to have it removed from our grasp.

I still think that the GFS has this modelled correctly and this time next week it will be the ukmo & ecmf that everyone is calling cannon fodder.  

 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Timbo said:

why are so many people confident that the GFS is wrong, this model was slated when it was going for +40 in the summer, it got that very correct, it was also slated on the breakdown of the early Dec cold spell,it also saw this happening before the other models.

How many times have we had all models in agreement on a potent cold spell to have it removed from our grasp.

I still think that the GFS has this modelled correctly and this time next week it will be the ukmo & ecmf that everyone is calling cannon fodder.  

 

I’m not saying it’s wrong yet, so this mornings 06z is quite a big one. If it’s the same as the 00z I’d say it’ll likely fall in line with the UKMO/ECM on its 12z - we need it to go back towards the BFTE type set up if we have a chance of a flip with the UKMO And ECM later today.

Hope that makes sense, basically we need an upgrade on its earlier run for sure - the 00z wasn’t that great TBF. 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Timbo said:

why are so many people confident that the GFS is wrong, this model was slated when it was going for +40 in the summer, it got that very correct, it was also slated on the breakdown of the early Dec cold spell,it also saw this happening before the other models.

How many times have we had all models in agreement on a potent cold spell to have it removed from our grasp.

I still think that the GFS has this modelled correctly and this time next week it will be the ukmo & ecmf that everyone is calling cannon fodder.  

 

It might be right, but weather forecasting is all about probability. When you have the GFS predicting this on its own, and it currently the 4th best performing model (behind ECM, UKMO and GEM), then on probability you have to say it's more unlikely than likely. 

This excerpt from the latest Met forecast shows they haven't totally discounted the idea either:

'Later, the most likely scenario is for wetter, windier and milder weather to move in from the west, however there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers'

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It might be right, but weather forecasting is all about probability. When you have the GFS predicting this on its own, and it currently the 4th best performing model (behind ECM, UKMO and GEM), then on probability you have to say it's more unlikely than likely. 

This excerpt from the latest Met forecast shows they haven't totally discounted the idea either:

'Later, the most likely scenario is for wetter, windier and milder weather to move in from the west, however there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers'

Noting this update was off yesterdays model runs, so unless there’s a quick flip I think that sentence disappear on todays update. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Noting this update was off yesterdays model runs, so unless there’s a quick flip I think that sentence disappear on todays update. 

I don’t think it’ll disappear as GFS is still showing the colder evolution which isn’t that far off.

Cant see the cold over Scandinavia just disappearing as the ECM tries to do.

[johnholmes]

The NOAA 500 mb anomaly chart frfom last evening continues with the idea of a ridge from Cherbourg to NE Norway and has the +ve anomaly of 210DM in the centre of the 500 mb ridge over Norway. Not that different on its 8-14 outlook. This is the 3 rd output from NOAA with a similar idea. Not often the 500 mb is much different in the 6-10 day scale on that basis.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Timbo]

Do we think the GFS will strengthen the Easterly or drop the idea on the 06z

i still have a gut feeling that we are about to be hit with a major Beast from the East, on par with 2018 . 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Do we think the GFS will strengthen the Easterly or drop the idea on the 06z

i still have a gut feeling that we are about to be hit with a major Beast from the East, on par with 2018 . 

It's the GFS which is normally a day or more behind the top two, however, given how flat the UKMO and ECM are at t+144, not even the GFS can get that wrong. No Beast from the East for the next two weeks at least.

[mushymanrob]

I know most of you here are chasing a winter wonderland, but from where im sitting, what we are likely to get is a "normal" February cold spell, very dry, often grey skies but night frosts where they clear, below average temps.

[TEITS]

Sadly this is a classic example of operationals leading the way over the ensembles. I feared the worst last night as whilst the 12Z ECM was an outlier it had support from the other models i.e UKMO/GEM. Hey presto come this morning whilst the ECM was still an outlier at times, you can see a massive shift in the 850hpa mean temp. The ECM mean had dropped to -5C but now stands at 0C. If the operationals continue with the same trend then I reckon tonights ECM 850 mean will rise to 3C.

For newcomers a few lessons to be learn't here. When an E,ly is predicted the UKMO is often the model to follow. You should also follow only the operationals and dismiss the ensembles.

I find following the models in winter can be less stressful and more accurate when looking at the basic data we have available i.e operationals. I have little interest in looking at the Stratosphere charts, anomalies, teleconnections etc. A recent example is when Mushy was still suggesting a stormy spell ahead when it was clear at the time the models had backed away from this.

[Battleground Snow]

GFS continues on its merry way on the 06z, I've highlighted the difference to why the high can't get far enough north on the ecm

Edited February 1, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Daniel*]

No backtrack from GFS it might be wrong but you can’t fault the consistency. 

[seabreeze86]

Just now, Daniel* said:

No backtrack from GFS it might be wrong but you can’t fault the consistency. 

Yeah none whatsoever in fact it actually looks better than the 0z 

Keeps interest going if nothing else 

[Ali1977]

Maybe a subtle upgrade at T126 compared to its 00z with the stronger push of heights and slightly better aligned cold. It keeps the interest going to the 12zs, especially if the ENS are good. 

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS continues on its merry way, I've highlighted the difference to why the high can't get far enough north on the ecm

You can see the ECM spreads highlight the key areas . 

In yellow how far east the upstream troughing gets . In red the shortwave energy heading south and one parcel which is supporting the high .

[Ali1977]

By T138 the freeze is on the doorstep 

By T138 the freeze is on the doorstep 

[That ECM]

Up to T120 it’s not that difficult a forecast. Beyond that the differences are huge.