Model Output Discussion - Into February

[northwestsnow]

Don't want Yukmo verifying !!!

Hopefully a brainfart.

[Mucka]

8 hours ago, nick sussex said:

There are still early differences between the models .

The GFS has a trigger shortwave and at the same time takes that low south Greenland ne and this becomes absorbed .

You can see that here . 

Day 4 low pressure is heading ne , shortwave energy is about to be ejected se.

Day 5 that low has become absorbed , the trigger shortwave is ejected se.

The ECM handles this differently .

Day 4 you can see that low pressure south Greenland , this is moving east .

Day 5 that low has moved east .

We don’t want a middle ground solution here .

So either an early trigger shortwave or the low clearing east with decent clearance between that and the upstream troughing .

That shortwave/trigger low comes more S  and further W if GFS is right about a more significant ridge being thrown up ahead the main ridge, otherwise as you point out we are more in muddied waters and the longer game.

UKMO has had no interest in such a prominent ridge ahead of the main event which forces that low S further W thus far and this afternoon is no different.

However GEM is a little more inclined than previous runs to make it more prominent  and so it will be interesting tos ee where that run goes as well.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

Time to wheel out everyone's favourite catchphrase...... "Big ecm coming up"

Edited January 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[seabreeze86]

Meanwhile the GFS just plods on. -8 Celsius 850hpa knocking on the door from the east and west 

Edited January 31, 2023 by seabreeze86

[January Snowstorm]

On recent form you simply couldn't have confidence in the gfs!! More especially as the ukmo says no and indeed icon

[northwestsnow]

GFS brings it on ..lovely stuff.

GFS won't be correct i don't think sadly....

[ICE COLD]

Well the beast is in on the gfs

[nick sussex]

Arpege follows the GFS and GEM .

The UKMO needs to do one ! 

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS brings it on ..lovely stuff.

GFS won't be correct i don't think sadly....

Gem might just make it, however not quite as good as GFS,

Edited January 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[TSNWK]

Heart   for gfs.. but head says you have to back ukm 95% of time at day 4 which is where it went a different path  but there is no way I'm stopping viewing gfs which at 174 has the beast with -12 uppers over us and colder air incoming . Itz beauty gang.. 

[That ECM]

Nervous times.

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Arpege follows the GFS and GEM .

The UKMO needs to do one ! 

 

The plot thickens Arpege is good to have on our side though 

[TSNWK]

Gfs 12z is run of the season  has -12 uppers over eastern half and streamers setting up with more to come this time next week   

[Mucka]

We have seen this sort of scenario so often in the past.

1. There are hints of a Scandi high somewhere in the output

2. The hint grows into a nudge and other models start to come on board.

3. We get model consensus on a Beasterly 6/7 days out.

4. we see stunning winter wonderland charts and a snow a plenty and the forum is high.

5. Five days out one of the models has a wobble

6. The other models start to waver and it is hope V doom

7. The Easterly vanishes and is replaced by mild Westerlies, meltdown.

 

Let's hope this time is different.

[Mike Poole]

Extraordinary from the GFS tonight, T186:

Just that nagging doubt there over the early differences with UKMO, but hey!

[nick sussex]

The lack of clearance between the UKMO low and the upstream troughing is a big issue between day 5 and 6.

Whats really bizarre though is the 00hrs ECM ensembles showed little interest in the GFS op.

We have two options tonight which can save us ! Either the ECM backs the GFS or it can stay with its earlier evolution which was okay.

Under no circumstances do we want it following that UKMO horror show !

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The lack of clearance between the UKMO low and the upstream troughing is a big issue between day 5 and 6.

Whats really bizarre though is the 00hrs ECM ensembles showed little interest in the GFS op.

We have two options tonight which can save us ! Either the ECM backs the GFS or it can stay with its earlier evolution which was okay.

Under no circumstances do we want it following that UKMO horror show !

I can't see one gefs member that does what the ukmo does at 90 hours.

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Mucka said:

We have seen this sort of scenario so often in the past.

1. There are hints of a Scandi high somewhere in the output

2. The hint grows into a nudge and other models start to come on board.

3. We get model consensus on a Beasterly 6/7 days out.

4. we see stunning winter wonderland charts and a snow a plenty and the forum is high.

5. Five days out one of the models has a wobble

6. The other models start to waver and it is hope V doom

7. The Easterly vanishes and is replaced by mild Westerlies, meltdown.

 

Let's hope this time is different.

That's a fair analysis on what can happen but as always, subtle shifts in the short term can alter the longer term pattern. There is no doubts we may see a blocking pattern but whether it affects the UK weather or not is from clear.

For me it seems an almighty battle against the huge PV over Greenland, its one of those where the blocking is trying but most runs so far does not have the blocking affecting us in a positive way for cold. A cold Easterly does seem to be less likely scenario so far.

 

[Chertseystreamer79]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

We have seen this sort of scenario so often in the past.

1. There are hints of a Scandi high somewhere in the output

2. The hint grows into a nudge and other models start to come on board.

3. We get model consensus on a Beasterly 6/7 days out.

4. we see stunning winter wonderland charts and a snow a plenty and the forum is high.

5. Five days out one of the models has a wobble

6. The other models start to waver and it is hope V doom

7. The Easterly vanishes and is replaced by mild Westerlies, meltdown.

 

Let's hope this time is different.

This time and time again!

[goosey007]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Extraordinary from the GFS tonight, T186:

Just that nagging doubt there over the early differences with UKMO, but hey!

This will be the third time GFS has led us down the garden path this will be the biggest one of the Lot

[nick sussex]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I can't see one gefs member that does what the ukmo does at 90 hours.

It’s like the Twilight Zone ! The GEFS and the earlier ECM ensembles are on a different planet .

 

 

[Mucka]

GFS ensemble mean out to 96h is slightly better than 06z re that leading ridge but a good 40% of runs are flatter like UKMO.

When GEM trends differently then the later ECM runs often mirrors the change so I'm going to guess it will produce an easterly in some form this evening, we will soon see.

[mulzy]

I wish it was the other way round - UKMO being great and GFS showing crud.

UKMO output has put a spanner into many a potential cold spell.

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

On recent form you simply couldn't have confidence in the gfs!! More especially as the ukmo says no and indeed icon

Are you sure January Snowstorm. Who was it that first picked up the signal for a Scandi High with no support from the Ensembles. If the GFS is correct it will deserves Kudos for doing so. The fact the UKMO long range is even mentioning a chance of colder weather from the east is a significant change from what they were saying last week. 

[johncam]

4 hours ago, Gowon said:

Outside.... in the future ( supposing the GFS is correct)

Not here , according to GFS 06 ,we get 2 frosts out of 14 days , daily max between 6C and 10C