Model Output Discussion - Into February

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll take the Op please.

[Chesil View]

Gfs and ecm poles apart in the medium range.

Worth bearing in mind that the ecm op has been an outlier in the medium term quite a few times recently.

Can the gfs save it's diminished r reputation and correctly forecast the coldest incursion of the winter.

I would absolutely pee my pants laughing if it did.

We await further runs with interest. Given the timescale there's a way to go yet on this one.....

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Chesil View

[January Snowstorm]

Not much mention of the Jma

Also keeps the high over us. Indeed at times the wind is more Southwest.

Certainly no Easterly here

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I’ll take the Op please.

Just keep Feb 6th as barometer.  Chaos could go our way but...

[Ladyofthestorm]

Sticking my neck out....

Predicting a beast from the east mid Feb onwards.  

Not often we see a positive NAO with a scandi high. 

 

One things for sure pressure building over UK... One way or another 

 

 

[Cold Winter Night]

Looks like the EPS 12z has moved towards the GFS/GEFS with the HRES Op on the milder side.
Not bad.

For De Bilt winds are shifting towards East Day 6-9, compared to the 0z.
Colder ensemble Days 6-11.

[Stuie]

8 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Looks like the EPS 12z has moved towards the GFS/GEFS with the HRES Op on the milder side.
Not bad.

For De Bilt winds are shifting towards East Day 6-9, compared to the 0z.
Colder ensemble Days 6-11.

Thanks for highlighting my Feb 6th FI thoughts.

[Marting]

Looks like ECM was at high end, even an outlier at the end 

[LRD]

Unusual chart from GFS 12z at 144

[LRD]

ECM - an 850s warm outlier for about 3 days

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

ECM - an 850s warm outlier for about 3 days

Which is why nothing is resolved imho.  

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

@Cold Winter Night @Singularity @Kirkcaldy Weather maybe some vindication for us.... 

 

 

 

If the MJO at phase 3 works out as highlighted , then it’s looking good through 4/5/6 too according to those images!! 
We should have a much clearer idea in the morning - we need at least 3 of the 4 big guns showing a  GFS like set up before being semi - confident. And another little tweak on the METO long range of course!! 
At this stage I’m not holding my breath, it’ll be a sad forum tomorrow if they back away!! 
 

FWIW this it what the GFS run has for the SE on The - snow showers setting off!! 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Ali1977

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

@Cold Winter Night @Singularity @Kirkcaldy Weather maybe some vindication for us.... 

 

 

 

There's a tonne of stuff unfolding thanks to these Indian Ocean phases, besides the blocking arriving within the models now, its having a huge factor in possibly bringing the La Ninà near its demise with a big Westerly Wind Burst across the Indian Ocean 

Bit of timing still to be worked out for the move to phase 4 with todays JMA keeping firmly in phase 3 even into week 2 of February 

Extended movement still could be promising for further fun by End of Feb + into March 

tho that's obviously for future focus, we've got enough to enjoy for the next couple of weeks 🌨🌨

 

[Ali1977]

Probably between 10-15 percent of the EC ENS following the GFS at T198, but many are similar to the control which won’t take much tweaking to be good. 

 

Id say this mornings mean looked better than the latest run by day 9, let’s hope for a great set tomorrow morning. There’s clearly a chance on a good set up

Edited January 31, 2023 by Ali1977

[blizzard81]

Improvement from the icon 18z compared to the 12z.

[Gowon]

ICON similar to UKMO at 120 now

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, LRD said:

ECM - an 850s warm outlier for about 3 days

 

Yes, as suspected it goes AWOL after 72h, good news.

Still the ensemble mean doesn't back the Beast yet but we are definitely in the game.

Could be a lot of changes all around tomorrow one way or another.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

ICON similar to UKMO at 120 now

Ukmo is much more 'toppler' compared to the 18z icon. 

[Nick F]

Anyone hiding behind the sofa in anticipation of the GFS pub run rolling out?

18z ICON looks like it's disrupting the trough further west over Scandi - which is better in terms of gettng an easterly to our shores thereafter ...

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Ukmo is much more 'toppler' compared to the 18z icon. 

Hard to tell, but the UKMO has slightly lower heights over Svalbard 

[bluearmy]

Housekeeping- gfs 12z wasn’t quite an ssw  - pretty much as close as you an get but not reversed at 60N 

anyway the assumption is that gfs is over amplified and even if we are to see a scandi ridge, it won’t have as much traction as the gfs 12z showed 

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Which is why nothing is resolved imho.  

The crux- of warm- outliers, is what you’d want to see via chucking suites- b4 any easterly incursion!.. as the mobile syncs gets misinterpreted due to model bias/ deciphering!!.. another feather in the possible oute- note of easterly/ PC twisting!

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Hard to tell, but the UKMO has slightly lower heights over Svalbard 

When I look at those two charts you posted, the ukmo is only going one way. It's more 50/50 with the icon. We will never know which way it goes of course. 

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The crux- of warm- outliers, is what you’d want to see via chucking suites- b4 any easterly incursion!.. as the mobile syncs gets misinterpreted due to model bias/ deciphering!!.. another feather in the possible oute- note of easterly/ PC twisting!

I agree to a certain extent but having seen eastlies go awol at T72 when all have been on board plus the met then it’s awaiting and hoping game for good while yet.  I’ll be wearing my lucky pants in the morning for the ukmo though.

Edited January 31, 2023 by That ECM

[blizzard81]

Gfs 18z looking slightly flatter. Not much in it though.